NFL Predictions Week 17: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's all come down to this.

Only a single Sunday remains in the 2014 regular season. For many teams across the NFL, that means simply playing out the string. For some, a loss does more to help them in the future than a win. Draft position and all.

For others, however, the stakes couldn't be higher. Division titles will be up for grabs in Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.

Yes, Atlanta. Someone has to win the NFC South.

So as we gear up for the final day of regular-season action in 2014, here's a look at how the National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report expect Week 17 to play out.

Merry Christmas everybody!

Upset of the Week

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Winner: Buffalo Bills (+10) over New England Patriots (4 votes)

This isn't an easy week to pick upsets.

Between teams who would be better off losing and those who are already locked into playoff spots, there are quite a few teams that might be resting star players in Week 17, and it's that much harder to forecast an upset when you don't know who will be playing.

Still, that didn't stop our voters from trying.

NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon went with the Carolina Panthers, who visit Atlanta Sunday with the NFC South on the line:

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Carolina has rather quietly won three in a row and the Panthers are probably the more talented team anyway. With Cam Newton having one more week to recover from that back injury, the Panthers should edge an inconsistent Falcons team.

"

However, the leading vote-getter this week was the beleaguered Buffalo Bills, who AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown thinks will close the season on a high note:

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The Patriots have already locked in the No. 1 seed. The Bills have every reason to try harder to win this game, and I think the Pats will be resting key starters for most of the game.

DT Marcell Dareus is a big loss for the Bills if he can't go after injuring his knee in Week 16, but Buffalo still has a rough defensive line, and I think they can get pressure on Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo. Given the motivations, I think you'll see the Bills win a tight one.

"

See? That totally makes up for missing the playoffs—again.

Others receiving votes: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over San Diego Chargers (3 votes), Detroit Lions (+9) over Green Bay Packers (3 votes), New York Giants (-3) over Philadelphia Eagles (2 votes), Carolina Panthers (+4) over Atlanta Falcons (1 vote), Tennessee Titans (+7) over Indianapolis Colts (1 vote) and Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) over Houston Texans (1 vote).

Blowout of the Week

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Winner: Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns (7 votes)

It may be a rough week for upsets, but not so for blowouts. There are a few matchups in Week 17 that appear to be beatdowns in the making.

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter wrote that a Dallas Cowboys team that still has a chance of securing a first-round bye will roll in the nation's capital:

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This one’s easy. The Dallas Cowboys are trying to establish NFC dominance, and Washington is just trying to get to the offseason. Nobody in burgundy can cover Dez Bryant, and Tony Romo’s going to put an exclamation point on his MVP candidacy.

"

This week's leading vote-getter also involves a team in the playoff hunt. After coming out flat in last week's loss at Houston, the Baltimore Ravens face a do-or-die game against the Cleveland Browns this week.

The Tyler Thigpen-led Cleveland Browns.

Browns head coach Mike Pettine conceded to Jack Shea of Fox 8 News that Thigpen, who re-signed with the Browns this week after spending time with the team earlier in the preseason, faces a tall order starting an NFL game on such short notice.

"It was a very difficult situation," Pettine said. "For us to get a quarterback in here that’s familiar with the system on such short notice.”

Ya think, Mike?

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys over Washington Redskins (5 votes) and Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (3 votes).

Biggest Mismatch

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Winner: Dallas Cowboys passing offense vs. Washington secondary (8 votes)

There were a handful of candidates for the biggest mismatch of Week 17, but two in particular caught the eye of the vast majority of our writers.

Five scribes, including NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski, turned their eyes to Jacksonville, where the Jaguars have the unenviable task of slowing down Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt:

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Only one or two offensive tackles in the NFL could go up against Watt and it would not be considered a mismatch. Unfortunately, the Jaguars don't own one of those elite protectors.

Watt amassed a season-high three sacks against the Jaguars three weeks ago. With a playoff spot and the chance to be the NFL's sack leader this season, Watt's motor will be running non-stop. It always is, though.

