Dave Lozo's Bag Skate: Is the Lack of Winter Classic Buzz Being Overblown?

What's the buzz like for the 2015 Winter Classic?

This is a question I've been asked a couple times during radio interviews and one I've heard posed to other hockey media people. I usually give a 45-second non-answer when, really, I could answer it in one second.

I don't know.

I live in New Jersey. The game is between Chicago and Washington. None of my friends care about it, so how exactly am I (or anyone) for that matter an authority on buzz? I am not a buzz master. I feel like most other people aren't buzz masters, either. The only buzz master I acknowledge is Buzz from Home Alone.

This year's game at Nationals Park between the Blackhawks and Capitals is the seventh edition of the NHL's marquee regular-season event. There were six outdoor games last season. This is the third outdoor game in seven seasons and second in 10 months for the Blackhawks; it's the second in five seasons for the Capitals.

If the Winter Classic were a television show, it's officially at that point where you're probably bored of the characters and a lot of aspects of the show feel repetitive. "The Blackhawks? Outside? Didn't we watch this one already? What else is on the DVR?"

On the surface, yes, it's understandable why the notion that the "buzz" around the event is down compared to previous years. A lot of people are in search of the buzz, not unlike my college roommate who flunked out freshman year.

Scott Burnside of ESPN.com wrote about the lack of Winter Classic buzz on Dec. 17. Josh Cooper of Puck Daddy mentioned a lack of buzz in passing the day before Burnside's story. A Christmas Eve story in the Chicago Sun-Times talked about a lack of buzz. Stephen Whyno of The Canadian Press also said there's no buzz. There's even a message board thread on the Capitals' official website discussing the perceived lack of buzz.

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

It should be noted: All this buzz talk (this story will be the No. 1 result for all "buzz" searches until the end of time) coincides with the fact that this game sold out a long time ago. Sure, the NHL would love to have a buzzworthy event that tops SportsCenter all week leading to the game, but as long as the game sells out and the ratings are high and fans are paying money for merchandise, you can release a swarm of bees in your house if you want to hear a buzz for all the league cares.

Is there even a way to quantify buzz?

The best social media analytics can be considered faulty. I talked to a couple social media experts and they said that metrics used to measure "buzz" aren't 100 percent. But I looked into how often the phrase "Winter Classic" has been tweeted over the past month in an effort to determine fan excitement. There are glaring flaws to this method, as "Winter Classic can't wait!" registers equally to "Winter Classic #yawn" but at least it's something.

Via Topsy, the phrase "Winter Classic" has been tweeted a little more than 40,000 times over the past 30 days. That sure seems like a lot. Or maybe that's really bad. After all, "Justin Bieber" was tweeted about 23 million times over that same period, so it's all relative.

Here are some other keyword searches over the past 30 days to offer a comparison.

• "NFL playoffs" has right around 40,000 mentions, which is on par with the Winter Classic. Considering the playoffs start next week and the buildup is probably far more interesting to far more people over a longer time period, this seems like a feather in the cap of the Winter Classic. 

• Sticking with the NFL, there have been 316,000 tweets about Jim Harbaugh, with about half of them in the past two days as he left the San Francisco 49ers and went to the University of Michigan. No shame there. No outdoor game can compete with a fiery dad in khaki pants.

Brian Babineau/Getty Images

• What about the College Football Playoff, which will start not long after the conclusion of Blackhawks-Capitals on Thursday? There have been nearly 140,000 "College Football Playoff" tweets the past 30 days. That's something to keep in mind if the Winter Classic faces a weather delay and is forced to start during one of the two NCAA semifinal games.

• Maybe this one is a tad weird, but there were about 54,000 tweets with "NBA Christmas" in them with more than half occurring during the league's Christmas Day five-game slate. The NBA owns Christmas the way the NHL would like to own New Year's Day, but obviously those five games don't have the cachet of the Winter Classic. Still, there wasn't much "buzz" about those five games in the days preceding them.

According to Awful Announcing, the networks that aired those NBA games (ABC, ESPN, TNT) all enjoyed increased ratings almost entirely across the board. This is a whole lot of apples and oranges with at best mediocre data, no question, but the NBA did quite well on its holiday showcase and I don't remember hearing anyone concerned about buzz for 12 hours of hoops.

Last season's Winter Classic between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs was unique in that it involved a team from a Canadian market and was two years in the making because of a lockout. The NHL reported that 8.2 million people in the United States and Canada watched the game on television, a record that bested the mark of 6.6 million for the Penguins and Capitals in 2011.

Where will that leave the 2015 game?

Probably short of both of those marks, as Canada likely doesn't care that much about this Canadian-less, Original 18 matchup that lacks Sidney Crosby. The 2012 Winter Classic between the Rangers and Flyers had the worst ratings in the history of the event, yet I don't recall much worry about buzz for that one. 

