Week 16 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Week 16 may have provided an extra day for some NFL wagering, as two contests took place on Saturday. However, neither came equipped with expected conclusions. The seven-point favorite Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Washington Redskins on a last-second field goal, and the one-point favorite San Francisco 49ers blew a big lead against a San Diego Chargers team vying for a spot in the playoffs.

If you're not thinking about betting on an underdog in any of the 12 pivotal contests set to take place on Sunday, let's hope that trend doesn't continue.

In an effort to recoup any lost wagers from Saturday's contests—or to build upon recent winnings—some last-minute analysis before Sunday's kickoff is in order. Here's a look at the updated Vegas odds for the day's slate, corresponding picks against the spread for each and some in-depth analysis on a couple of contests that should prove to be favorable for bettors.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -2.5	Steelers	Kansas City's offense doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Pittsburgh.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -8	Lions	Jimmy Clausen won't enjoy his return to action against Detroit.
New England at NY Jets	NE -10.5	Jets	The Jets' ground game will control the clock and keep this game close.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -4	Panthers	Johnny Manziel will have a tough time keeping pace with Cam Newton.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -7.5	Falcons	Expect another down-to-the-wire shootout decided by one score.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7	Vikings	A solid Vikings defense will keep this to a low-scoring, close contest.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -11.5	Packers	See analysis below.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -4.5	Ravens	Case Keenum isn't good enough to take advantage of Baltimore's secondary.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -6	Giants	The Rams struggle on offense, so don't expect a blowout here.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -3.5	Cowboys	The Colts continue to shoot themselves in the foot with a bevy of mistakes.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -6.5	Bills	See analysis below.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -9	Seahawks	It's difficult to see Arizona's offense accomplishing much of anything here.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 20.

Sunday Odds to Bet

Green Bay Packers (-11.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At first glance, taking the Packers on the road with this large of a spread seems like a disaster waiting to happen. After all, Green Bay is 3-4 away from Lambeau Field this season, and only one of those wins was by a double-digit margin.

Still, take a look at the teams Aaron Rodgers and Co. have faced on the road this year—they haven't had it easy. That all changes in Week 16 when the Packers head to Raymond James Stadium to take on the hapless Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay's defense is more than bad enough to allow Rodgers to rebound nicely from his Week 15 debacle against the Buffalo Bills. The Buccaneers have struggled against opposing quarterbacks throughout the season and rank 24th in the league, allowing an average of 250.4 yards through the air per game. That will help the quarterback keep up this streak, via ESPN's Trey Wingo:

Making this impending contest even more appealing for Rodgers, the Buccaneers haven't been able to contain better signal-callers this year, giving up three passing touchdowns to Matt Ryan in Week 3, three to Ben Roethlisberger in Week 4, five to Joe Flacco in Week 6 and, most recently, three to Matthew Stafford in Week 14.

But, scoring points is only half the battle to beat the spread, and Green Bay has struggled on defense, right? Wrong. Aside from allowing a big day to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 14, the Packers have been solid on that side of the ball lately, holding opponents to 21 points or fewer in five of their last six games—a stretch that included the mighty New England Patriots.

Considering Tampa Bay hasn't been able to put up more than 17 points in any of its last four contests, it's pretty safe to assume the Buccaneers won't be lighting up the scoreboard on Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 34, Buccaneers 17

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Oakland Raiders

Speaking of the team that recently dominated Rodgers, the Bills have an extremely favorable matchup against the Raiders in Week 16. This one can be put simply: Oakland's 32nd-ranked scoring offense will be facing Buffalo's fourth-ranked scoring defense. How many points could the Raiders possibly put up?

Here's a quick glance back at how good the Bills defense has been of late, via ESPN's RJ Bell:

This week, that stout Buffalo secondary has the privilege of facing off against rookie Derek Carr. While Carr has been decent in his first NFL season, he's been wildly inconsistent, earning a passer rating of 140.2 against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14, but sandwiching that performance between two awful showings against the St. Louis Rams and Kansas City Chiefs.

Just how bad were those performances? Well, Carr thew two interceptions and averaged just 4.44 yards per attempt against St. Louis, and he completed just 48.2 percent of his passes while averaging a mere 3.96 yards per attempt against Kansas City. Those are some pretty terrible numbers.

So, we've established the Bills defense is likely to dominate the Raiders offense. But, will Buffalo score enough points to cover the 6.5-point spread?

The Bills don't do anything fancy on the offensive side of the ball, but they do have a healthy Fred Jackson back in the fold. He'll be an enormous weapon against an Oakland run defense that ranks 25th in the league and allows an average of 125.4 yards per game on the ground.

Meanwhile, quarterback Kyle Orton hasn't been lighting up scoreboards, but he's been efficient this season, completing 63.7 percent of his passes. He has thrown eight interceptions in 10 games, but his mistakes are lessened when the offense can lean on the running game. Expect that to be the case in Week 16.

There's no reason to think the Raiders will find the end zone more than once on Sunday, allowing Buffalo to obtain an easy win.

Prediction: Bills 24, Raiders 13