NFL Week 16 Predictions: Projections for the Early Lines, Spreads and Odds

Who says the NFL season is not entertaining from top to bottom this time of year?

Better yet, how much fun is it to watch the Green Bay Packers take a dive, the Cleveland Browns and Johnny Manziel flop, and the San Francisco 49ers implode?

Sure, bettors are mad. In many ways, Week 15 was a lesson in the NFL picks department. No favorite is safe. Do not buy into rookie-quarterback hype. Always take the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle.

Week 16 will dole out more lessons for those who have yet to learn. Better to get a head start on what the house has to offer than to fall again.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Tennessee at Jacksonville (Thurs., Dec. 18)	JAC -3	JAC	A short week for these two spells trouble, but feel free to defer to the home team.
Philadelphia at Washington (Sat., Dec. 20)	PHI -8.5	PHI	See analysis below.
San Diego at San Francisco (Sat., Dec. 20)	SF -2.5	SD	San Francisco is in a free fall with an offense that cannot get it together.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -6.5	MIA	Minnesota is underrated, but Miami has an elite defense that will handle a rookie quarterback well.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -3.5	BAL	Baltimore will get back to its ground ways to counteract a rush led by J.J. Watt.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -4.5	DET	Detroit's rush will force Jay Cutler into plenty of critical mistakes.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5	CAR	Johnny Manziel on the road is bad news, especially if his run defense continues to perform miserably.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -6.5	ATL	New Orleans cannot win at home, so look for Matt Ryan to outduel Drew Brees.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -10	GB	See analysis below.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3	PIT	Pittsburgh seems in stride at this point, and Kansas City will have no answer for Le'Veon Bell.
New England at NY Jets	NE -10	NE	Divisional battles are tougher than most things, but not when it comes to playing the Patriots. Just ask Miami.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5.5	NYG	St. Louis will have no answer for rookie star Odell Beckham.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -5.5	OAK	A trip to Oakland is no easy task, but Buffalo can win outright thanks to a great defense.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -1	IND	Andrew Luck will make short work of the Cowboys defense.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -7.5	ARI	An extended rest for Arizona means a strong performance at home.
Denver at Cincinnati (Mon., Dec. 22)	N/A	CIN	Cincinnati cannot stop elite passers or show up in major prime-time games.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 14.

Highlighting Early Lines to Bet

Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) at Washington

Washington is a dumpster fire assured of last place in the NFC East for the sixth time in seven seasons.

The dysfunction from top to bottom is palpable, which makes this line a sexy play.

Forget Week 3. The record shows a three-point victory for the Philadelphia Eagles against Jay Gruden's team.

But Kirk Cousins was under center for the first-year head coach and threw for 427 yards and three scores. Now, Robert Griffin III is the captain once more.

Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com puts it best:

Some will point out that RG3 may not get the nod Saturday, which is quite true.

Gruden confirms this notion himself, per the team's Twitter account:

Either way is a win for the Eagles.

Philadelphia has everything to lose at this point. A 38-27 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football puts the team in a serious hole. Mark Sanchez was uninspiring, with 252 yards and two interceptions, but things figure to go better against a defense that surrendered three touchdowns to this same offense near the start of the season.

Keep in mind, though, that a quarterback change may also be in the cards. Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer provides the details:

Regardless of who lines up under center, Philadelphia is one of the most dangerous teams in the league.

Washington will want to play spoiler, but there is little chance RG3 and Co. can keep pace in what will be a sprint to the finish line.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Washington 17

Green Bay Packers (-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

A bad team does not want to encounter an angry Aaron Rodgers.

Sorry, Tampa Bay.

It matters little what the spread is for this one. Rodgers enters Week 16 off a 17-of-42 performance with no scores and two interceptions against the Buffalo Bills. Somebody will pay, and it likely will be the Buccaneers defense, which ranks outside the top 20 in terms of pass defense.

"It was frustrating," said Rodgers, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "Some days are going to be like this. We set the standard pretty high, and we like to live up to it every week."

While Rodgers succumbed to the elements and the talents of Buffalo, Lovie Smith's team was busy losing its fourth straight, good for its second losing streak of at least four games this season.

This time, Carolina Panthers backup Derek Anderson torched the leaky secondary for 277 yards and a score, and the defense allowed 121 rushing yards to a hodgepodge of names.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Tampa Bay lost to a team without its starting quarterback, so imagine what Rodgers has in store.

Granted, this contest is in Tampa Bay, but Rodgers can lean on Eddie Lacy, who has a minimum of 70 rushing yards in each of his last four outings and three scores in that span.

On the flip side, the Green Bay pass defense held Kyle Orton to 158 yards and one interception. It is nearly impossible to remember the last time the Buccaneers had a 100-yard rusher, so how the Buccaneers come up with enough points to stay with Rodgers and the spread is difficult to figure out.

Rodgers fooled bettors (and an endless number of fantasy owners) once. It will not happen again.

Prediction: Packers 30, Buccaneers 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).