Week 17 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Fantasy Football Stars to Play and Bench

Week 17 is a fantasy football owners worst nightmare, which makes it curious that many standard leagues still keep the entire season in play as default.  If you're one of the unfortunate souls stuck trying to decipher press conferences, having the league championship on the line seems particularly unfair.

Regardless, this also provides an opportunity to grab the upper hand on your opponent if you can gather the correct information.  Should Tom Brady and Andrew Luck owners panic?  Would the Dallas Cowboys really run the surgically repaired DeMarco Murray into the ground despite likely being locked into the No. 3 seed?

These are just a sampling of the numerous questions surrounding some of the typically surest names in fantasy this week.  Taking a look at those situations, as well as players with borderline matchups, let's make the start-sit projections for critical lineup lynchpins.  

Start 'Em

Player	Pos.	Team	Opponent
Tony Romo	QB	Dallas Cowboys	Washington
Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns
Joique Bell	RB	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers
Marques Colston	WR	New Orleans Saints	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
T.Y. Hilton	WR	Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans
Julius Thomas	TE	Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders

The Dallas Cowboys are essentially locked into the No. 3 seed in the NFC, barring a tie between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.  However, even with virtually nothing to play for, the sentiment at Valley Ranch has been that the Cowboys will treat their game at Washington like a normal contest, something Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett have repeatedly reiterated:

Thus, with all his weapons available, Tony Romo is a must-start against a D.C. defense that has allowed the most points this season to opposing quarterbacks.  Romo got injured in the first meeting, a Cowboys overtime loss, but nevertheless managed to throw for 209 yards and a touchdown over 28 pass attempts.

Washington's secondary has gotten even further banged up since that meeting, to the point where green corners David Amerson and Bashaud Breeland are the top two defensive backs.  Breeland held his own against Dez Bryant in the first meeting, but in the rematch, Romo remains a clear No. 1 option at QB.

At running back, Justin Forsett and Joique Bell are tricky propositions because of injury concerns.  Forsett has been dealing with lingering knee issues amid declining production, while Bell suffered an Achilles injury against Chicago last week.  

However, with both teams facing critical contests and soft run defenses, Forsett and Bell are must-starts.  Baltimore's bell cow will face a Cleveland Browns defense that has given up 387 yards and three touchdowns the past two games, a byproduct of numerous front-seven injuries.  Meanwhile, Bell has taken control of what was previously a backfield committee in the Motor City and has scored double-digit fantasy points in four consecutive games.

Your receiving options this week should be solid as well.  T.Y. Hilton burned many owners last week as a game-time scratch for a 4:30 p.m. start time, but the Colts top receiver should be ready to go this week:

That spells fantasy goodness against the Tennessee Titans, against whom Hilton recorded 105 yards on six catches back in Week 4.  Tennessee's secondary has gotten thinner since then, having lost starting defensive backs Bernard Pollard and Blidi Wreh-Wilson, so just as DeAndre Hopkins did three weeks ago, expect Hilton to take advantage of the Titans' callow safeties and hit some big plays.

Marques Colston has been a disappointment for the New Orleans Saints and fantasy owners this season, but he still ranks second on the team with 92 targets.  That should lead to success against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have conceded the third-most points to opposing receivers this season.  Most importantly, Colston will draw slot corner Leonard Johnson rather than top Tampa corner Alterraun Verner, who will most likely take Kenny Stills at the split end.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Tight end is the thinnest position in fantasy, which made Julius Thomas immensely valuable during his early-season touchdown barrage.  However, since spraining his ankle Week 11, Thomas has accrued a grand total of five catches for 66 yards, a meager total of six fantasy points.  That massive slump has made him virtually unplayable down the stretch, even though his ownership percentage remains near 100 percent simply due to upside.

And that upside is precisely the reason why it makes sense to gamble on Thomas against an Oakland Raiders defense who he burned for two touchdowns in Week 8.  Though he's still only playing roughly half the snaps, a semi-healthy Thomas is a borderline No. 1 TE with this matchup and certainly beats most waiver-wire alternatives.

