Fantasy Football Week 16: Making the Call on Toughest Lineup Decisions

It is go time, people!

In the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, Week 16 marks the end of the line. After a long and arduous season filled with twists and turns, breakout stars and injured bums, only two teams remain.

By week's end, a fantasy champion will be crowned. Smack will be talked. Maybe a few bones will change hands.

That's money, not actual bones. Sheesh. Weirdos.

Anyway, it goes without saying that every lineup decision carries added importance in Week 16. With that in mind, here's a look at some "on the fence" fantasy plays for Week 16, including my take on whether these players should be rolled out or left in the garage.

START Mark Sanchez at Washington Redskins

Michael Perez/Associated Press

An unfortunate thing has been taking place of late in the City of Brotherly Love.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez has been playing like, well, Mark Sanchez.

As Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Daily News reports, after taking over for an injured Nick Foles under center, Sanchez started out hot but has morphed into Frosty the Snowman over the past two weeks:

"

At issue: Is Sanchez healthy? Can he recognize and defeat blitzes? Are his fundamentals crumbling? After five games, did teams catch up with him in Chip Kelly's scheme?

The answers: maybe; sometimes; you would hope not; and, probably.

Circumstances that seem obvious in December often get denied until January.

In his first five games, Sanchez completed 63.4 percent of his passes, compiled an 89.3 passer rating and helped the team go 4-1.

In his last two games, losses to visiting Seattle and Dallas, he dropped to 56.3 percent with a 67.0 rating and was the worst player . . . at least, he was the worst player on offense.

"

Toss in three turnovers against two touchdowns and a 27th-place ranking among fantasy quarterbacks over that two-game span, and many fantasy owners are understandably skittish about pinning their fantasy title hopes on the player that did this.

And yet, here I sit, recommending Sanchez as a viable fantasy starter in championship week.

No, I haven't been sniffing glue.

What I have been sniffing is a delicious Saturday matchup with a Washington team that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in ESPN standard fantasy scoring in 2014.

The Eagles have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes afloat. I expect they'll do so running away, in part because of a bounce-back game from "The Sanchize."

Projected Week 16 Stats: 25-of-38, 277 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception

SIT Philip Rivers at San Francisco 49ers

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

In 2013, Philip Rivers experienced something of a career resurgence. The 33-year-old threw for nearly 4,500 yards, led the San Diego Chargers to the playoffs and finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in most scoring systems.

Rivers' numbers haven't been quite as good in 2014, but the 11th-year veteran still ranks inside the top 10 players at his position in fantasy points this year.

That's all well and good, but there are a couple of reasons why Rivers should be glued to fantasy benches this week.

For starters, he's hurt. As Eric Williams of ESPN.com reported, Rivers is nursing injuries to both his chest and back. However, Rivers made it clear after watching practice Wednesday he will be on the field against the San Francisco 49ers Saturday night, per Williams:

"

At this point in the week I think there's no doubt. …

I hate not practicing. But I think at some point you have to do what's best for me and the team. And practicing today wouldn't have been beneficial to moving toward Saturday.

"

Rivers was back on the practice field Thursday, but if being dinged up isn't enough to give you pause about starting Rivers in Week 16, consider this: The San Francisco 49ers may be something of a train wreck in 2014, but only three teams have surrendered fewer fantasy points to the quarterback position this season.

Oh, and wide receiver Keenan Allen is out with a broken collarbone.

Shall I go on?

Projected Week 16 stats: 22-of-35, 238 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception

START Fred Jackson at Oakland Raiders

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Age ain't nothing but a number.

It's the title of a (rather creepy) song by Aaliyah and the career mantra of Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson.

Despite his status as the NFL's oldest active running back, Jackson just keeps motoring along. The 33-year-old has only averaged 3.9 yards a carry in 2014, but Jackson's 56 catches have boosted his fantasy value quite a bit in leagues that award a point for receptions.

In fact, despite missing two games this year, Jackson ranks well inside the top 20 running backs in PPR formats.

With the Bills in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC (no, really…they are), Jackson told the Associated Press (via the Albany Times-Union) that only one thing is on his mind this week.

"I haven't looked at [playoff scenarios] because it's all irrelevant if we don't win," Jackson said Wednesday. "That's the number one thing we've got to focus on is taking care of our business."

