NFL Picks Week 16: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Good luck with NFL Week 16 picks.

No, really. Experts and casual bettors alike face an uphill climb this week. Perhaps it is just fresh in mind, but this season has been more volatile than ever when it comes to spreads and odds.

A breeze knocked over the San Francisco 49ers this season. The Oakland Raiders lost 52-0 one week and won the next. The Buffalo Bills made Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers look like Alex Smith.

Week 16 looks just as tricky. Sure, New England looks great, but AFC East bouts are tough. New Orleans leads the NFC South but plays at home this weekend and has lost four straight in front of friendly crowds.

It goes on, but the point is simple—the NFL picks department does not slow just because bettors are in a holiday frenzy.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Tennessee at Jacksonville (Thurs., Dec. 18)	JAC -3 (40)	JAC	O	A short week for these two spells trouble, but feel free to defer to the home team.
Philadelphia at Washington (Sat., Dec. 20)	PHI -9 (51)	PHI	O	RG3 or not, the Eagles have the season on the line against a weak opponent.
San Diego at San Francisco (Sat., Dec. 20)	SF -2.5 (41.5)	SD	O	San Francisco is in a free fall with an offense that cannot get it together.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7 (43)	MIA	U	Minnesota is underrated, but Miami has an elite defense that will handle a rookie quarterback well.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -6 (41.5)	BAL	U	Baltimore will get back to its ground ways to counteract a rush led by J.J. Watt.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -7 (46)	DET	O	See analysis below.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5 (39.5)	CAR	O	Johnny Manziel on the road is bad news, especially if his run defense continues to perform miserably.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -6.5 (56)	ATL	O	New Orleans cannot win at home, so look for Matt Ryan to outduel Drew Brees.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -11 (48.5)	GB	O	An angry Aaron Rodgers will shred though a miserable defense.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3 (46.5)	PIT	U	Pittsburgh seems in stride at this point, and Kansas City will have no answer for Le'Veon Bell.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11 (47.5)	NE	O	See analysis below.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5.5 (43.5)	NYG	U	St. Louis will have no answer for rookie star Odell Beckham.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -6 (39)	OAK	U	A trip to Oakland is no easy task, but Buffalo can win outright thanks to a great defense.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -1 (55)	IND	O	Andrew Luck will make short work of the Cowboys defense.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -9 (37)	SEA	O	An extended rest for Arizona means a strong performance at home.
Denver at Cincinnati (Mon., Dec. 22)	DEN -3.5 (48)	DEN	U	Cincinnati cannot stop elite passers or show up in major prime-time games.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 17.

Bleacher Report Expert Picks

Game	Matt Miller	Mike Freeman	Matt Bowen	Michael Schottey	Chris Simms
TEN vs. JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC
PHI vs. WAS	PHI	WAS	PHI	PHI	PHI
SD vs. SF	SD	SD	SD	SD	SF
MIN at MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA
BAL at HOU	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
DET at CHI	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
CLE at CAR	CLE	CAR	CLE	CAR	CLE
ATL at NO	ATL	NO	NO	ATL	ATL
GB at TB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB
KC at PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
NE at NYJ	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
NYG at STL	NYG	NYG	NYG	STL	NYG
BUF at OAK	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF
IND at DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
SEA at ARI	SEA	ARI	SEA	SEA	SEA
DEN at CIN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	CIN

Full view of Bleacher Report's expert picks available here. 

Breaking Down Notable Large Spreads 

Detroit Lions (-7) at Chicago Bears

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Nobody will argue the Chicago Bears look to be at a serious disadvantage in this contest. 

Just do not expect it to come easy for the Detroit Lions. 

Marc Trestman's team is now 5-9 and losers of three straight. Things are so bad that the staff now hinges hope on Jimmy Clausen under center, not Jay Cutler. Still, Trestman insists that not all of the blame falls on his former starting quarterback, as captured by ESPN.com:

"

 We haven't been able to do the things that we want to get done. We're working towards that. But the answer to that is obvious. I'm trying to give you the most truthful answer, and that is, we've seen moments of it, but it's not where we need to go. It's not where we need to be. But it's not all about Jay. It's about our entire offense, working together to get it done.

"

Clausen provides an unknown element to Sunday's encounter. What is not a mystery is the fact the Lions are not the offensive juggernaut they were in past years. Matthew Stafford and Co. have passed the 30-point mark just three times this year.

Then again, two of those three have come in two of the team's last three games. Last week was just a 16-14 home win over Minnesota, further showing that these NFC North duels are in no way sure things.

For those who want to roll with the Lions over the spread, rest easy. The redeeming feature is a Chicago secondary that ranks 31st against the pass. These two got together in Week 13 and Stafford threw a pair of scores in a 34-17 rout.

The Detroit defense remains a constant. A secondary that ranks 14th against the pass picked off Cutler twice in that showdown, while a top-ranked rush defense held the Bears to 13 total rushing yards.

Look for Detroit to get a few scores late to cover the spread.

Prediction: Lions 28, Bears 17

New England Patriots (-11) at New York Jets

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Two schools of thought exist for an AFC East clash between New England and the New York Jets.

One says Tom Brady and the Patriots will roll. The Jets have just three wins on the season, and the Patriots have been in postseason form since Week 5. Divisional encounters are not a problem anymore if last week's 41-13 stomping of the Miami Dolphins is any indication.

The other thought process is that the Jets will put up a serious fight. After all, the game is in New York. Even though it came against the Tennessee Titans, Rex Ryan's team does enter Sunday off a win. To cap it all off, a Week 7 meeting between these two was only a 27-25 victory for New England.

"They've got a real good defense," Brady said, per Howard Ulman of The Associated Press. "We're anticipating their best game. I know the records are what they are, but we don't look at it like that. We lost going into the Meadowlands last year."

The only difference between now and that Week 7 narrow escape is that the Patriots continue to evolve. Brady threw three touchdowns against the once-vaunted Jets defense and now has multiple touchdowns in 10 straight games.

New England rightfully struggled to just 63 rushing yards against New York's fourth-ranked rush defense, though. Since then, though, Jonas Gray (407 yards, four scores) has emerged as the team's leading rusher, and LeGarrette Blount (219 yards, three scores) is on board.

So long as New England's 10th-ranked run defense can take care of business early, Brady and a new-look running game can jump out to an early lead and force Geno Smith to the air. Once that happens, it is only a matter of time before the Patriots pull away.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).