Week 17 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Final Review of Most Difficult Fantasy Matchups

As in real-life football, the best fantasy teams are strong not just with their foundational superstars, but also loaded with depth.  Building a deep bench during the fantasy regular season was necessary for surviving bye-week attrition, but even during championship Sunday, it can come in handy.

Having choices is absolutely crucial if your fantasy season extends through the final week, as there are numerous stars who are simply unreliable at this point.  Though many DeMarco Murray and Tom Brady owners have likely depended upon those players to reach this point, there's a strong chance those owners will get left at the championship altar.

Taking a look at the latest news and examining some of the toughest matchups, let's make a call on those borderline starters who can make or break your week.

Start 'Em 

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Position	Player	Opponent
QB	Cam Newton, CAR	@ Falcons
RB	Devonta Freeman, ATL	vs. Panthers
RB	Andre Williams, NYG	vs. Eagles
WR	Andre Johnson, HOU	vs. Jaguars
WR	Charles Johnson, MIN	vs. Bears
TE	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	@ Steelers

Much like his team, Cam Newton has come on strong during the Carolina Panthers' three-game winning streak.  Despite missing the Week 15 game after his car accident, Newton has posted a combined 57 fantasy points in his last two starts, with just a single turnover and seven total touchdowns, including two on the ground.

That complementary running game made Newton a preseason darling, and Carolina's increased read-option usage, even within passing concepts, has restored his value.  This Sunday, Newton warrants must-start status against an Atlanta Falcons defense that conceded 7.9 yards per attempt to him in their first meeting, Newton's fourth-highest single-game rate of the season.

At running back, a pair of rookies stand out as sneaky flex or No. 2 options this weekend.  Devonta Freeman has been Atlanta's best back this season, averaging 5.3 yards per touch this year.  With Steven Jackson likely to miss the NFC South championship tilt due to a thigh injury, Freeman is in line to cash in on that per-play efficiency, though snaps could be an issue:

Jacquizz Rodgers has been more of a passing back for Atlanta this year, as Freeman has actually received more carries (59 to 49).  Assuming that Rodgers remains in that role, Freeman would be in line for the early-down carries.  Carolina's run D is no pushover, having allowed 10 or fewer fantasy points in five of its past six outings, but given that Freeman is owned in just 8.3 percent of leagues, he's worth an add for his upside if you're in need of flex options.

Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

Andre Williams is a much more bankable commodity, as the Boston College product has carried the workload over the past three games.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, Williams' 68 carries since Week 14 is the fourth-most in the league over that span.  

In the New York Giants' season finale, Williams will get a previously stiff Philadelphia Eagles defense that has collapsed since their impressive Thanksgiving Day win at Arlington.  In Philly's three-game losing streak, their once-stout front seven has allowed an average of 22.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including five touchdowns.  With the Eagles having nothing left to play for, Williams is poised to exploit Philly's imploding defense.

Among wide receivers, Andre Johnson was once one of the league's most bankable commodities.  However, second-year pro DeAndre Hopkins had surpassed the likely future Hall of Famer is no longer the Houston Texans' top option.  But with Case Keenum back in the lineup, Johnson received 13 targets, his highest total of the season.  This is not a new trend, as Johnson saw a big uptick in productivity during Keenum's eight starts last year:

	Targets	Catches	Rec. Yds.	Rec. TDs
With Keenum (8 gms)	94	55	800	5
Without Keenum (8 gms)	87	47	607	0

This week, Johnson will get an opportunity to avenge himself against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who concussed him during the teams' Week 14 meeting.  His efficiency might be a wild card, but with Keenum under center, Johnson should at least receive the most volume of Houston's receivers.

Minnesota Vikings top receiver Charles Johnson has seen his numbers fall off the past two weeks, with just 10 combined fantasy points.  However, he has still accrued a team-high 13 targets in that time, suggesting some positive regression to the mean is in store.

Teddy Bridgewater's top target will get an extremely favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including at least 20 points in five of the past seven weeks.  Johnson had seven catches for 87 yards at Soldier Field earlier this season, and he could continue to exploit a slowly imploding Bears squad on Sunday.