What fantasy owners should be focused on is a matchup with an Oakland Raiders team that has allowed over 1,750 rushing yards and the second-most fantasy points to running backs in 2014.

Go get 'em, Grandpa.

Projected Week 16 stats: 14 carries, 52 rushing yards; 4 receptions, 29 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

SIT Matt Forte vs. Detroit Lions

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Listen, I'm fully aware that it's virtually impossible to bench Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte in Week 16. In a season that's been a dumpster fire both for the Bears and any number of highly-drafted fantasy ball-carriers, Forte has been a bright spot.

Only DeMarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys and Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers have more fantasy points than Forte through 15 weeks in PPR formats.

However, if ever there was a "buyer beware" week with Forte, this is it. For starters, the Bears face the Detroit Lions, who have allowed less than 65 yards per game on the ground this season. The Lions give up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs in ESPN standard scoring.

Back in Week 13, Forte gained all of six yards on five carries against Detroit. Six receptions for 52 yards salvaged an OK fantasy day in PPR leagues, but it still marked Forte's second-worst fantasy outing of the season.

Then there's the pickle guy. With quarterback Jay Cutler getting the hook, Jimmy Clausen will start under center for the Bears. According to the NFL Network's Michael Silver, some Bears players expect Clausen to "light it up" Sunday against Detroit.

Well, I expect that the Lions are going to load up the box and essentially dare Clausen (who last threw a touchdown pass in 2010) to do just that.

Caveat emptor, kiddies.

Projected Week 16 stats: 19 carries, 54 rushing yards; 4 receptions, 23 receiving yards

START Matt Asiata at Miami Dolphins

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Stop laughing.

Seriously, knock it off.

Yes, when it comes to talent, no one is going to confuse Matt Asiata and Matt Forte any time soon. Like, say, ever.

The third-year pro has all the explosiveness of a wet box of Cap'n Crunch. Asiata has averaged all of 3.3 yards per carry this year.

Asiata has figured out the impossible: how to be even more of a plodder than Shonn Greene.

Still, there are a few reasons to think that Asiata could provide fantasy owners in a backfield bind with a surprisingly solid stat line in Week 16.

For starters, Asiata is the last man standing in the Minnesota backfield. With Adrian Peterson suspended and Jerick McKinnon on injured reserve, offensive coordinator Norv Turner told Derek Wetmore of ESPN Twin Cities that Asiata will see the bulk of the workload Sunday in Miami:

"

Well Matt I think showed, I think he's shown throughout, but he's showed in the game that he's a guy that gives us the best all-around running, catching, [pass] protection. He had an outstanding game so I would expect Matt to get the bulk of the work and when there's opportunity to get someone else in there we'll do it.

"

Also, while the Miami defense was stout against the run earlier in the year, injuries have devastated the linebackers for the Dolphins of late.

Finally, over the last three weeks, Asiata ranks 13th among fantasy running backs in PPR leagues. That's higher than Justin Forsett of the Baltimore Ravens and LeSean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles.

So chuckle if you must, but it's those fantasy owners who are brave (or crazy—it's a thin line) enough to roll the dice on Asiata in Week 16 who may well end up having the last laugh.

Projected Week 16 stats: 22 carries, 67 rushing yards; 5 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

SIT Emmanuel Sanders at Cincinnati Bengals

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Earlier in the 2014 season, it appeared that Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders was on the cusp of a monster campaign.

Over the first 10 weeks of the 2014 season, Sanders was a top-five fantasy wideout in leagues that award a point for catches. The fifth-year veteran reeled in 62 catches and scored six touchdowns over that span.

However, since the weather turned cold, so has Sanders. Since Week 10, the 27-year-old has topped six catches in a game only once, with a single touchdown grab. Over that five-week stretch, Sanders dipped to 16th in fantasy points at his position.

Over the past three games, Sanders has free-fallen all the way to 42nd among wide receivers.

None of those numbers should give fantasy owners the warm and fuzzies, especially heading into a Monday night tilt with the Cincinnati Bengals, who have surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

Projected Week 16 stats: 5 receptions, 64 receiving yards

START DeSean Jackson vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

It hasn't been the best of seasons for the Washington Redskins.

Well, actually, that's putting it mildly. The Redskins are a 3-11 mess, due in large part to abysmal play at the quarterback position.

