Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 17: Debating Difficult Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions

Figuring out how to set a Week 17 fantasy football lineup is akin to shopping for your third cousin's Christmas present.  While you may have a vague idea of how things will play out, you're ultimately scrambling around, relying on vague information and hoping for the best.

That experience may or may not have turned out well for you earlier this week, but it's not too late to salvage your fantasy lineup.  As game day gets closer, examining teams' practice habits and inside buzz from team beat reporters may shed further light on the statuses of typically bankable stars like Rob Gronkowski and DeMarco Murray.

Deciphering playing time adds another layer of complexity to the already difficult task of analyzing the matchups themselves.  Looking at some of the most difficult cases this week, playing time or opponent related, let's make the start 'em or sit 'em decision that could determine your fantasy championship.

Quarterback

Start 'Em: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans)

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

The Colts are already locked into the No. 4 seed, and just as in the past two years, they have nothing left to play for in their regular-season finale.  However, in both those previous games, Luck started and played every meaningful snap, only departing last year's game when the outcome had already been decided.

If you survived Luck's stunning goose egg against the Dallas Cowboys last week, the precocious third-year quarterback should absolutely be in your lineup this week.  Even though the Titans have allowed more than one passing touchdown just once since Week 5, Luck threw for a season-high 393 yards and four touchdowns the first time these two teams met.

Since then, the Titans have gotten thinner in the secondary, losing starters Bernard Pollard and Blidi-Wreh Wilson.  With top target T.Y. Hilton likely to return to the lineup this week, Luck should be able to exploit a green Titans secondary with the deep ball, something that has been a noted strength of his this year:

Much of Tennessee's statistical success defending the pass has come against wretched attacks like the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets.  Though the Titans' pass defense is far from the primary reason for their 2-13 record, Luck and his receivers still hold a decisive edge that should result in fantasy goodness.

Sit 'Em: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (at Minnesota Vikings)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Just because Cutler is back does not mean he should return to your lineup.  Despite massively disappointing in real life with a 3.4 percent interception rate that ranks as one of the five worst marks in the league, per Pro-Football-Reference, Cutler has mastered the art of the junk-time stat padding.

According to PFR, Cutler leads the league with 1,171 passing yards while trailing by double digits in the second half of games.  Only Matt Ryan has thrown more touchdowns in those situations, and just six of Cutler's 18 interceptions have come in those situations.  While the difference between "junk time" Cutler and normal Cutler is a bit overstated, a significant amount of his production has come when the game has been out of reach:

Score Difference	TD-INT	Cmp %	Yds/Att	QB Rating
Junk Time	9-6	68.4	7.4	93.1
Non-Junk Time	16-10	65.7	6.9	89.1

Moreover, Cutler must face a rapidly improving Minnesota Vikings defense at TCF Bank Stadium this Sunday.  Though the Vikes collapsed at Miami last week, conceding a season-high 396 passing yards and four touchdowns, that was just the second instance in which Minnesota had allowed 20 or more fantasy points to an opposing quarterback.

Cutler was woeful in his lone start without security blanket Brandon Marshall, with three picks and just 6.3 yards per attempt against the New Orleans Saints.  Facing a much better defense without better reinforcements, Cutler is not startable in most formats this week.

Running Back

Start 'Em: Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago Bears)

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Most of the attention surrounding the Minnesota Vikings backfield this season has revolved around a player who has not been available.  However, even without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings' running game ranks as the third best in the league based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics.

Some of that was due to precocious rookie Jerick McKinnon, who is now on injured reserve, but Matt Asiata has since picked up the workload to keep the Vikings' running game humming along.  Buoyed by three touchdowns, Asiata has posted 34 fantasy points over the last two weeks, despite the league's best run defense in Detroit and an above-average one in Miami.  In fact, Asiata has quietly become one of the league's most prolific scorers:

Ten total touchdowns will keep any player relevant, especially one who receives 20-25 touches every game.  Since Week 13, when McKinnon has been absent, Asiata has received 78 touches, the 11th most in the league and ahead of stalwarts like Eddie Lacy and Matt Forte.

No other Minnesota back has accrued more than 13, illustrating how Asiata is a true workhorse running back, one of fantasy's most valuable commodities.  Facing a Chicago defense that has conceded seven rushing touchdowns over the past month, Asiata is a no-brainer to plug into your lineup.

Sit 'Em: Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (at Denver Broncos)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Like Asiata, Murray has taken control of his team's backfield, accruing 65 touches since earning the starting job in Week 14, the seventh most in the league over that span.  Though he has not reached the end zone since his memorable four-carry, 112-yard and two-touchdown performance against the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 12, that steady dose of touches would typically make Murray a desirable commodity.

Even against a Denver Broncos defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, some might be tempted to roll with Murray as a reasonable flex option.  Headed into last week, Murray was among the league's most explosive backs since breaking into Oakland's lineup:

That number went down a bit after he averaged 3.7 yards per attempt last Sunday, but even using the same time parameters, his 5.7 yards-per-attempt average still led all running backs.  However, while the larger picture is promising, it's ominous that he fared poorly against a Buffalo Bills front that is constructed quite similarly to the Denver Broncos—both teams employ a traditional 4-3 scheme and three Pro Bowl-caliber talents along the line.