At tight end, Jermaine Gresham has scored touchdowns in each of the past two games he suited up for.  One of those was against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year, tied for fifth-most in the league.  Because he's a relatively strong candidate to find the end zone, Gresham stands out as a low-end No. 1 TE this week.

Sit 'Em

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Position	Player	Opponent
QB	Tom Brady, NE	vs. Bills
RB	DeMarco Murray, DAL	@ Washington
RB	Chris Ivory, NYJ	@ Dolphins
WR	Kenny Stills, NO	@ Buccaneers
WR	Jarvis Landry, MIA	vs. Jets
TE	Larry Donnell, NYG	vs. Eagles

Tom Brady may be one of the league's most bankable fantasy options, but he's virtually unplayable on Sunday.  With the New England Patriots having sealed home-field advantage, most expect Brady out of the game by the end of the first half:

ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss, who's as plugged-in as any team beat reporter, believes the Patriots will treat Sunday's contest as a preseason contest, putting Brady in for a couple of series and pulling him if the result turns out well.  You'll likely be able to find a better alternative on waivers this week.

Similarly, DeMarco Murray may be the fantasy MVP for this season, but he's a wholly unreliable option for Week 17.  The Dallas Cowboys have been clear about their intentions to play their starters this week, even though they will likely be the No. 3 seed.  However, the smoke signals surrounding Murray are unclear, to say the least:

That sentiment would seemingly be encouraging, except when you realize that Murray is just 29 yards away from breaking Emmitt Smith's franchise record.  It's not difficult to envision Murray taking a few early handoffs before earning the record and resting his surgically repaired hand the rest of the day.  Murray might still be flex-play worthy, but if you have more bankable bench depth, that would be the safer option to roll with.

Chris Ivory also has playing-time concerns, albeit of a different kind.  The bruising fifth-year back has slowed down after a hot start, with just one score since Week 8.  Moreover, after dominating the backfield carries over the first 12 weeks, Ivory has begun to cede more carries to Chris Johnson the past month:

Weeks 1-12	Touches	Rush Yds	Yds/Att	TDs
Weeks 13-16	Touches	Rush Yds	Yds/Att	TDs
Ivory	145	579	4.45	5
Johnson	112	400	4.35	2
Ivory	57	213	3.87	1
Johnson	56	243	4.58	0

It's a trend that makes sense, as Ivory ranks 45th out of 53 qualified running backs in Football Outsiders' DVOA, an opponent-adjusted metric of success rate.  The Miami Dolphins aren't a poor matchup, but Ivory no longer generates enough volume to offset his per-play inefficiency.

USA TODAY Sports

Kenny Stills may have a seemingly favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.  However, with Marques Colston taking primary slot duties, Stills will most likely draw top Tampa Bay corner Alterraun Verner, who has graded out as the seventh-best corner in the league this year, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Moreover, Stills himself has not been productive enough to warrant usage, even with a favorable matchup.  Since his 162-yard breakout game in Week 13, Stills has averaged 52.7 yards per game in the three weeks since, with no touchdowns.  He may warrant flex consideration in deeper leagues, but that's the entirety of Stills' Week 17 upside.

Similarly, Miami Dolphins rookie Jarvis Landry has cooled off.  Though he holds a bright future as a possession receiver, Landry has been hamstrung a bit by Miami's lack of verticality in the passing game.  As such, despite a high catch rate, he doesn't generate enough downfield yardage to make a significant dent:

Landry had value when he was finding the end zone, as he did five times between Week 6 and Week 12.  But having gone scoreless since then, the LSU product probably isn't playable, even against a soft New York Jets secondary.

Another touchdown-reliant player is Larry Donnell, who has averaged a meager 39.8 receiving yards per game this season.  That's more production than many projected for Donnell, who was anonymous in the preseason, but he has not notched more than eight fantasy points in a week in which he has not scored a touchdown.  Against an Eagles defense that has allowed just a single touchdown to opposing tight ends all year, Donnell is unplayable in almost every format.

*All points against and ownership percentages based on ESPN standard scoring.