Early in the season, wide receiver DeSean Jackson was able to weather that storm of suck under center. Leading up to the Redskins' Week 10 bye, Jackson was a top-10 fantasy option in his new digs in D.C.

Since the bye, it's been a different story. Jackson has topped 40 receiving yards in a game only once since the bye week. Over that stretch, Jackson ranks a moribund 61st among fantasy wide receivers.

With that said, if ever there was a week for a rebound, this is it. Facing his former team back in Week 3, Jackson exploded for five grabs for 117 yards and a score.

Jackson told Mark Giannotto of The Washington Post that there won't be any extra motivation facing the Eagles this time around:

"

I just don’t really care too much for it. You know, first game was first time playing them. Now, the whole season has went on. They’re playing. I’m playing here, so I’m not going to put too much energy into that.

"

Of course, Jackson might not need that extra motivation. The Eagles are allowing 257.4 passing yards per game (28th in the NFL), and no team in the NFC has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers this season in ESPN standard scoring.

Projected Week 16 stats: 6 receptions, 104 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

SIT Alshon Jeffery vs. Detroit Lions

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Just a few days ago, Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery would have been a definite "Start," even headed into a matchup with a Detroit squad that ranks eighth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in 2014.

After all, for all the problems the Bears have had this season, Jeffery has already topped 1,000 receiving yards and caught a career-high nine touchdowns. The third-year pro enters Week 16 as a WR1 in 12-team fantasy football leagues.

Add in the season-ending injury suffered by batterymate Brandon Marshall, and the table appeared set for a strong showing in title week from Jeffery.

That is, right up until we found out pickles were for dinner.

Yes, I'm gonna keep it up with the pickle jokes. Because Jimmy Clausen is a saboteur, the wrecker of dreams, defiler of fantasy seasons.

The 27-year-old hasn't started a game in four years. His career completion percentage is under 52 percent. Clausen's thrown three touchdown passes in his career against nine interceptions.

Sure, Clausen's teammates said that he could "light it up" against Detroit, but what are they supposed to say? We're screwed?

Because that's exactly what fantasy owners who count on Jeffery this week are going to be.

Projected Week 16 stats: 5 receptions, 51 receiving yards

START Dwayne Allen at Dallas Cowboys

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Over the first half of the 2014 season, everything seemed to be falling into place for Dwayne Allen of the Indianapolis Colts.

After losing nearly the entire 2013 campaign to a hip injury, Allen started the year on a clip that made him one of the most productive tight ends in all of fantasy football.

Over a seven-game stretch from Week 3 to Week 9, Allen caught a touchdown pass in six of seven games, a hot streak that landed Allen fourth at his position in fantasy points over that span in PPR leagues.

Then Allen got hurt again and fell off the map. Since Week 10, Allen has managed only three catches for 21 yards and a score.

Um, those numbers aren't winning many fantasy championships.

However, Tim Heaney of USA Today believes that Allen deserves serious consideration from fantasy owners in Week 16:

"Allen had seven total targets in his first two games after returning from injury, but he scored in Week 15," Heaney wrote. "Even if Coby Fleener remains heavily involved, Allen should present a problem inside the red zone."

Granted that the Cowboys rank second-worst in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season in ESPN standard fantasy scoring, I'm inclined to agree with him.

Projected Week 16 stats: 4 receptions, 47 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

SIT Larry Donnell at St. Louis Rams

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Earlier this year, it appeared that New York Giants tight end Larry Donnell was going to be one of this season's big fantasy surprises.

Over the first month of the season, Donnell reeled in 25 passes for 237 yards and four scores. Donnell finished September as fantasy football's fourth-ranked tight end in PPR formats.

However, the good times didn't last. Since that big month, Donnell has ranked 22nd in fantasy points at his position. The second-year pro hasn't topped 60 receiving yards or found the end zone since Week 11.

After averaging nearly 18 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues during that smoking start, Donnell has hit that average in a single game exactly…zero times since.

Add in four lost fumbles (the most in the NFL by any non-quarterback not named DeMarco Murray) and a lousy fantasy matchup with a St. Louis Rams team giving up the fewest fantasy points in the NFC to tight ends this year, and fantasy owners are best served pretending September never happened.

Projected Week 16 stats: 3 receptions, 22 receiving yards