Fantasy Football Week 15: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

First of all, congratulations to everyone who reads this column, for I am assuming anyone taking time off their precious lives to peruse fantasy football information is still alive in their respective playoffs.

For the rest of you masochists, I will not be offended if you turn away. Go do whatever you want. Just stop wallowing in all that was lost in 2014. (Unless you're checking these rankings for your one-day fantasy needs. In which case, we cool.)     

The lives of those who miss out on the fantasy playoffs are near-torturous. You still hear the smack-talk, claims of what your friends will do with your money and all the normal things that happen during a regular season via group texts and emails. You just don't get to participate without an instant, deserved rebuke of your fantasy football acumen.

For the rest of us? Let's cleanse ourselves of the also-rans and take a look at what's to come in Week 15.

Thursday, Dec. 11	Time (ET)
Sunday, Dec. 14	Time (ET)
Monday, Dec. 15	Time (ET)
Arizona at St. Louis	8:25 p.m.
Oakland at Kansas City	1 p.m.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta	1 p.m.
Washington at NY Giants	1 p.m.
Miami at New England	1 p.m.
Houston at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Jacksonville at Baltimore	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Buffalo	1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Carolina	1 p.m.
Cincinnati at Cleveland	1 p.m.
NY Jets at Tennessee	4:05 p.m.
Denver at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
Minnesota at Detroit	4:25 p.m.
San Francisco at Seattle	4:25 p.m.
Dallas at Philadelphia	8:30 p.m.
New Orleans at Chicago	8:30 p.m.

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 15 or are on the schedule for Monday night.) 

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Andrew Luck, IND	25 Points
2	Peyton Manning, DEN	24 Points
3	Drew Brees, NO	23 Points
4	Aaron Rodgers, GB	23 Points
5	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	20 Points
6	Mark Sanchez, PHI	18 Points
7	Tom Brady, NE	18 Points
8	Matt Ryan, ATL	18 Points
9	Russell Wilson, SEA	18 Points
10	Tony Romo, DAL	17 Points
11	Cam Newton, CAR	16 Points
12	Jay Cutler, CHI	16 Points
13	Philip Rivers, SD	15 Points
14	Matthew Stafford, DET	15 Points
15	Eli Manning, NYG	15 Points
16	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	15 Points
17	Joe Flacco, BAL	14 Points
18	Colin Kaepernick, SF	14 Points
19	Alex Smith, KC	13 Points
20	Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU	13 Points

Top Dog: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

From a real-life football perspective, Luck was bad for most of Sunday's win over the Browns. He threw two costly interceptions, lost a fumble and completed less than 50 percent of his passes for the first time all season.

From a fantasy perspective, Luck was the seventh-best quarterback in football. His 37 yards and rushing touchdown helped atone for the turnovers, and he added 294 yards and two more scores through the air. Luck has not dropped below 14 fantasy points in a game all season, and the MVP candidate has at least 18 points in 12 of his 13 games.

With the Colts hosting a Houston defense with its fair share of flaws outside J.J. Watt, Luck should bounce back with a good game from a real-life and fantasy perspective.

Sleeper: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Perez/Associated Press

The Seahawks made Mark Sanchez look downright Sanchizeian this week. He was limited to 96 yards through the air, and while he was able to add two touchdowns, it proved little solace to owners who'd come to trust the Eagles quarterback. 

If Sanchez's disappointing outing didn't result in your playoff ouster, he'll reward that patience against Dallas on Sunday Nigh Football. The Cowboys have been able to hold tight in NFC East thanks to DeMarco Murray and a quietly stellar season from Tony Romo, but their defensive cracks are starting to show. Chicago came back from a 35-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to shortly get within 10 points, and giving Dallas three straight weeks of allowing 28-plus points.

The Eagles thrashed their division foe when they met on Thanksgiving. Dallas will be motivated to return the favor, but it's far more likely to win a close, high-scoring game than a blowout.

Beware: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

No matter the implosion levels in San Francisco, the 49ers and Seahawks rivalry isn't going anywhere (for now). These teams know each other probably better than any other two rivals in the league, and their games tend to take on a classic, grind-it-out slugfest form.

That's not great news for fantasy owners. Wilson, who was mostly brilliant in Seattle's 19-3 win on Thanksgiving, did next to nothing from a fantasy perspective. His 16 points were his lowest total of the last five weeks and his fourth-worst overall in 2014.

