NFL Week 16 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

It is Week 16 of the NFL season, when descriptors such as "favorites" and "underdogs" can be dangerous.

It helps little that the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans did not provide any idea of what to expect. The Jaguars entered the favorite and won while covering the spread. 

That does not happen often this year, folks. 

Las Vegas continues to do everything within its power to put bettors at a disadvantage this holiday season. Less free time during the holiday stretch is a given, but the way to beat the house remains the same—hard work and research.

Luck does not hurt, either.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Philadelphia at Washington (Sat., Dec. 20)	PHI -9 (50.5)	PHI	O	RG3 or not, the Eagles have the season on the line against a weak opponent.
San Diego at San Francisco (Sat., Dec. 20)	SF -2.5 (41)	SD	O	San Francisco is in a free fall with an offense that cannot get it together.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7 (42.5)	MIA	U	Minnesota is underrated, but Miami has an elite defense that will handle a rookie quarterback well.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -6 (41.5)	BAL	U	Baltimore will get back to its ground ways to counteract a rush led by J.J. Watt.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -7 (46)	DET	O	Detroit's rush will force Jimmy Clausen into plenty of critical mistakes.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5 (40.5)	CAR	O	Johnny Manziel on the road is bad news, especially if his run defense continues to perform miserably.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -6.5 (56)	ATL	O	See analysis below.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -12 (49)	GB	O	An angry Aaron Rodgers will shred though a miserable defense.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3 (46.5)	PIT	U	Pittsburgh seems in stride at this point, and Kansas City will have no answer for Le'Veon Bell.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11 (47.5)	NE	O	Divisional battles are tougher than most things, but not when it comes to playing the Patriots. Just ask Miami.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5.5 (43.5)	NYG	U	St. Louis will have no answer for rookie star Odell Beckham.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -7 (39)	OAK	U	A trip to Oakland is no easy task, but Buffalo can win outright thanks to a great defense.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -1 (55)	IND	O	Andrew Luck will make short work of the Cowboys defense.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -8 (36.5)	SEA	O	See analysis below.
Denver at Cincinnati (Mon., Dec. 22)	DEN -3.5 (48)	DEN	U	Cincinnati cannot stop elite passers or show up in major prime-time games.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 19.

Notable Favorite: Seattle Seahawks (-8) at Arizona Cardinals

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

This is a scary line for bettors upon initial viewing.

The Arizona Cardinals rest alone atop the NFC with playoff ticket in hand. A trip to the desert to square off with an 11-win team is something many teams in the NFL would find difficult.

Of course, the wrinkle is that Bruce Arians' team cannot escape the injury bug.

Bettors will recall that the team lost Carson Palmer for the season.

No matter, the team kept winning.

Now things are more difficult to predict, though, as Drew Stanton is out with an injury, which leaves the offense in the hands of Ryan Lindley.

Lindley is the guy who was only brought back this season after Palmer went down with his issue. A lack of experience is a serious problem, although he says his ability to learn from those around him will help him to improve on a miserable six-game stretch with the team back in 2012.

"It's night and day," Lindley said, per STATS LLC (via ESPN.com). "The amount I've learned and not only grown as a person in two years, but from these guys -- B.A. (Arians), from Carson, from Drew. I'm a totally different person and totally different player from that point."

Bettors on the hunt to roll with the favorite should not fret, though. Seattle's No. 1 pass defense and No. 5 rush defense mean Lindley and Co. will do little in the scoring department Sunday night.

Also, recall that a Week 12 encounter between the rivals went in Seattle's favor. The 19-3 win was a product of Russell Wilson using his arm and legs, as he threw for 211 yards and a score and led the team in rushing with 73 yards.

That sort of dynamic from Wilson will save the day once more. Seattle will hit on an early lead that Arizona will be unable to match with a third-string player under center. From there, it is just a matter of peppering on the score.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 10

Notable Underdog: Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at New Orleans Saints

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Given the fact both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are both sub-.500 teams and still in the playoff hunt, it is easy to bet against either. Or with either. Who knows?

The knee-jerk reaction is to roll with the Saints. New Orleans is one of the league's better home-field advantages most of the time. Then again, the Saints have now lost four in a row at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Atlanta has been just as erratic, though. Matt Ryan and Co. are losers of two straight, although it is critical to keep in mind that the Falcons took down the Saints in overtime earlier this season. 

There, Ryan threw for 448 yards and three scores, while Drew Brees struggled his way to 333 yards with a touchdown and a pick. The only thing that kept the game remotely close for the Saints was 60 yards and a pair of scores from Mark Ingram on the ground, with another score from rotational piece Khiry Robinson. 

Little has really changed for either of these teams since. Rob Ryan's defense is still a mess that ranks 26th or worse against the pass and rush. Atlanta's unit ranks dead last against the pass.

Brees seems to be rounding into form at just the right time, though. Just last week he faced a Chicago Bears defense that ranks 31st against the pass. The result was an 80.6 completion percentage for 375 yards and three touchdowns.

So long as Brees can produce at that clip again, this time in a friendly environment, the Saints look like outright winners.

That said, Atlanta is a great underdog to roll with against the spread. Ryan will find plenty of success against the shaky New Orleans defense, especially considering each of the past four visitors to the Superdome have scored a minimum of 27 points.

Look for this one to be a slugfest until the end, although Brees will get the ball last and put an end to things.

Prediction: Saints 36, Falcons 30

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).