Walks on the Mild Side: Has a More-Controlled Ubaldo Jimenez Turned a Corner?

Many have talked about Ubaldo Jimenez as the next big pitcher, someone who is going to develop into a tremendous fantasy asset in all formats. Some would even say that he has already evolved into a top-flight option. 

I, however, have always had my reservations. Even in his solid 2008 campaign, he still posted a sub par BB/9 rate of 4.67, which is a red flag and tells me to take caution.

He managed to overcome that, posting a 3.99 ERA, and has significantly improved on that number in 2009. His line thus far is:

Eight Wins
143.2 Innings
3.76 ERA
1.25 WHIP
128 Strikeouts (8.02 K/9)
54 Walks (3.38 BB/9)
.299 BABIP

As I mentioned earlier, the number that needs mentioning is the walk rate, which is over a walk per nine innings better than last season. What’s even more amazing is that in April he had walked 17 batters over 19 innings, good for a BB/9 of 8.05. 

Since then, he has been a control freak, posting a BB/9 of 2.68. That’s control that he has never displayed, having posted a minor league career BB/9 of 4.5 over 655 innings.  It’s great that he has done a 180 and shown tremendous control, but can he maintain it?

I’m not sure that anyone can actually answer that. Even now, as he’s done a great job throwing strikes, he’s shown signs of his old self. Since the calendar turned to June, he’s had four starts of at least four walks. 

Obviously he had starts that were significantly better than that, but I can’t be comfortable that he’s fully overcome his issues with this type of performance.

Walk four once or twice in a ten-start span, and it’s easy to overlook.

It’s going to happen. You’re not going to have pinpoint control each time you toe the rubber. 

Still, to have that many poor outings is slightly disconcerting. That’s not to say that he can’t continue to pitch this well, but I am not yet willing to bet on the fact that he can maintain this type of control.

If that were the case, his WHIP would certainly regress. The BABIP is realistic, so that shouldn’t be looked at as potentially problematic.

Last season he posted a .306 and for his career is at .294. The falloff wouldn’t be too great, so it’s not something to deter you.

His strand rate is believable as well, at 71.5 percent. Obviously, if he were to walk more batters, unless he improves on the strand rate, he’s going to allow a few more runs thus leading to a slightly increased ERA. I don’t know that it is going to make a drastic difference, but one that is worth noting.

The strikeouts are right along the line of what he’s shown over his career. Last season he posted a 7.79 K/9 and over his minor league career he was at 8.8.

I’ve heard all about his stuff, and honestly outside of the walks the other numbers he’s posted are believable and encouraging that he could be a very competent and successful major league pitcher. 

Am I saying that he is destined for greatness and is going to be a fantasy ace from here on out and into 2010?

It’s certainly possible, but it all lies in the hands of his control.

Right now he’s sitting on the cusp of greatness. If he can minimize the starts where he walks four or more batters, then there is a lot of success in his future, though he just as easily could regress to the pitcher who could potentially walk the ballpark each time he takes the mound.

Watch that  carefully before dubbing him one way or the other.

For me, I’m opening to the idea of Jimenez being a very good play in all formats and a potentially No. 3 starter in 2010. A good two months to finish the season will go a long way for me.

What about you?  How good do you think Jimenez will be?

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