Cowboys vs. Packers: Early Odds, Over/Under and Spread Predictions
As soon as the Dallas Cowboys defense stopped the Detroit Lions on fourth down in the final minute of the Wild Card Round showdown, it set up a matchup between two of the NFL’s most iconic brands—the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Green Bay Packers.
The NFL couldn’t have scripted a better scenario with Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers dueling it out on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Here is a look at the early odds and over/under line, as well as some predictions for each. The point spread and over/under are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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| Sunday, Jan. 11 | 1:05 p.m. | Fox | GB -6.5 | 53 | Packers | Over |
Preview/Prediction
Something is going to have to give in this matchup because the Cowboys were a perfect 8-0 on the road, while the Packers were a perfect 8-0 at home. Six of Green Bay’s wins in Lambeau were by double digits.
Romo and Rodgers are the headliners in this one, and rightly so. Romo (113.2) and Rodgers (112.2) had the top two passer ratings in the league and top two yards-per-pass-attempt marks (Romo at 8.52 and Rodgers at 8.43). Rodgers also threw 38 touchdowns, while Romo tallied 34.
While Romo has been excellent all season and has one of the league’s best receivers in Dez Bryant (1,320 receiving yards and 16 touchdown catches) at his disposal, Dallas may need to rely on its dominant rushing game to win this one. The Packers were a solid 10th in the league against the pass, plus the cold weather may call for a more run-based attack behind a powerful Dallas offensive line.
Green Bay’s defense is also more susceptible to the run (23rd in the league) than the pass, which bodes well for the league’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray.
Murray tallied 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdown runs, and he could have his way against a vulnerable Packers run defense. To be fair, the Packers held the Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running games in check in the last two games, but both of those teams have lackluster rushing attacks at best.
Look for the Cowboys to set up Bryant on a second-half deep ball by consistently feeding Murray, which will force the Packers to creep closer to the line of scrimmage.
The game will be won, though, when the Packers are on offense. Dallas was an abysmal 26th in the league against the pass and now gets to go up against a football-playing machine in Rodgers and one of the NFL’s most lethal offenses.
In fact, no team put up more than Green Bay’s 30.4 points per game thanks to the combination of Rodgers, Eddie Lacy (1,139 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground), Jordy Nelson (1,519 receiving yards and 13 touchdown catches) and Randall Cobb (1,287 receiving yards and 12 touchdown catches).
Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com discussed why this matchup is a problem for the Dallas secondary:
"The Cowboys defense has held up well most of the season despite their lack of talent. But they did not face many top offenses, and their secondary will have to play better this week against the Packers. Dallas has given up too many big plays after the catch, and there isn't a better duo in football with the ball in their hands than Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
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Cowboys defensive end Jeremy Mincey also brought up Rodgers when discussing the game, via Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
"We don’t want a bye. We just want to take care of business one game at a time. We have to get prepared for these Packers. It’s going to be a tough challenge. A-Rod is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He’s preparing right now. We just have to be one step ahead with our preparation.
We definitely have momentum. But every week is a fight. Those guys get paid like we get paid. They’re going to fight. They’re going to go out swinging just like we went out swinging. It’s going to be a great matchup.
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Dallas simply isn’t built to deal with the Green Bay attack, which will lead to plenty of Packers points and the eventual victory. Even if the Cowboys drop more in coverage to help the porous secondary, they will be exposed by Lacy up front.
The Cowboys will also put up some points behind Murray and Bryant (hence, the over prediction on the over/under), but Green Bay is simply too potent, especially at home. The Packers will play their way to the NFC Championship Game and potentially get another shot at the Seattle Seahawks.
Prediction: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
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