Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 17: Smart Matchup Plays, Sleepers and More

While most fantasy football leagues concluded over the weekend, those still in play face the most fickle week of the season.  Making Week 17 the deciding championship Sunday requires a Ph.D in reading tea leaves, as coaches are often purposely ambiguous about how much their starters will play and who might get playing time in their stead.

Some situations are obvious.  Teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals are essentially locked into their playoff seedings.  With little to play for, Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton owners could be out of luck with the stars that have carried them this far.

But not all is lost, as the waiver wire and your bench could be full of previously unheralded names poised to receive a significant opportunity.  With that in mind, let's look at the best and worst matchup plays for the final Sunday of the regular season.

Smart Matchup Plays

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The "Daily Show" has been on a roll for the Panthers over the last month, with double-digit fantasy point outings in three of his last four showings.  Now facing an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Stewart is a clear No. 2 RB option this week.

There might be some trepidation from owners who believe that DeAngelo Williams' likely return could cut into Stewart's carries.  However, given that the Panthers-Falcons contest is essentially the NFC South title game, it seems unlikely that the Panthers would take time to reintegrate Williams back into the lineup, especially given Stewart's hot hand.

Indeed, volume has played a big role in Stewart's rise.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, Stewart's 83 touches over the past four weeks ranks sixth among all players in that span, alongside bona fide stars like LeSean McCoy and Arian Foster.  Moreover, Stewart has been remarkably efficient, averaging over 5.0 yards per carry in three of those four games.

Because of injuries, Stewart has burned innumerable fantasy owners over the last few seasons.  However, his surprising resurgence has made him one of the most valuable waiver wire pickups of the postseason, and if you're lucky enough to own him, don't hesitate to roll with Stewart this weekend.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Though Odell Beckham Jr. has supplanted him as the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year, Evans remains one of the most impressive players from an historically prolific rookie receiver class.  Expect the Texas A&M product to finish his season with a bang against a leaky New Orleans Saints secondary playing out the string.

Some fantasy owners might be a bit hesitant, as Evans has produced seven or fewer fantasy points in three of the past four weeks, betraying them at the worst possible time.  However, Evans is receiving a healthy 8.5 targets per game during that stretch, per PFR, right in line with his 8.3 target-per-game average this season. 

Thus, it seems likely that some positive regression to the mean is in order.  Headed into Week 16, the Saints had allowed 18 scores to opposing wide receivers, tied for fourth-most in the league.  That bodes well for the red-zone threat Evans, who, along with Beckham, has put up unprecedented touchdown numbers for a rookie receiver:

Fantasy owners burned by Evans' recent slump should not hesitate to trust him once again for the final Sunday.  Such is the joy of playing against New Orleans' woeful defense, which instantly makes Evans a clear-cut No. 2 WR option this week.

Sleepers

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota Vikings 

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

While not a clear-cut No. 1 QB by any stretch, Bridgewater has significantly stabilized after a rocky start to his pro career.  After exhibiting a variety of throws in accruing 10.0 yards per attempt against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday, Bridgewater has begun to earn acclaim for the tangible progress he's made throughout his rookie season.

During the second half of the season, the Vikes have lost two starting offensive linemen and seen formerly promising second-year wideout Cordarrelle Patterson mired in a funk that raises legitimate questions about his long-term viability.  Nevertheless, Bridgewater has progressed significantly by just about any measure when dividing his season into even six-game splits:

Stretch	Cmp %	TD-INT	Yards/Att.	Adjusted Yds/Att	QB Rating
Weeks 3-9	60.4	3-5	6.7	5.9	74.9
Weeks 10-16	68.3	10-6	7.7	7.3	95.8

This week, Bridgwater gets to face the Chicago Bears, who had given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks headed into Week 16.  The Bears' pass defense has been wretched everywhere, but their woes are particularly exacerbated away from Soldier Field, as Chicago has given up the second-most passing touchdowns in road games. 

If you're stuck with a quarterback with nothing to play for like Tom Brady or Andrew Luck, Bridgewater is a legitimate consideration as a low-end No. 1 QB in standard leagues.  In 12-team leagues or deeper he likely deserves to start, as the rookie should put a nice finishing touch on what has been a promising maiden campaign.

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

After a prolific first half, Sanu has cooled down considerably since A.J. Green's return from a turf toe injury.  Since Week 10, Sanu has not eclipsed 48 yards receiving and has reached the end zone just once, turning him from the hottest waiver-wire addition to fantasy afterthought.

However, with Green once again injured, Cincy may hold him out with a playoff berth already secure.  Green appeared to injure his arm on the Bengals' fourth offensive play of the game, though the in-game prognosis seemed to suggest a fairly promising long-term outlook:

Nevertheless, even with the division title on the line against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincy seems unlikely to rush back their All-Pro receiver, especially with a potential rematch on the horizon over Wild Card Weekend.  Thus, Sanu would once again become Andy Dalton's primary target against a Steelers defense that had allowed six touchdowns over three games before facing the league's worst receiving corps in Kansas City last Sunday.

Sanu's value is obviously a function of Dalton's production, which appears shaky in a prime-time road game, during which the conditions will be frigid and not conducive to big passing numbers.  Still, whatever value the Bengals passing game produces will likely go to Sanu, making him a reasonable emergency fill-in for jilted Green owners.

Busts

DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

This might seem controversial, given that Murray has been the clear-cut fantasy football MVP this season.  That won't change regardless of what happens in Week 17, but even with Jason Garrett's insistence that the Cowboys won't rest their starters, the battered Murray is a dicey proposition this Sunday.

Dallas has been stubborn in keeping Murray's touches historically high, which is hardly surprising given his production and pending free-agent status.  However, with a long playoff run, potentially adding 100-120 touches to his already mind-boggling workload, Murray stands out as the potential exception to Garrett's insistence on playing everyone:

Moreover, Washington is not exactly a premium matchup.  Murray is matchup-proof when he goes full speed, but D.C. has allowed the third-fewest points to opposing running backs this season.  Washington was one of the few defenses that also held Murray out of the end zone this year, though he did compile over 200 yards from scrimmage in the first meeting.

Nevertheless, the combination of those factors makes Murray a high-risk option this week.  His sheer talent alone makes him unbenchable if he plays, but pay close attention to the pregame reports.  If his workload is limited, don't hesitate to plug in someone else.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago Bears

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Chicago is a sinking ship, though Bennett has been one of the few sources of resilience during the Bears' painful implosion.  But while his effort is commendable, Bennett is likely a poor option this Sunday against a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year.

Bennett himself is in a tough slump, having scored five or fewer fantasy points in five of his past seven outings.  That's obviously a significantly byproduct of the passing game's collapse, but even with Jay Cutler back at quarterback in place of checkdown hero Jimmy Clausen, Bennett doesn't figure to receive a big boost.

Like many tight ends, his value is primarily concentrated with how often he finds the end zone.  Though six scores is a nice total, Minnesota has given up just three scores all year to tight ends, making it unlikely that Bennett can boost his value with a touchdown.

Bennett owners obviously likely lack a viable bench alternative.  However, a waiver-wire addition like Scott Chandler, Charles Clay or Jermaine Gresham would likely be a better option for this week alone.  Given that there are no more Sundays on the regular-season slate, it's likely time for Bennett owners to cut the Bears tight end loose.

*All points against stats based on ESPN standard scoring.