NFL Wild Card Picks and Predictions: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Over the course of the NFL season, your boy—the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate—learned a number of valuable gambling lessons, but none so more valuable than this: When picking games, try not to be swayed by narrative.

It's not an easy thing to do, especially in the 24-hour news cycle of #hottakes we're currently mired in. A message is crafted over the course of a week—or in some cases, an entire season—and is delivered ad nauseam to the public, creating a perception that is (usually) far different from reality.

A perfect example of this phenomenon resided in the College Football Playoff earlier this week, when Oregon was favored to beat Florida State by a touchdown. The public pounded the underdog Seminoles, and all you heard in the buildup to the game was that FSU hadn't lost in two years, Jameis Winston wasn't getting any respect and so on and so forth. My initial inclination was to take the Seminoles to win the game outright.

But then I started studying the game. And I watched the line movement. And I quickly came to the conclusion that Oregon was going to blow Florida State out of the water. I went against my natural instinct, made the sharp turn off of narrative street and played the Ducks.

Final score: Oregon 59, Florida State 20.

Now, it doesn't always work like that. You can put yourself at a statistical advantage with a particular play, but nothing is a sure thing—that's why they call it gambling. But you always want to put yourself in the best possible position to win. In that specific instance, taking Florida State would not have been wise.

So as the NFL playoffs approach, I urge you to not get caught up in things like mystique and aura; as the pitcher Curt Schilling famously said, "Those are dancers in a nightclub." 

In this column, I'll try and debunk the narrative that's been established surrounding the four games on Wild Card Weekend and get to the bottom of each. And when you read the narrative, imagine having a conversation with some idiot you know that follows the NFL, and tell me that it isn't exactly the kind of crap that the person would mindlessly regurgitate.

It's playoff time, peeps. Are you ready?

It's time to make that money, yo.

Total Season ATS: 140-112-5 

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 44-41

Saturday: Arizona at Carolina

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Line: Arizona at Carolina (-6.5)

THE NARRATIVE: The Arizona Cardinals won't be able to move the football with third-stringer Ryan Lindley at quarterback. The Carolina Panthers might have made the playoffs with a sub-.500 record of 7-8-1, but they're ridiculously hot right now (sort of like Hansel) and are ready to roll. Plus, Carolina's playoff experience last season (albeit in a one-and-done loss to the 49ers) will benefit it greatly this year.

OK, the point on Lindley could very well be fair. Why? Because he's not very good. But last week, he at least looked like a functional quarterback, which was a marked improvement over the Blaine Gabbert impersonation he had been pulling in prior games. In Week 17 against San Francisco, Lindley threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns (to go along with three interceptions), and gave coach Bruce Arians hope that Lindley won't completely spit the bit on Saturday.

One thing about Arians that should have Cardinals bettors feeling good is his propensity to sling the ball down the field, quarterback be damned. It could be Carson Palmer, it could be Drew Stanton, it could be Lindley—hell, it could be you or me and Arians would still dial up long passing plays. The Cardinals won't let Lindley's shortcomings dictate their offensive game plan.

As for Carolina, there isn't much to debunk the narrative concerning their current run of form. The Panthers have been spectacular over the past month, rushing the football with aplomb and the opposing passer with success. Cam Newton has elevated his level of play, and all of a sudden the Panthers look dangerous.

Is Carolina ready to go out and lay the hammer down on Arizona and win by double digits? The narrative would have you believe that's the case. 

But I find it hard to believe that the Cardinals—a better team from 1-53 than the Panthers—will get blown out in a postseason game.

Before you make your pick for this game, ask yourself this question: Could you see the Cardinals winning the game outright?

If the answer is yes, you must take the points. And I absolutely give the resilient Cardinals a chance to pull off the upset, regardless of the quarterback.

I don't feel great about it, and I wouldn't recommend wagering on the game, but if I had to plop down my hard-earned cash on one side, I'd grab Lindley, Arians and the Cardinals.

The Pick: Arizona (+6.5)

Saturday: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

The Line: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)

THE NARRATIVE: The Pittsburgh Steelers are completely screwed if star running back Le'Veon Bell doesn't play with his hyperextended knee. How will they be able to move the ball without Bell? Plus, it's January and it's Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh time. The Ravens won the Super Bowl with a magical postseason ride just two years ago, and they're ready to go on a similar run once again. And did we mention that the Steelers are screwed if Bell doesn't play?

I won't sit here and use this space to lie to you and say that the Steelers will be 100 percent fine if Bell—perhaps the NFL's finest running back—doesn't suit up. 

But to insinuate that the Steelers can't win without him is pure folly. What, is star receiver Antonio Brown going to miss the game, too? How do the Ravens plan on stopping him? In two games against Baltimore this year, Brown has hauled in 18 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown. If you couldn't tell, that's pretty good.

The Ravens have an injury-riddled secondary that is susceptible to being shredded (they finished with the league's 23rd-ranked pass defense), and that will be an issue against Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. For the purposes of this exercise, let's assume Bell doesn't play. If the Steelers can get anything out of free-agent signing Ben Tate or any of the other backs on the roster, Roethlisberger should be able to carve up the back end of Baltimore's defense.

Plus, the Ravens on the road are an entirely different team than at home. Now, that isn't to say that Flacco and Co. aren't capable of making a run—they've earned the benefit of the doubt in that regard over the course of the past seven seasons— but Pittsburgh is a tough place to play, and Heinz Field will be jumping after a two-year absence from the postseason.

The bottom line is that the Steelers are at home and even without Bell, they should be able to put up enough points to win the game. I don't feel spectacular about the pick, and I certainly wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens pulled the upset, but I'll take the Steelers with a fair amount of confidence to both win and cover. 