Sit 'Em

Player	Pos.	Team	Opponent
Matthew Stafford	QB	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers
Fred Jackson	RB	Buffalo Bills	New England Patriots
Tre Mason	RB	St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks
Torrey Smith	WR	Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns
Josh Gordon	WR	Cleveland Browns	Baltimore Ravens
Rob Gronkowski	TE	New England Patriots	Buffalo Bills

Matthew Stafford has hurt his fantasy owners during the playoffs, having accrued a grand total of 15 fantasy points over the last two weeks.  Unlike his midseason struggles, which could mostly be explained away due to Calvin Johnson's absence, Stafford's current issues are more inexplicable and probably make him No. 2 QB material this week.

Moreover, with the game being at Lambeau Field, Stafford's prominent road woes come back into play.  The difference between Stafford at Ford Field and away from it essentially equates to the statistical difference between Andrew Luck and Geno Smith:

Location	TD-INT	Cmp %	Yds/Att	Adj Yds/Att
Home	13-6	67.25	7.94	7.91
Road	6-6	54.87	6.44	5.90

Additionally, the Packers secondary possesses the combination of perimeter skill (Sam Shields), slot strength (Casey Hayward) and deep-half range (Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Micah Hyde) to contain Detroit's versatile receiving corps.  The combination of location and opponent makes this a poor matchup for any quarterback, but especially Stafford, given his recent and career track record.

At running back Tre Mason seems like an obvious no-play against the Seattle Seahawks, whose defense is playing at a historic level.  The St. Louis Rams precocious rookie running back actually had his breakout game against Seattle, accruing 85 rushing yards and his first career touchdown.  However, that game came against a slumping Seahawks defense missing Bobby Wagner.  With Wagner healthy and Seattle straightened out, Mason is unplayable in virtually every format this week.

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Fred Jackson presents a trickier issue.  The New England Patriots are middle-of-the-pack against opposing running backs, and with home-field advantage sewn up, the Pats could reasonably rest front-seven stalwarts like Vince Wilfork, Rob Ninkovich, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower.  However, the season-long numbers are misleading, and the Pats have worked their way into the upper third of run defenses:

Moreover, New England shut Jackson to 10 carries for 26 yards back in Week 6.  The Pats have since bolstered their depth with front-seven additions Alan Branch and Akeem Ayers, as well as the healthy return of starting defensive tackle Sealver Siliga.  Even if the Pats rest their stars more than usual, Jackson looks like a touchdown-or-bust proposition.

At wide receiver, the Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns contest presents a pair of top receivers as risky propositions this week.  Torrey Smith has been grinding through a right knee injury the latter half of the season, though he has since rebounded for four touchdowns the past three weeks.  

However, the Browns have been stingy against opposing wide receivers in recent weeks, shutting A.J. Green and Kelvin Benjamin out of the end zone the past two weeks.  In addition, Smith had just two catches for 25 yards in the first meeting against Cleveland.  The Ravens' top receiver is probably worth a lineup play in most formats, but he comes with more risk than usual.

That still beats the Josh Gordon alternative.  Some may be tempted to play Gordon for his upside, considering that the Ravens' deep-ball defense has been totally inept the past few weeks.  But while the matchup is juicy, there are far too many red flags surrounding Gordon and his quarterback situation to trust last year's receiving yardage leader.

For one, Gordon has admitted rust in running the correct routes, so it was never really realistic to expect him to replicate his 2013 form.  After seeing a whopping 29 targets in his first two games back, Gordon has seen just 17 in the last three games combined, catching nine of those passes for just 108 yards.  Handicapped by his lengthy suspension and poor quarterback situation, Gordon's downside doesn't really justify playing him and hoping that Brian Hoyer or Connor Shaw can connect on a couple deep shots.

At tight end, sitting Rob Gronkowski might seem inconceivable, but the rationale is obvious: Of all the Patriots to sit, Gronk and his checkered injury history would be the most logical candidate.  Moreover, the Bills have allowed the fewest points to opposing tight ends this year.  If Gronkowski doesn't play the full game, he's an extremely shaky start in any format, embodying the dilemma fantasy football players face with the stars who have carried them to this point.

*All points against stats based on ESPN standard league scoring.