Here's a prediction that this game comes close to the Capitals-Penguins game numbers, at least in the United States, and this lack of buzz chatter is overblown and merely our (media) own malaise about working the same event multiple times and being jaded people. 

The NHL is still a niche sport. Chicago and Washington are two pretty good markets that don't have much interest in college football and even less interest in the NFL playoffs with their local teams missing out.

This game will do just fine.

Quote of the Week: Jon Cooper vs. Darryl Sutter

Lightning coach Jon Cooper and Kings coach Darryl Sutter are the two most quotable coaches in the NHL. Each week, we will let you decide who had the best quote.

This is easily my favorite thing to research every Monday, as I think even the most uninteresting of Cooper/Sutter quotes are great. I listened to this Cooper radio interview and nothing was quotable but it was still educational and, as someone who lives in the New York media market, it's a novelty to hear a sports talk show discussing hockey.

So with the holiday break eating three days of potential coach interactions with the media, I'll go with Cooper seemingly throwing shade at the Toronto Maple Leafs but in reality is probably just speaking plainly and truthfully.

The Lightning beat the Leafs 3-2 at home on Monday and outshot them 41-23, so clearly Cooper was on to something.

Sutter was equally hamstrung because of the holiday break, as he failed to make me LOL (laugh out loud, old people) at all this week, which I'm sure devastates him. He had a couple B-/C+ quotes and this one about getting into the playoffs is the one I enjoyed most:

"

Well, you can’t buy your way in. You don’t get any extra points for something you did last year. It’s really simple math, and it’s difficult.

"

We will all do better next week. It's that simple but it's also difficult.

KHL Thing of the Week

We will keep it in the family this week and look at what Jonathan Willis wrote about the KHL's economic collapse and what it means for the NHL and North America as a whole.

Oleg Nikishin/Getty Images

Essentially, if the ruble doesn't rebound and players don't get paid, the NHL should reap the long-term benefits. It will be little things, like players of Vladimir Sobotka's caliber (which is a nice caliber) staying in the NHL instead of getting better money in the KHL and veterans staying in the AHL and offering stronger options for in-season call-ups. 

The one area where people don't believe the NHL will benefit is star players like Ilya Kovalchuk and Alex Radulov returning to North America. It seems that with fringe NHL players bolting the KHL, more of an emphasis will be placed on retaining the stars, which could mean more money for them.

That seems like a bad long-term strategy, but for now the NHL can sit back and wait for players to return home, making it an even better league.

Who Is Connor McDavid-ing This Week?

The tank battle for Connor McDavid will be quite the scene this season as teams stumble over each other to finish last in the standings, thus guaranteeing either McDavid or future American hero Jack Eichel.

30. Edmonton Oilers (7-22-7, 21 pts)

The Oilers' last road win was Nov. 9 against the Rangers at Madison Square Garden. They have one win overall in their past 21 games. With a 10-point gap between them and the 28th-place Sabres, the Oilers are almost guaranteed either McDavid or Eichel with more than half the season left.

As far as tank jobs go, this will be the one all future tank jobs are measured against. Kudos, Edmonton.

29. Carolina Hurricanes (10-22-4, 24 pts)

The best way to facilitate a tanking is to not score. If you don't score, you can't win. The Hurricanes have done their part of late by scoring two goals or fewer in 13 of 14 games and they've reached two goals only three times. They've been shut out once and held to one goal nine times.

Alexander Semin has one goal in 22 games, but once he gets McDavid as his regular center next season, he should start paying dividends on his five-year, $35 million contract. 

Bill Wippert/Getty Images

28. Buffalo Sabres (14-20-3, 31 pts)

Can you believe how hard the Sabres have been trying for more than a month now? It's shameful. They are 11-7-1 in their past 19 games, which is terrific if you're ultimate goal isn't the top pick in the 2015 draft but it's devastating if that's your prime objective.

This hot streak has pushed the Sabres all the way to 28th in the standings. They've lost five of six, so perhaps they've gotten things back on track in Buffalo. 

Goal of the Week

On a short week with a three-day holiday break, there are fewer opportunities to find a great goal. I wondered if I would have to soil the integrity of this segment and settle for a so-so goal with limited choices.

Gustav Nyquist made sure that wouldn't be a problem.

I mean, maybe you want to deduct points because this happens during four-on-four play, but goodness. If you can skate with the puck for 30 seconds in the NHL, whether it's five-on-five, four-on-four or three-on-three and no one can take it from you, that alone is special. But then the goal? To win it?

This is my favorite goal this season. Hands down.