"

Watt came in second, however, to an offensive mismatch in the nation's capital.

The Washington Redskins have struggled in defending the pass this year, with a ranking of 22nd in the NFL. Rich Tandler of CSN Washington bemoaned that secondary's struggles earlier this month:

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The Redskins’ problems defending against the pass are nothing new, and the game against Indianapolis pushed them to the rock bottom of the league by one statistical measure.

The NFL’s all-purpose passing stat is passer rating, which combines attempts, completions, interceptions, and touchdown passes into a number that compares it to historical standards. A zero is the lowest possible rating while 153.3 is the highest. The NFL average going into Week 14 is 88.4.

The Redskins’ opponents have lit up their secondary to the tune of a 107.8 rating. That happens to be exactly what Peyton Manning’s passer rating is this season so each week the average QB facing the Redskins performs like the one of the best passers in NFL history.

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None of that bodes well heading into a matchup with a Cowboys team jockeying for a first-round bye.

Others receiving votes: J.J. Watt vs. Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line (5 votes), Baltimore Ravens defense vs. Tyler Thigpen (1 vote) and New York Giants passing offense vs. Philadelphia Eagles secondary (1 vote).

Sleeper QB Performance

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Winner: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (9 votes)

Throughout the 2014 season, these "sleeper" categories have generated wide and varied responses more often than not. However, in Week 17 only three signal-callers received votes, and one was the runaway winner.

There was a lot of talk about the arm strength of Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater before his rookie season. However, as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com reported after Minnesota's Week 16 loss in Miami, those questions have mostly been answered:

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There was plenty of consternation earlier this season about Bridgewater's inaccuracy on deep balls and whether he had the arm to consistently throw downfield in the NFL.

The rookie didn't have to try any 40-yard shots Sunday, but in recent weeks, he has hit the 15- to 20-yard throws often enough that the question about Bridgewater's downfield accuracy is essentially dead.

Bridgewater completed six of seven throws that traveled 10 yards or more Sunday, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He accumulated 130 yards and a touchdown on those throws and was perfect in both his passer rating (158.3) and QBR (100.0) when he threw at least 10 yards. Bridgewater's longest ball of the day was 25 yards, but he continued to connect on the intermediate throws that are so vital in offensive coordinator Norv Turner's scheme.

The past four weeks, Bridgewater has hit 65.4 percent of his throws of at least 10 yards, which is the highest completion percentage in the league over that stretch. His completion percentage when throwing at least 15 yards also leads the league, and it's even more impressive—76.5 percent. And 20-plus yards? Bridgewater's completion percentage is tops in the league there too—he's gone 6-for-9 on such throws for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

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NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski believes that Bridgewater will find success this week against a shaky Chicago defense:

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Don't look now, but Bridgewater is starting to figure out the NFL game. The rookie signal-caller completed over 70 percent of his passes in each of the past four contests. He is also averaging 8.87 yards per attempt over that same period. Against the Bears' 31st-ranked defense, Bridgewater should be expected to continue his impressive play.

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Over half our writers agree with him.

Others receiving votes: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (3 votes) and Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 votes).

Sleeper RB Performance

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Winner: Jonas Gray, New England Patriots (6 votes)

It's been an up-and-down year for New England Patriots running back Jonas Gray.

After bursting onto the the scene with 201 yards on the ground and four touchdowns in a November win over the Indianapolis Colts, Gray landed himself squarely in head coach Bill Belichick's doghouse after missing a team meeting.

That 201 yards represents nearly half of Gray's season total, but AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz feels the 24-year-old will find room to run Sunday despite a matchup with a Bills defense that's been stout against the run in 2014:

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The Patriots do not have anything left to play for, with the No. 1 seed already locked up, so the backups could get some playing time as New England hosts the Bills.

