NFL Picks Week 16: Early Spreads and Predictions for Marquee Matchups

With four teams having clinched playoff berths last week, there are still eight spots up for grabs heading into Week 16. Some of them have an easy path, with a simple win and get in, while others can win but will require help. 

Regardless of how teams get in the postseason, there's a moment of jubilation that washes across everyone in the locker room when they realize all that hard work in the offseason, preseason and regular season has given them a chance to win a championship. 

The Week 16 slate of games provides critical battles, both for positioning and in the division races. There are also teams trying to prove that they can compete with the elite groups in the NFL, so there's more at stake than just a win or loss. 

Here are early predictions for this week's slate of games as well as a more in-depth preview of the biggest matchups. 

Matchup	Spread	Prediction
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Thursday)	Jaguars (-3)	Jaguars, 20-17
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (Saturday)	Eagles (-8.5)	Eagles, 27-13
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday)	49ers (-2.5)	Chargers, 24-14
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers	N/A	Panthers, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears	Lions (-7.5)	Lions, 31-14
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans	Ravens (-5)	Ravens, 24-14
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins	Dolphins (-7.5)	Dolphins, 23-16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	Saints (-7)	Saints, 41-38
New England Patriots at New York Jets	Patriots (-11.5)	Patriots, 35-10
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers (-3)	Steelers, 27-16
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Packers (-11.5)	Packers, 41-20
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams	Rams (-5)	Giants, 24-21
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys	Cowboys (-2.5)	Colts, 27-24
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders	Bills (-7)	Bills, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Seahawks (-9.5)	Seahawks, 27-3
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals	Broncos (-3.5)	Bengals, 27-24

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

For better or worse, the NFC South will go a long way toward being decided when the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints play on Sunday. One thing that can be said with absolute certainty is that defenses will only be on the field for show. 

Here is a statistical breakdown of how bad the defensive units for Atlanta and New Orleans are, via StatMilk:

It's OK if you get a little nauseated seeing that, as it's the appropriate response to anything involving the division in 2014. 

However, the Saints can at least boast a resume that looks good in spots. They have beaten playoff-caliber teams like Green Bay and Pittsburgh, so Sean Payton's crew has what it takes to compete on the big stage. It would be nice if there were more of those performances and less of the eggs laid against Baltimore and Cincinnati. 

The Superdome hasn't provided the same advantage for the Saints, who have lost their last four home games. Drew Brees has been off his game with four interceptions during that span. 

There's nothing like waking up from the doldrums than a matchup against Atlanta's defense. Brees lit the Falcons up for 333 yards in the season opener. The Saints have a much better effort at establishing the run this season, currently ranking ninth in the NFL with 120.8 yards per game.

On the other side, there's good news for Atlanta. Head coach Mike Smith said at his Monday press conference that Julio Jones should be able to play on Sunday, via Falcons.com:

"

Julio is about where he was yesterday. Our anticipation is we’ll have him ready to go this week. It’s going to be important for him to continue to improve. He improved from last week to this week, and we need to get him back out there. I know it’ll be every day, what’s going on with Julio. I think what we need to do, is we need to realize it’s something that’s going to be later on during the week, so maybe we can look at other things and talk about other before we talk about number 11.

"

Atlanta would seem to be in the driver's seat, owning a 4-0 record against division opponents this season. Matt Ryan had his way against the Saints in the first meeting with 448 yards and three touchdowns, so expecting anything less than a shootout would be a mistake. 

The Falcons have the offensive firepower to keep this close, as these games tend to be, but the Saints are ready to take control of this mediocre division. 

Saints 41, Falcons 38

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

This is a fascinating matchup between two teams with a lot of question marks. The Colts, despite winning the AFC South, haven't looked right in their last two games. Cleveland should have beat them two weeks ago, but the offense couldn't do anything due to the ugly quarterback situation. 

Last week, the Colts only put up 17 points against the Texans. Andrew Luck has been throwing a lot of interceptions this year with 14, including four in the last three games. In terms of total turnovers, the Colts quarterback ranks second in the league this year, via ESPN on NFL:

No one is calling Luck a scrub, but there certainly seems to be something going wrong with the Colts down the stretch. 

On the other side of the field, the Cowboys may have to play this game without their most valuable offensive player. DeMarco Murray had hand surgery on Monday, though, Jerry Jones said that the star running back could play this week, via Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:

If Murray can't go, the onus falls on Tony Romo to carry the offense. While there are worse quarterbacks to put in a must-win spot, there's still the nagging feeling that at some point, the Cowboys signal-caller will make a big mistake. 

One reason that hasn't happened this season for Romo is the Cowboys have attempted the fourth-fewest passes in the league. Only Kansas City, Houston and Seattle have thrown the ball less. 

Neither defense has much to brag about. The Colts rank 15th in yards and 17th in points allowed, while the Cowboys rank 19th in points and 22nd in yards allowed. 

In a game where points are going to be the deciding factor, go with the quarterback you trust the most. Even with the turnover problems this season, Luck is still more likely to lead a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. 

Colts 27, Cowboys 24

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

One of the great "what if" scenarios this season will be figuring out how far the Arizona Cardinals could have gone with Carson Palmer at quarterback. It also applies to figuring out how the offense would have fared in the two games against Seattle. 

As great as the Seahawks defense is, let's not get carried away with this current run. It's a testament to their ability that they have only allowed 27 points in the last four games, but that also came against Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice) and Mark Sanchez. 

The Seahawks aren't going to be tested in Week 16 either, as Ryan Lindley has been tabbed as Arizona's starting quarterback. 

What exactly does that mean for Arizona's offense and Seattle's defense? Consider that Lindley has the longest streak in NFL history of consecutive passes thrown without recording a touchdown, via ESPN Stats & Info:

The only thing you can honestly hope for if you are a Cardinals fan is the run defense continues to play well, which included limiting Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries four weeks ago, and Russell Wilson has a game like he did last year in Week 16 (11 of 27 for 108 yards) when Arizona pulled off a 17-10 upset in Seattle. 

Another thing to keep an eye out for, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported, is the package of plays for rookie quarterback Logan Thomas:

Thomas is as raw as sushi but has a skill set similar to Kaepernick. While Kaepernick hasn't had much success against Seattle in his career, the 49ers were able to get him loose on the ground in the NFC Championship Game with 130 yards on 11 carries. 

Bruce Arians has found ways to win with backup quarterbacks all year, thanks in large part to a stingy defense that allows the third-fewest points per game, so don't underestimate his ability to call a good game. It just won't be nearly enough, as the Seahawks will take the upper hand in the NFC West race. 

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 3

Stats via ESPN.com

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