Questions and Answers

Got a question? Tweet me @davelozo or email me at [e-mail], but please don't call before 9 a.m. I will answer any of your questions about hockey or whatever if it's a good question.

This is an excellent, important question. But before we delve into this topic, let us first address the fact Connor McDavid is infringing upon my #brand.

Kristina Rutherford of Sportsnet conducted an interesting interview with McDavid that touched on everything you'd expect, but the payoff was at the end. She asked if there was anything people didn't know about him, and this was McDavid's answer:

"

Well, I probably know every Friends episode ever taped. Me and my brother are absolute Friends goofies. We watch it all the time. We have all the series on DVD. We’ve watched every single episode at least three or four times now. If you wanted to play me and my brother in Friends trivia, I don’t think there’s a chance you’d beat us.

"

Listen here, Connor, I would utterly destroy you and leave you with an uncooked turkey over your head. We would switch apartments. Get it? Those were Friends references.

Who are you, anyway, to come along and try to steal my thing? If anyone is going to make dated references to a television show that's been off the air for almost 15 years, it's me. Shouldn't you be watching Tosh.0 or a reality show that stars Rob Dyrdek?

Anyway, to answer the question, Connor McDavid should be known as "Con-Air." It sounds cool, plays off his name and references something else from the 1990s that he may enjoy. You're welcome, Con-Air.

 Probably not. I think they can hang around again like they did last year. If Jonathan Bernier plays out of his mind, it's possible, but I wouldn't wager on it.

There are at least two teams behind them (Boston, Florida) that I think overtake them and maybe even a third (Columbus) that will also make a move. This season is setting up much like last season, so Bernier will have to offset all the massive shot differentials. 

It will also make for a question I can answer in list form. I'm not getting into explanations because they would all boil down to, "I think that guy is better," so you can yell about them in the comments knowing this. 

I will only include coaches with at least three years of experience starting in 2000-01, so this way I'm not leading the list with Scotty Bowman, who retired after the 2001-02 season.

Bill Wippert/Getty Images

1. Mike Babcock

2. Ken Hitchcock

3. Claude Julien

4. Joel Quenneville

5. Peter Laviolette

6. Barry Trotz

7. Todd McLellan

8. Jon Cooper (he's in his third season)

9. Darryl Sutter

10. Alain Vigneault

Just missed: Dave Tippett, Paul Maurice 

They'd be a good one, that's for sure. With that in mind, we must rule out any rom-com starring Gerard Butler.

Let's examine the characteristics of the Lightning.

They have a young, entertaining leading man (Steven Stamkos) and a cool father-figure type (Jon Cooper) as coach. The team plays its games in a sunny locale. The ultimate goal is a Stanley Cup and there are some people who believe they can do it but they are definitely not the usual favorite. The Lightning are fun to watch.

That's why the Lightning are She's All That.

James Neal.

"

@DaveLozo you think islanders should make a move for a top line wing by trading some prospects like reinhart or possibly brock nelson

— Jesse Sutz (@ztusessej) December 29, 2014"

No.  

Last two in: Washington and N.Y. Rangers

First two out: Florida and Columbus

I think Boston eventually gets it together and Toronto fades. Part of me thinks the regular-season finale between the Rangers and Capitals could decide the final playoff spot in the East. 

I'm not sure. Let's watch together and decide the proper course of action.

Yes, go to a hospital immediately. Well, no, actually. I died watching this and medical attention for the dead is pointless. Watching this is like watching that video in The Ring. There is no saving us now.

"

@DaveLozo Dearest David, what team do you expect to make the biggest run in the 2nd half of the year? (i.e. Kings their first cup year)

— Jack (@JLM925) December 29, 2014"

A good way to predict this is by perusing only the fanciest of stats. Generally speaking, a team with a low PDO and good possession numbers has been a victim of bad luck which will likely change over the course of the season.

Bruce Kluckhohn/Getty Images

Of the 14 teams outside the playoffs, the one that jumps out at me is Minnesota.

The Wild are fourth in Fenwick at 54.2 percent but 25th in PDO at 98.6. The overriding problem this season has been goaltending, which is evidenced in the team's league-worst .900 save percentage at even strength.

Darcy Kuemper (.903) and Niklas Backstrom (.901) are far below each's career save percentage marks. It's tough to think they won't improve on those numbers over the second half the season, at least somewhat.

There's nothing all that remarkable about the Wild's schedule over the second half the season: They play 20 of 41 games at home and their remaining strength of schedule as of Tuesday is the ninth-easiest in the league but only the eighth-easiest in the conference.

So it comes down to goaltending and how much you value the fancy stats. In this, I value them a lot, so they are my pick to be the best of the also-rans right now.

All statistics via NHL.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.

Dave Lozo covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveLozo.