Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots own a stiff upper hand in the recent rivalry with the Buffalo Bills, winning 26 of the last 28 meetings straight up and going 18-9-1 against the spread.

But neither 12-3 New England, which has already clinched the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs, or 8-7 Buffalo, which has already been eliminated from playoff contention, will have anything to play for when the teams meet Sunday afternoon—except, possibly, for pride.

Point spread: Patriots opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.4-27.6 Patriots

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills had won three of their previous four games straight up and gone 4-0 ATS, before losing at Oakland last week 26-24. Buffalo pulled to within 19-17 early in the fourth quarter but couldn't keep the Raiders from tacking on an insurance score.

So at 8-7, the Bills will miss the playoffs for the 15th season in a row. Still, with a victory this week, Buffalo can card its first winning record since 2004. On the season, the Bills only rank 24th in total offense but fourth in total defense and fifth in points allowed, at just under 19 per game.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots just clinched the top seed in the AFC with a 17-16 victory over the rival Jets last week and Denver's loss to Cincinnati Monday night. New England trailed New York going into the fourth quarter Sunday, but an interception set up a short field, and the Pats capitalized for the game-winning score.

On the season, the Patriots rank 10th in the league in total offense, 13th in total defense, first in scoring at 31 points per game and eighth in scoring defense, allowing just under 20 PPG. Also, New England has beaten Buffalo six times in a row—four of those times by at least 14 points.

Smart Pick

Neither team has anything at stake for this game. New England is already locked into its playoff situation, and Buffalo is already out. But that might also mean the Patriots will rest starters, while the Bills will be out to extract some measure of revenge against a franchise that's treated them so poorly over the years.

So based on that motivation alone, the smart betting choice is probably Buffalo, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
• New England is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.