Many will point to Seattle hosting this game and say those stats don't matter, but that's a misnomer. Wilson's two worst fantasy days in 2014 were home games, while his four highest have all come on the road.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	20 Points
2	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	20 Points
3	Arian Foster, HOU	19 Points
4	Jamaal Charles, KC	19 Points
5	Matt Forte, CHI	18 Points
6	Justin Forsett, BAL	16 Points
7	LeSean McCoy, PHI	16 Points
8	Eddie Lacy, GB	14 Points
9	Mark Ingram, NO	14 Points
10	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	13 Points
11	C.J. Anderson, DEN	13 Points
12	Joique Bell, DET	12 Points
13	Rashad Jennings, NYG	12 Points
14	Tre Mason, STL	12 Points
15	Ryan Mathews, SD	10 Points
16	Isaiah Crowell, CLE	10 Points
17	Daniel Herron, IND	10 Points
18	Lamar Miller, MIA	9 Points
19	Alfred Morris, WAS	9 Points
20	LeGarrette Blount, NE	9 Points
21	Jeremy Hill, CIN	9 Points
22	Frank Gore, SF	8 Points
23	Steven Jackson, ATL	8 Points
24	Chris Johnson, NYJ	7 Points
25	Latavius Murray, OAK	7 Points
26	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	7 Points
27	Denard Robinson, JAX	6 Points
28	Trent Richardson, IND	6 Points
29	Terrance West, CLE	5 Points
30	Giovani Bernard, CIN	5 Points

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Until Murray stops pulverizing the league and the Cowboys stop pulverizing his body, he's a lock for this top spot. Le'Veon Bell has gone over 200 total yards each of the last three weeks, but Murray's ridiculous consistency level isn't something we're likely to see again for a long time.

The former Oklahoma star has gone over 100 total yards in 12 of 13 games. He's been a between-the-tackles bruiser, with eight of his nine touchdown runs coming inside the tackle box, per ESPN Stats & Info. And if his 24.6 carries per game weren't enough, the Cowboys have been using him more than ever in the passing game of late.

Sleeper: Chris Johnson, New York Jets

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Forgive me here, I'm just doing the Former Superstar Plays His Crummy Old Team math here. The same showing of faith led to 139 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season from Steve Smith against the Panthers. Johnson and Smith don't quite share the same temperament—OK, no one shares Steve Smith SENIOR's temperament—but Johnson still has a shot at a breakout.

The artist formerly known as CJ2K has received 33 carries over the last two weeks, one more than starter Chris Ivory. The Jets' late-season game plan appears to read "do anything but allow one of our quarterbacks to pass the ball." The Titans, meanwhile, are a dumpster-fire defense ranked last in rushing yards allowed and are kicking the can to their top-five pick.

That the NFL made this one of four late-afternoon games should be a felony. I won't watch a second of this and neither should you, but Johnson is a sneaky flex play here.

Beware: Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

After tantalizing fantasy owners in his first four starts, Robinson has gone full Jaguar over the past three weeks. He's combined for 99 rushing yards, and Jacksonville's coaching staff has continued its head-scratching flirtation with Toby Gerhart. Gerhart has received 19 total touches over this three-week span, a not-insignificant amount given how often the Jaguars are forced to throw.

A trip to Baltimore is nowhere near as daunting as it used to be, but there's no reason to risk your playoff life on Robinson returning to form. The Ravens are ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed, and opponents have scored only seven rushing touchdowns this season. 

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Antonio Brown, PIT	18 Points
2	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	17 Points
3	Jordy Nelson, GB	17 Points
4	Calvin Johnson, DET	17 Points
5	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	16 Points
6	Dez Bryant, DAL	16 Points
7	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	15 Points
8	A.J. Green, CIN	15 Points
9	Julio Jones, ATL	14 Points
10	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	14 Points
11	T.Y. Hilton, IND	13 Points
12	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	13 Points
13	Mike Evans, TB	11 Points
14	Randall Cobb, GB	11 Points
15	Josh Gordon, CLE	11 Points
16	Keenan Allen, SD	10 Points
17	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	10 Points
18	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	10 Points
19	Julian Edelman, NE	10 Points
20	Golden Tate, DET	9 Points
21	Steve Smith, BAL	9 Points
22	Sammy Watkins, BUF	8 Points
23	Roddy White, ATL	8 Points
24	Brandon LaFell, NE	8 Points
25	Vincent Jackson, TB	8 Points
25	Martavis Bryant, PIT	7 Points
26	Jordan Matthews, PHI	7 Points
27	Kenny Stills, NO	7 Points
28	Andre Johnson, HOU	7 Points
29	Eric Decker, NYJ	6 Points
30	Charles Johnson, MIN	6 Points
31	Anquan Boldin, SF	6 Points
32	Jarvis Landry, MIA	6 Points
33	Marques Colston, NO	6 Points
34	Pierre Garcon, WAS	6 Points
35	Mike Wallace, MIA	6 Points
36	Doug Baldwin, SEA	5 Points
37	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	5 Points
38	DeSean Jackson, WSH	5 Points
39	Reggie Wayne, IND	5 Points
40	Dwayne Bowe, KC	5 Points

Top Dog: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

Brown and Murray remain atop their perches for the same exact reason: They're so consistent it's impossible to take them off. Brown has not had fewer than eight receptions in a game since Oct. 12. He had seven. Not once in 2014 has he been held below five receptions, and his season low in yardage is 74.