Jonas Gray ran roughshod through the Colts defense in his breakout game, and the Bills defense has been exposed lately in yielding more than 130 rushing yards in each of the past three games. The circumstances appear ripe for another big day from the man who once opened for Screech at a comedy club.

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Enough of our experts agree for Gray to get the nod as week 17's surprise star in the backfield.

Others receiving votes: Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (3 votes), Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers (2 votes), Joique Bell, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Fitzgerald Toussaint, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote) and Orleans Darkwa, New York Giants (1 vote).

More Rushing Yards: Jeremy Hill or Le'Veon Bell

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Winner: Le'Veon Bell (9 votes)

Sunday night's AFC North title game in Pittsburgh features two of the NFL's brightest young stars at running back.

Le'Veon Bell of the Steelers leads the AFC with 1,341 rushing yards this year. Rookie Jeremy Hill of the Cincinnati Bengals just gashed the Denver Broncos' supposedly strong run defense for 147 yards on 22 carries, pushing the former LSU standout over 1,000 yards for the season.

This is a game that may well come down to which team is better able to run the ball. If that's the case, AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst thinks the Steelers will come out on top:

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Jeremy Hill has more games with 140-plus rushing yards than Le'Veon Bell, which includes his last two. He has more yards per carry, though Bell has the lead in rushing yards by over 300. Though Hill seems to have the hotter hand right now, Bell will surpass him in rushing yards on Sunday.

Why? Simply because Bell gets more touches. He has eight games with 20 or more carries, while Hill has four such games. The Steelers have no other rusher to turn to, while the Bengals can switch Hill out with Giovani Bernard or even Rex Burkhead when the down-and-distance dictates it.

Both the Steelers and Bengals are going to want to run the ball heavily on Sunday, but with Bell being the Steelers' only option, it seems likely he ends the day with the higher rushing total.

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It's far from a runaway, but the majority of our panelists agree, picking the second-year "veteran" to out-gain Hill on the ground.

More Receiving Yards: A.J. Green or Antonio Brown

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Winner: Antonio Brown (12 votes)

If these predictions are any indication, then the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to win the AFC North Sunday night.

Of course, that's exactly what our experts forecast will happen in the Week 17 game picks.

Granted, this seemed like a much tougher call when I originally came up with this category, but that was before an Andy Dalton overthrow got Green clobbered early in Monday night's win over the Broncos.

Green sustained a bruised biceps on the play, but while speaking with ESPN's Coley Harvey, he made it clear that he has every intention of playing Sunday.

"If I can go, I'm going. No matter what it is," Green said. "We're playing for something big. We're playing for home-field advantage."

Not only does NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier think Green will play, but he believes Green will out-gain his star counterpart for the Steelers:

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Green will have three catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Brown will have 12 catches for 121 yards and one touchdown. He will get knocked out of bounds inside the five-yard line twice, with Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell scoring.

Both receivers will be targeted by their quarterback exactly 15 times. But you asked about yardage, not receptions or impact, so I answered. Happy New Year!

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However, given that no wide receivers in the NFL have more yardage than Antonio Brown this season, most of the rest of the panel isn't buying it.

Sleeper WR Performance

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Winner: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (4 votes)

Now this is more like what we're used to in these votes in 2014.

Eight different wide receivers received at least "sleeper" vote in Week 17. They ran the gamut from rookies to veterans—burners to slot guys.

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown went with Andrew Hawkins of the Cleveland Browns, despite the team's unsettled situation at quarterback:

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Baltimore's No. 2 cornerback slot is about four more injuries from Gary Davenport suiting up for them. While the Browns haven't passed the ball worth a damn for a solid month, perhaps Brian Hoyer will play a little better with his job on the line, as we always hear about his clutchness and winning mentality.

Through Week 15, the Ravens were allowing an average of eight catches and 67.8 yards to No. 2 receivers, per Football Outsiders. In some of those games, the Ravens even had healthy cornerbacks!

