
Making the Call on Week 15's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions
Week 15 of the NFL season is upon us, which means fantasy football is nearing an end.
The semifinals are here, and hopefully your team has survived through the booms and the busts to get here. Need some advice on tough lineup decisions this weekend? You've come to the right place.
Here are some of the tougher sit-or-start options for Week 15.
Start: Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears
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Brandon Marshall was met with an unfortunate injury last week, and he was put on season-ending injured reserve soon after.
Keenan Lewis hasn't quite been a shutdown cornerback for New Orleans, but he has been tasked with stopping the opposing team's top receiver most of the year.
That man is Alshon Jeffery, who should be a focus for that New Orleans Saints defense. That would leave the rest of the offense to operate against a crumbling defense.
The biggest beneficiary to Marshall's absence should be Marquess Wilson. The second-year receiver recently came back from a broken collarbone, but he hasn't made much of an impact…yet. With more opportunity, the talented receiver could see a big uptick in production.
The Saints, meanwhile, have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to receivers this season.
Fantasy Prediction: six receptions, 95 yards, one TD
Final Verdict: With Lewis likely focused on stopping Jeffery, Wilson should have a golden opportunity to contribute against a porous pass defense this week.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
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The last time DeAndre Hopkins lined up against the Indianapolis Colts, he definitely didn't catch nine balls for 238 yards and two touchdowns like he did a couple of weeks ago against the Tennessee Titans.
On the contrary, he squared off with cornerback Vontae Davis earlier this season and came away a fantasy pauper. Hopkins caught just one pass for 12 yards against the Colts in their earlier meeting. In fact, the second-year receiver has averaged less than half the standard fantasy points per game against Indianapolis than against every other team in his career.
This is just a bad matchup.
Fantasy Prediction: four receptions, 50 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: Vontae Davis is coming to town—well, the opposite—and that is bad news for Hopkins and his owners. He might not have quite as big of a dud as last time, but he likely won't have a big game.
Start: Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
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Haven't you heard? Giovani Bernard said Jeremy Hill is the new starter at running back in Cincinnati, as tweeted by Bengals.com writer Geoff Hobson.
Cincinnati's rookie back has overtaken Bernard for the job, which could be an even bigger boon than normal given what Bengals offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said earlier this week, according to Hobson:
"I'm used to having one guy kind of dominate some carries because in order for backs to be really good, they've got to get lathered up to play. You've got to get a feel for the game. We have two capable guys and they're different guys and we'll let it play itself out, but I think we have a pretty good idea which way we're headed…Those guys are very capable. I just don't think I did a very good job this past week.
"
It sounds like Hill is going to be the workhorse this week, and opportunity is key for fantasy scoring purposes. The Browns have been a middle-of-the-road run defense this season, and Hill could easily eclipse 20 touches on the day.
Fantasy Prediction: 23 attempts, 95 yards, one TD; four receptions, 25 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: Hill should get every opportunity to be the lead back for Cincy, and he has a decent matchup to boot.
Sit: Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
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Everything that is breaking for Jeremy Hill is going the wrong way for Giovani Bernard.
Once the future of the Cincinnati Bengals backfield, Bernard suddenly finds himself looking up to his rookie counterpart for playing time. As we have been over the reasons Hill should be in your lineups, the same reasons are why you should avoid Bernard this week.
Fantasy Prediction: eight attempts, 25 yards, zero TDs; three receptions, 25 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: Hill is going to get the bulk of the work if the news coming out is true. Beware of Bernard.
Start: Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
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While everyone is focusing on the bright, blinking light that is Calvin Johnson in the Detroit offense, Golden Tate is going to sneak up and eat all of the cookies.
Tate has slowed considerably since Johnson's return from injury, but he could be a big factor in this week's matchup against the Minnesota Vikings with cornerback Xavier Rhodes and the Minnesota defense likely zeroed in on stopping Megatron.
Johnson didn't play against the Vikings the last time out, which was part of the reason why no receivers scored a touchdown in that game. Minnesota won't be so lucky this time around.