There are zero negatives here. Brown is a superstar, perhaps the best all-around receiver in football. He's also making a trip with his teammates to Atlanta on Sunday, which has been a fantasy bonanza for opposing passing games all season.

When 100-plus yards feels like the basement of a player's production, it's safe to say he's worth keeping around.

Sleeper: Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings

Johnson is beginning to look like the deep threat everyone wanted Cordarrelle Patterson to be. He's averaging 70.75 receiving yards over the last four weeks, including a 103-yard performance in Sunday's win over the Jets. Most of that production came on a 56-yard touchdown connection, but Johnson has nonetheless become a favorite of Teddy Bridgewater.

The Vikings head to Detroit this week, so beware of putting too much stock into Johnson. The Lions have one of the NFL's best defenses and are surely champing at the bit to pick apart a rookie quarterback. Johnson is worth a flex flier in deeper leagues and might be worth a high-risk play in some shallower formats as a boom-or-bust option.

Just don't go too crazy.

Beware: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Luck's ascent has made it hard to bench any Indianapolis pass-catcher this season, but Wayne is nowhere near 100 percent. Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star noted that Wayne is battling through a torn triceps to go along with elbow and knee issues.

As tough as Wayne is for gutting it out, his ailments have shown up on the stat sheet. He has compiled a paltry 46 yards over the last three weeks and made one reception for five yards Sunday despite being targeted eight times. It's fair to wonder whether Wayne should start ceding serious playing time to Donte Moncrief, who has looked like the far more explosive option in recent weeks.

Either way, keep him as far away from fantasy lineups as possible.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	14 Points
2	Jimmy Graham, NO	12 Points
3	Julius Thomas, DEN	11 Points
4	Antonio Gates, SD	8 Points
5	Greg Olsen, CAR	8 Points
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
7	Delanie Walker, TEN	7 Points
8	Travis Kelce, KC	6 Points
9	Jared Cook, STL	6 Points
10	Mychal Rivera, OAK	6 Points
11	Coby Fleener, IND	5 Points
12	Jordan Reed, WAS	5 Points
13	Owen Daniels, BAL	5 Points
14	Jason Witten, DAL	5 Points
15	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	4 Points

Top Dog: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Fun fact: If you hum the old-school Batman theme, the phrase "Gronk Spike" works as a syllabic replacement. I feel like that's information Gronk would enjoy.

Otherwise, I dunno. Start him. He's good.

Sleeper: Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Rivera isn't exactly a sleeper, but that's because they don't exist at tight end. The position is so shallow that any inkling of production is going to get notice from fantasy owners.

Nonetheless, after a two-week stretch in which he had just 29 yards, Rivera was back as a vital part of the offense in Sunday's win over the 49ers. He made seven receptions for a career-high 109 yards and a touchdown, marking the fifth time he's had at least five grabs in 2014.

The Chiefs have been very good about limiting catches to opposing tight ends but have been burned in the red zone. Rivera is a decent bet to find paydirt, even if he struggles to match his production from a yardage standpoint.

Beware: Jordan Reed, Washington

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Have you seen Washington play football lately? That should end any questions. 

Even if the nation's capital hadn't become a cesspool of infighting and incompetence, Reed is yet to prove he can stay on the field. The former Florida standout has bounced in and out of the lineup since his breakout last season, missing five contests so far in 2014 and parts of a few others.

Few doubt Reed's talent when he's 100 percent healthy. He's just in such a bad situation that it's impossible to tell what to expect on any given week.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Baltimore Ravens	vs. Jacksonville Jaguars	13 Points
2	Detroit Lions	vs. Minnesota Vikings	12 Points
3	Kansas City Chiefs	vs. Oakland Raiders	11 Points
4	Carolina Panthers	vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11 Points
5	Arizona Cardinals	at St. Louis Rams	10 Points
6	Tennessee Titans	vs. New York Jets	10 Points
7	New York Jets	at Tennessee Titans	9 Points
8	Seattle Seahawks	vs. San Francisco 49ers	9 Points
9	St. Louis Rams	vs. Arizona Cardinals	8 Points
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	at Carolina Panthers	7 Points
11	Cincinnati Bengals	at Cleveland Browns	7 Points
12	New York Giants	vs. Washington	7 Points
13	Minnesota Vikings	at Detroit Lions	6 Points
14	New England Patriots	vs. Miami Dolphins	6 Points
15	Cleveland Browns	vs. Cincinnati Bengals	6 Points

Top Dog: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens' injury-ravaged secondary taking on the Jacksonville passing game is like a fight between the two drunkest guys at a frat bar. At first it'll start out amusingly sloppy before devolving into a combination of tears and self-loathing that mentally scars anyone who watched in person.

