NFL Playoff Picks 2014-15: Odds and Predictions for All Wild-Card Matchups

Las Vegas knows how to deal with the 2014-15 NFL playoffs.

An AFC North encounter between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers? Might as well be an even line. The notorious Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Indianapolis? Andrew Luck and the Colts by six, but the road team might just be talented enough to keep it closer.

Look, Vegas lines exist to put the house at an advantage. The opening batch of postseason games is in no way great from a betting standpoint. That would be what Vegas and the NFL want, of course.

That will not stop bettors. For those brave enough to test the waters, here is an initial dip at least to take the temperature.

2014-15 NFL Playoff Schedule

Wild Card Weekend Odds and Predictions

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals vs. No. 4 Carolina Panthers (Saturday, Jan. 3)	CAR -6	CAR	Carolina is hot at the right time and will stand tall against a second- or third-string quarterback.
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (Saturday, Jan. 3)	PIT -3	BAL	Pittsburgh may be without Le'Veon Bell, something the stellar Baltimore defense will take advantage of on the way to a gritty win.
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals vs. No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, Jan. 4)	IND -6	CIN	See analysis below.
No. 6 Detroit Lions vs. No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, Jan. 4)	DAL -7.5	DAL	See analysis below.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 30.

Predictions

Andrew Luck Trumps Bengals Again

Sanford Myers/Associated Press

Luck knows all about the Bengals. 

Way back in Week 7, Luck welcomed the shaky Cincinnati defense to town and threw for 344 yards and a pair of touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton was his favorite target, hence the seven receptions for 107 yards.

Luck also utilized both of his tight ends—an issue Cincinnati annually struggles with—to full effect. Coby Fleener caught four passes for 64 yards, and Dwayne Allen caught three for 52 and a score.

Prepare for a repeat performance.

There is concern for Luck, who has 4,761 yards and 40 scores this year. ESPN's Jon Gruden is a chief advocate of this, as captured by Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times:

Coach Chuck Pagano echoed these sentiments recently as well due to an injured offensive line, per ESPN.com's Mike Wells.

“We’ve had a bunch of different lineups in there,” Pagano said. “Our offensive line has to play well, and they have to do a great job to open up some holes for our run game and do a great job protecting the quarterback.”

Fair enough, but a matchup against the same Bengals at home is quite a blessing. 

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

These Bengals have a miserable 20 sacks on the year. Granted, two of those came against Luck, but the point stands—Pagano and Co. shifted to more of a short-pass approach late in the season to protect the quarterback.

Luck has not been sacked in four consecutive games on passes that were in the air for 10 yards or less, according to Wells.

Against a soft rush with a new approach in hand, Luck is in for a major day against a 20th-ranked pass defense.

Prediction: Colts 27, Bengals 23

DeMarco Murray Hits Cruise Control

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

What should be a war of wills was almost without a ton of luster. 

First, a note from ESPN's Ed Werder that sets the stage:

At first, it looked as if that elite Detroit defense would be without Ndamukong Suh due to suspension.

Suh, the guy the entire defense revolves around. Suh, the guy who clogs lanes and applies pressure while creating plenty of room for linebackers to go to work and defensive backs to spend less time in coverage. 

Then Suh won his appeal, per Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.

DeMarco Murray would put on a show either way. The owner of 1,845 yards and 13 scores, the former Oklahoma standout bowls over most defenses and has 12 100-yard performances to show for it.

Tony Romo figures to struggle a bit with a 13th-ranked pass defense, but a run defense mired in adversity may mean Murray will post bigger gains than usual on each carry.

Where Murray is most valuable, though, is when it comes to eating the clock and controlling the pace. Matthew Stafford, along with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, will take full advantage of a Dallas defense that ranks 26th against the pass.

Murray can keep his defense off the field with chain-moving gains at a consistent clip.

While he may shoulder the most pressure of any star player in the opening round of the postseason, Murray has yet to falter. Logic says the best chance of it happening would be against a defense like Detroit, but a bet against him at this point is akin to throwing money in a fire.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Lions 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).