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-3)

Sunday: Cincinnati at Indianapolis

Don Wright/Associated Press

The Line: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3)

THE NARRATIVE: OH MY GOD HAVE YOU EVER SEEN BENGALS QUARTERBACK ANDY DALTON IN A BIG GAME? HE CAN'T WIN AND OH MY GOD THERE'S ANOTHER INTERCEPTION AND MARVIN LEWIS JUST BLEW ANOTHER TIMEOUT AND MADE A CHALLENGE HE HAS NO CHANCE OF WINNING AND GOOD GOD DALTON JUST THREW ANOTHER INTERCEPTION AND THE BENGALS WILL NEVER EVER EVER (#TaylorSwiftVoice) WIN IN THE POSTSEASON WITH ANDY DALTON AND MARVIN LEWIS! And yeah, the Colts have Andrew Luck, and he's light-years better than Dalton, so the Colts will obviously win.

In the interest of full disclosure (and also because if you've read my previous Bettor's Guides, you know my feelings on the subject), I have been one of the voices in the media elite bashing Dalton and questioning his big-game credentials.

And really, has it been unfair for me (and others) to do so? In three career playoff games—all grotesque losses—Dalton has thrown for one touchdown pass and six interceptions. He was positively brutal in all three games, and it's tough to lay down hard-earned money on him in a big spot.

But damn it, forget the narrative for a second, and let's study the facts. From 1-53, the Bengals are the superior team. This is not up for debate. The Colts obviously have a major edge at quarterback with Luck, but the team around him isn't exactly the 2007 Patriots. Remember when the Colts hosted the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, and Jonas Gray rushed for something like 761 yards and 15 touchdowns? 

I'll bet you Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson remembers that result, too. And Jackson is smart enough to know that his team's best chance of winning is to control the clock and keep the ball out of Luck's hands. And the way to do that is to pound the rock with rookie running back Jeremy Hill, sprinkle in a little Giovani Bernard and take some deep shots to star receiver A.J. Green.

I'll admit that the narrative makes it tough to pick the Bengals, but just wait for Sunday morning. You just know that public money will roll in on the Colts, as the Dalton-can't-win hype train will be rolling at terminal velocity. And then I want you to look in the mirror and ask yourself this question: Did the casinos in Las Vegas build themselves?

It's also worth noting that while the majority of the public likes the Colts, the line has actually moved in favor of Cincinnati.

Don't get sucked into the narrative. Don't be like every moron and their mother and lay your cash down on the Colts.

It's time, Cincinnati. It's time, Andy. It's time, Marvin. Don't let us down.

Give me the Bengals to win the damn game outright.

The Pick: Cincinnati (+3)

Sunday: Detroit at Dallas

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

The Line: Detroit at Dallas (-7)

THE NARRATIVE: The Detroit Lions are screwed. I mean, I was reading Nick Kostos' Twitter feed earlier in the week, and he was talking up the Cowboys as a best bet! The Cowboys are white-hot, winners of four straight, and are playing their best football of the season when it matters the most. The new triplets—quarterback Tony Romo, running back DeMarco Murray and receiver Dez Bryant—appear unstoppable. Plus, the Lions just embarrassed themselves in a Week 17 loss to the Packers, and let's be real here, what the hell has Matthew Stafford ever won to make you feel confident? The Lions have never won a Super Bowl, and that isn't about to start now. And plus, we just can't wait for the Cowboys and Packers in the Ice Bowl rematch at Lambeau next week!

This game is the perfect example of narrative overtaking common sense. Once the playoff matchups were locked in, I immediately identified the Cowboys as my best bet of the week. After all, Dallas is on a major roll, and the Lions didn't look great down the stretch. I couldn't wait to take Dallas.

But as the week wore on, I started noticing some troubling trends. I noticed that the public is (unsurprisingly) behind Dallas—but despite all that love, the line never moved in Dallas' direction. In fact, when it has moved, it's been toward Detroit!

What does that mean, dear reader? It means that the bettors who actually know what they're doing like the Lions to cover the spread.

Think about it: Every schmuck out there (including yours truly earlier in the week) believes the Cowboys are a shoo-in to win. People are already getting excited for Cowboys/Packers next week at Lambeau. And by now, you should know what that means.

Is it unfathomable to think that the Cowboys will come out tight at home in a big spot? And is it unrealistic to believe that the Lions—who have been a different outfit this year under first-year coach Jim Caldwell—will play well? 

I'm expecting Lions quarterback Stafford to connect early and often with stud receiver Calvin Johnson and keep Detroit in the game throughout. Plus, the fact that Detroit defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will be in the lineup is a big deal—after all, the Lions finished the year with the league's top-ranked rushing defense, and they'll need it against Dallas' offensive line and Murray.

Much like with Oregon and Florida State, I'm going against my initial lean. I'm not getting caught up in the narrative. I'm putting myself on the side that I believe is more likely to come through.

The Lions covering the touchdown spread is my best bet of the week, homie.

The Pick: Detroit (+7)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week Against the Spread

1. Detroit (+7 at Dallas)
2. Cincinnati (+3 at Indianapolis)
3. Pittsburgh (-3 vs. Baltimore)
4. Arizona (+6.5 at Carolina)

Best Under Bets of the Week

1. Pittsburgh at Baltimore (under 45 points)

Best Over Bets of the Week

1. Arizona at Carolina (over 38 points)
2. Cincinnati at Indianapolis (over 49 points)
3. Detroit at Dallas (over 48 points)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

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