NFL Playoff Picks 2015: Over/Under Odds and Divisional-Round Predictions
NFL bettors need to make the most of these last few weeks.
After a season in which wild upsets rocked the boat, the divisional round of the postseason gives bettors a chance to finish strong before the Super Bowl, as NFL Network's Gil Brandt illustrates:
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
Why stop there?
If each outcome is so obvious, which Las Vegas seems to suggest, why not put unused energy into further generating capital? This hints at over/under calls, of course, which are much trickier than these matchups outright.
If not for the coin, do it for the sheer challenge.
2015 NFL Divisional Round Schedule and Predictions
| Baltimore at New England | Sat, Jan. 10 at 4:35 p.m. | NBC | NE -7 (48) | NE (U) | Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have had plenty of time to prepare, not to mention tout a top-10 run defense. |
| Indianapolis at Denver | Sun, Jan. 11 at 4:40 p.m. | CBS | DEN -7 (54) | DEN (U) | Even if Peyton Manning struggles, Denver's ability to run the ball and Indianapolis' lack thereof will be the difference. |
| Carolina at Seattle | Sat, Jan. 10 at 8:15 p.m. | FOX | SEA -11 (40) | CAR (O) | See analysis below. |
| Dallas at Green Bay | Sun, Jan. 11 at 1:05 p.m. | FOX | GB -6.5 (52.5) | GB (O) | See analysis below. |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 9 p.m. ET on Jan. 9.
Top Over/Under Odds to Bet
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: (52.5)
See, this one at face value is simple.
The Green Bay Packers are undefeated at Lambeau Field this year and boast a top-10 pass defense. Feel free to add in that the secondary is bolstered by a rush that has generated 41 sacks on the year, meaning a shaky Dallas offensive line that allowed six sacks of Tony Romo last weekend will be in trouble.
These factors in the elements all point toward a Green Bay victory, especially with Dallas accustomed to a more comfortable environment.
"It's all mental," Cowboys defensive end Jeremy Mincey said, per STATS LLC (via ESPN.com). "We've got to be mentally tough, which we are. Green Bay has to deal with it, too. You can never get use to 11-degree weather. I don't care who you are."
By just how much is another conversation entirely.
Dallas averages 29.2 points per game, while Green Bay rests at 30.4. The former figures to be a bit stifled in the cold environment, though, while the latter may not be at 100 percent effectiveness as quarterback Aaron Rodgers battles a calf injury, per ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter.
Still, even a hobbled Rodgers threw two scores and posted 30 points against the Detroit Lions in Week 17. That Lions defense still ranks 13th against the pass and first against the rush, so that 30 and Dallas' 24 against those same Lions in the wild-card round is proof enough that Sunday will be a rather high-scoring affair.
Now recall that Dallas ranks 26th against the pass. While run defense is a strength, also keep in mind that Eddie Lacy is akin to a wrecking ball as of late, rushing for a minimum of 97 yards in each of his past three games and scoring two touchdowns in that period.
Look for these two to light up the scoreboard, with the home team on top by the end of the final frame.
Prediction: Packers 36, Cowboys 27
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 40
This is a bit trickier.
The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks played to a 13-9 result in Week 8, but much has changed since then.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have lost just one game since, including a dominant six-game streak to close the season. Marshawn Lynch is in postseason mode having rushed for four touchdowns over the course of his past three games, while Richard Sherman and the defense has held five of its last six opponents to single-digit production.
These Panthers are better too, though. Cam Newton and Co. rattled off four straight wins to qualify for the postseason, while Newton himself survived a scary car crash and owns 10 total touchdowns over the course of his last four games, the final being a 27-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals in the wild-card round.
As NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano notes, though, these two are still infamous for their low-scoring encounters:
Still, 40 points is obtainable, right?
The number is actually a bit of an increase on the opening lines, too, as the news that Panthers star defensive tackle Star Lotulelei will miss the contest, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, means more potential scoring for Seattle. After all, he ranked as the 22nd-best defensive tackle in the league, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
To make matters worse for the Panthers, the defense already ranks dead last in terms of yards allowed per rush between the tackles, per ESPN Stats & Information.
Lynch's great form, paired with the fact that Seattle has scored a minimum of 20 points in three of its last four, means that the over is a sure thing, especially when Newton adds a few desperation scores of his own.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Panthers 20
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