Moreover, the Broncos have allowed just 3.87 yards per carry at home, the ninth-best mark in the league.  Denver limited the Raiders to an eye-opening 2.0 yards per rush attempt, and while Murray received just three touches that day, it's unlikely he'll make much more headway at Mile High.

Wide Receiver

Start 'Em: Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (vs. New York Jets)

=072024008516=/Associated Press

Wallace has earned much flak from NFL fans for his contract.  And while it's impossible to justify Wallace holding the league's highest cap hit among wide receivers this season, he's quietly brought immense fantasy value due to his rediscovered nose for the end zone:

Once reveled for his deep-ball speed, Wallace's average of 12.9 yards per catch is the second lowest of his career and well below his 15.6-yard career average.  However, he has compensated for that by upping his catch percentage from a putrid 51.8 percent in his first Dolphins season to 58.8 percent this season.  Moreover, after catching just four of 11 red-zone targets for two touchdowns in 2013, Wallace has caught 13 of 20 such targets for nine touchdowns this season.

His evolution has been the byproduct of Bill Lazor's "Eagles South" system, which gives simplified routes and reads for the offense to run.  Wallace gets to put the cap on an improved second season in South Beach against the New York Jets' porous secondary.  The Jets held Miami's offense under wraps in the first meeting, but given time, it's hard to imagine the likes of Marcus Williams and Darrin Walls continuing to hold up in coverage.

Thus, Wallace represents a clear No. 2 WR play this week.  While his fantasy value may exceed his actual value to the Dolphins, that shouldn't cross your mind when you put him in the lineup this Sunday.

Sit 'Em: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (at Green Bay Packers)

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Conversely, Golden Tate's real-life value to Detroit's offense exceeds his value in the touchdown-oriented world of fantasy.  Though Tate maintains value in PPR leagues, standard league scoring has seen his value nosedive.

Tate still ranks as the 13th-highest scorer at the position because of his incendiary stretch in Weeks 4-8, during which time he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game.  However, since Calvin Johnson's return in Week 10, Tate has essentially been a glorified version of Mohamed Sanu, at least statistically:

Stretch	Targets/Gm	Rec/Gm	TD	Yds/Gm	Fantasy Pts/Gm
Weeks 4-8 (no Megatron)	11.8	7.8	3	119.8	15.2
Weeks 10-16 (w/Megatron)	8.3	5.9	1	69.4	7.4

This week, Tate will go up against Green Bay slot corner Casey Hayward, one of the best in the league at that position.  Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game to No. 3 WRs and below, per Football Outsiders, and Hayward is a primary reason for the Packers' ability to limit passing options in the interior of the field.

With Matthew Stafford's struggles on the road compounding his own quarterback situation, Tate isn't playable except as a flex option in 12-team leagues or deeper.  It might be tough to stomach benching a player with his talent, but unless you're desperate at receiver, there's not much choice.

Tight End

Start 'Em: Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Remember how I recommended Luck as a solid play this weekend?  His Stanford roommate Fleener figures to benefit as well, even more so because fellow tight end Dwayne Allen is out of the picture:

That's a massive boon for Fleener's value.  When Allen missed Weeks 12 and 13 this season with a sprained ankle, Fleener posted 155 yards and two touchdowns in those two games, though much of that production came in the latter game against Washington.  Nevertheless, considering that Fleener has received a minimum of seven targets in five of his past seven games, he's one of the few tight ends who will receive a steady dose of looks.

The Titans aren't a great matchup against tight ends, ranking 15th in terms of most points allowed to the position.  However, Tennessee did have issues in the first meeting, conceding touchdowns to both Allen and Fleener, as its safeties struggled to defend Indy's vertical concepts in the red zone.

With Allen out of the picture, Fleener warrants borderline top-five consideration at the position, especially with Rob Gronkowski's status uncertain in Foxborough.  With virtually no certainties at the position this week, Fleener's likely guaranteed supply of targets makes him more appealing than most other tight ends.

Sit 'Em: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. San Diego Chargers)

Tom Puskar/Associated Press

The second-year tight end may have tremendous upside, but in this instance, his fantasy value is not commensurate with his real-life skills.  Kansas City's extremely limited passing offense likely took a greater hit when Alex Smith was startlingly ruled out with a ruptured spleen on Friday night, thereby forcing Chase Daniels into action.

This isn't necessarily doom for the Chiefs passing game, as Daniel actually started the Week 17 finale last season as well, also against the San Diego Chargers.  While Daniel did deliver a surprisingly efficient 200-yard passing performance in his first career start, he also averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt, suggesting that the new quarterback did not demonstrably open up the Chiefs offense.

That's not Daniel's fault necessarily, but it does indicate how Kelce's upside is limited.  Though he remains one of the most reliable sources of targets on the Chiefs offense, he has also exceeded 67 receiving yards just once since Week 4.  Given the uncertainty surrounding Kansas City's passing game on Sunday, Kelce is probably too risky to start except in very deep formats.

*All points against stats based on ESPN standard scoring.