Meanwhile, despite ranking well overall this season, the Vikings have given up the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers over the past five weeks.
Fantasy Prediction: six receptions, 85 yards, one TD
Final Verdict: With the Vikings concentrated on stopping Megatron, Tate could have a sneaky good output.
Start: Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants
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It was a special night the last time Larry Donnell stepped on the field against Washington.
That's because the big tight end made a name for himself in the fantasy football realm as he caught three touchdowns. His supernova put him on the map and had fantasy owners scrambling to add him.
The rest of his season since then has largely been a series of disappointments, which has helped push him back off the radar. Guess who he plays this week. That's right—Washington.
Fantasy Prediction: five receptions, 75 yards, one TD
Final Verdict: Donnell won't have three touchdowns this week, but a nice game is in the cards.
Sit: Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts
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Indianapolis Colts tight end Coby Fleener got a reprieve from irrelevance last week despite the fact Dwayne Allen was back from injury. This week, he might not be so lucky.
Not only is Allen surely going to be a bigger part of the offense—he only ran 36 pass routes to Fleener's 47 last week—but both are going up against a Houston Texans defense that hasn't allowed many fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
In fact, Houston's defense has given up just 4.1 standard points per game to the position over the past five weeks, good for fifth-fewest in the league.
Fantasy Prediction: four receptions, 55 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: There is too much risk involved with the Colts tight ends this week.
Start: LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
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Yes, you run the risk of being bamboozled by Bill Belichick here. But this is a week where you can have some faith in a Patriots running back.
That man will likely be LeGarrette Blount, who is a few weeks removed from his huge 2014 debut with his new old team.
Blount will be going up against a Miami Dolphins defense that has given up 529 rushing yards to running backs over the past three games—the most in the league. Given Miami's success at harassing Tom Brady earlier this season, it's feasible the Patriots will try to feature the run game heavily.
Even if that isn't the case, New England is favored by more than a touchdown. A big lead could mean a few more carries for Blount in a nice matchup.
Fantasy Prediction: 17 attempts, 75 yards, one TD; one reception, 15 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: The Patriots may be getting ready to pummel the Dolphins with a Blount object, which could be huge for fantasy owners.
Start: Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns
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Like it or not, it's Johnny Manziel time in Cleveland.
If you blew your free-agent budget or nabbed him in desperation after Carolina quarterback Cam Newton got in a car accident this week, now is not the time for weakness. Start Johnny Football.
Of course, if you have an elite option at your disposal, then you might want to avoid the risk. But there are only a handful of guys who are clearly better options at this point in the season.
Why? Because he's Johnny Football.
Manziel whet fantasy appetites everywhere with his brief appearance against the Buffalo Bills a couple of weeks back, scoring a rushing touchdown and seemingly taking over for Brian Hoyer. It's his rushing ability that makes him so dangerous in the fantasy realm, and it's also why you should put him in your lineups.
Head coach Mike Pettine wasn't convinced, however, giving Hoyer one more week to stink it up before finally handing the keys to the rookie. So here we are.
Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-36, 250 yards, two TDs, two INTs; nine carries, 55 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: It's time for Manziel to make his impact on the fantasy realm. Don't be left behind when he does.
Sit: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
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Russell Wilson is currently the sixth-best fantasy quarterback in the land. So why would you bench him?
Well, in truth, you may not have a better option. But if you have a guy like, say, Johnny Manziel—ahem—you might be better served letting Wilson sit this one out.
That would be because Wilson is facing off against the San Francisco 49ers for the second time in three weeks. That would be the same defense that held Wilson to 19.3 standard points the last time around—not bad, but not great.
Granted, the 49ers have plummeted off Mount Hermon in recent weeks—not to mention Wilson is home this time around—but that doesn't mean they won't put up a huge fight against their hated rivals.
To wit, oddsmakers have set the over-under in this game at just 38, expecting a low-scoring affair.
Fantasy Prediction: 19-of-30, 200 yards, one TD; five carries, 30 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: A physical battle is in store for this NFC West showdown, which means Wilson is unlikely to put up great numbers.
All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. All gambling odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.
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