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However, the leading vote-getter was a player who may not truly classify as a "sleeper."

Given that Golden Tate of the Detroit Lions was denied a trip to the Pro Bowl despite 96 catches and over 1,200 receiving yards, the least we can do is give the guy a moment in the sun.

Pro Bowl voting makes my eyes hurt—a lot.

Others receiving votes: Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals (3 votes), Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes), Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote), Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Philly Brown, Carolina Panthers (1 vote) and Paul Richardson, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote).

Sleeper TE Performance

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Winner: Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills (6 votes)

Rudolph the Vikings tight end, had a shiny purple hat.

And if you saw his stat line, you would wonder where he's been at.

OK, I'll stop now.

Besides, it wasn't Kyle Rudolph who won the vote for Week 17's breakout performer at the tight end position. It also wasn't Vernon Davis, the pick of NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson:

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Yes, it's come to this for Vernon Davis. He can officially qualify for "sleeper" status, which happens when you post two straight zeros in the box score. But Davis showed some life in Week 15 with a 63-yard touchdown reception that was called back.

He needs to halt his career's whirling spiral, and a Cardinals defense allowing 65.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends will provide a nice, soft landing spot.

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No, that honor went to Buffalo's Scott Chandler, who burned the New England Patriots for 105 yards the first time those teams met this season.

When asked by Adam Kurkijan of The Boston Herald what the team's strategy was for defending Chandler in Round 2, safety Devin McCourty quipped: “[Try] to make sure he doesn’t have a good game again.”

Others receiving votes: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (3 votes), Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (2 votes), Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Josh Hill, New Orleans Saints (1 vote) and Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote).

Best Defensive Performance

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Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (13 votes)

OK, so maybe we should have changed the name of this category at some point. After all, we've reached a point where writers such as NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier pick any player for this prediction who isn't named J.J. Watt just for variety's sake:

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I just pick non-J.J. Watt defenders to be contrary, and to prove I am not just making obvious choices so I can rush off to the mall.

Elvis Dumervil has 17 sacks this season, and he may be facing Connor Shaw on Sunday with the Ravens season on the line. Watt has a lot to play for as well, but I will take a motivated Dumervil against a third-string rookie over a motivated Watt against a first-string rookie, if only to play devil's advocate and provide some commentary in a category my fellow writers skipped. Merry Christmas!

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However, had we altered the category, that would have denied us the right to pay homage to one of the truly dominant defensive performances of the past decade.

Watt's statistics are gaudy in and of themselves. Take into account the constant double- and triple-teams, and the fact that he has almost single-handedly kept the Texans in the hunt for a playoff spot, and you have, in this writer's opinion, the 2014 NFL MVP.

Others Receiving Votes: Elvis Dumervil, OLB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote) and Harrison Smith, FS, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote).

Who Will Finish the Season as the 2014 Sack King?

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Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (12 votes)

The final regular-season prediction of 2014 is a category that appealed to AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown:

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Now this is a fun question.

So, the situation. We've got three real competitors. Justin Houston enters Week 16 with 18 sacks, J.J. Watt with 17.5, and Elvis Dumervil with 17. Everyone else has 14.5 or fewer, and so we can basically rule them out barring a once-in-a-Gabbert game.

The Jaguars have allowed the most sacks in the NFL and allowed three to Watt the last time they've played. San Diego's 5.3 percent adjusted sack rate ranks 12th, and Cleveland's 5.0 percent ranks 11th.

So, as much as I'm sure the lack of surprise is getting old, I think this is another defensive question we answer with "J.J. Watt."

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Sure, there's a chance that Dumervil or Houston could explode in Week 17, but facing a Jacksonville team that's allowed a staggering 66 sacks this year (nine more than the Browns and Chargers combined) it's hard not to like Watt's chances of reigning supreme when it comes to making NFL quarterbacks cry in 2014.

Others receiving votes: Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (3 votes).