It's worth banking on Baltimore's secondary to come out ahead on the sadness scorecard, if only because it looks slightly less like an irreparable mess. We've already highlighted the potential difficulties of Denard Robinson and the ground game, so any hope the Jags have of pulling the upset will come via Blake Bortles' arm.

Yikes.

Sleeper: New York Jets

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Rex Ryan's secondary, consigned to incompetence thanks to its low-end talent and nonexistent depth, has had its low points in 2014. The Jets have allowed an AFC-high 29 touchdown passes and have made only five interceptions, making them good for the second-quarter quarterback rating against in football.

Opposing quarterbacks have essentially averaged a Tony Romo-esque stat line this season against New York, which is just flabbergasting given the miracles Ryan has worked in past years.

Likely on his way out the door, Ryan has a chance to provide a reminder of the good times this weekend. The Titans are headed back to the Jake Locker well after another shoulder injury to Zach Mettenberger, per NFL.com's Chris Wesseling, and have struggled all season to build a competent passing game. Tennessee quarterbacks have been sacked 41 times and thrown 18 interceptions, both fourth worst in the NFL.

Beware: New York Jets

The Jets' starting cornerbacks have been drafted a combined zero times by NFL teams. You all go forward at your own risk.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Cody Parkey, PHI	12 Points
2	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
3	Adam Vinatieri, IND	11 Points
4	Justin Tucker, BAL	11 Points
5	Mason Crosby, GB	11 Points
6	Matt Bryant, ATL	10 Points
7	Steven Hauschka, SEA	10 Points
8	Randy Bullock, HOU	10 Points
9	Connor Barth, DEN	9 Points
10	Dan Bailey, DAL	9 Points
11	Caleb Sturgis, MIA	8 Points
12	Shayne Graham, NO	8 Points
13	Cairo Santos, KC	8 Points
14	Dan Carpenter, BUF	7 Points
15	Shaun Suisham, PIT	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

Parkey not attempting a field goal Sunday is an outlier in an otherwise excellent rookie campaign. He hit nine over his previous two games, and Week 14 was only the second time all season he's been held under seven points scored. Expect a bounce back.

Sleeper: Connor Barth, Denver Broncos

Barth has kicked six field goals in two weeks since joining the Broncos. Adding kickers on high-profile offenses is never a bad idea, given that at the very least you'll accrue a whole bunch of extra points.

Beware: Any and All Kickers

Speaking as someone who lost in his semifinals last season because Dan Bailey kicked five field goals and Mason Crosby had only one, the pain is real, my friends. Prepare yourselves accordingly.

Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or less of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Mark Sanchez	QB	Philadelphia Eagles	40.8%
Jonathan Stewart	RB	Carolina Panthers	47.4%
Matt Asiata	RB	Minnesota Vikings	31.2%
Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders	31.2%
Chris Johnson	RB	New York Jets	30.4%
Kerwynn Williams	RB	Arizona Cardinals	0.0%
Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins	33.7%
Charles Johnson	WR	Minnesota Vikings	9.7%
Mychal Rivera	TE	Oakland Raiders	20.3%

Playoff Advice: Be Wary of the RB Gauntlet

On the surface, the running back position looks loaded with potential studs ready to carry championship teams. I honestly did not know Kerwynn Williams was a human being until Sunday, and he rushed for 100 yards against a stellar Chiefs defense. Latavius Murray looked just fine rushing for 76 yards on the 49ers' front seven.

Jonathan Stewart was a beast, Matt Asiata is a person who starts at running back in the NFL and we already covered Chris Johnson at length. Each of these guys are available in more than half of ESPN.com leagues and are potential top-20 players.

Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

They also have the potential to single-handedly end your playoff run.

Williams hadn't received an NFL carry before Week 14. Murray plays for a Raiders team that travels to Arrowhead. We've been here once or 20 times with Stewart. Same with Johnson. Asiata is a person who starts at running back in the NFL but is not very good at that job. 

These are risk factors to take into account when making lineup decisions. Don't be a prisoner of the moment and abandon regular contributors who are struggling (e.g. Mark Ingram) over potential one-hit wonders.

Keeper Advice: Pick Up Johnny Manziel While You Still Can

In most long-term keeper leagues, Manziel has been drafted and stashed since August. His high-profile status likely made him so overdrafted that owners felt compelled to keep him around despite Brian Hoyer keeping the starting job.

That said, Manziel is still out there in some keeper and dynasty formats—especially ones with positional limits. My long-term franchise league forces owners to have only two quarterbacks on their roster at all times, which has kept Manziel unowned since the bye-week season started. With byes over and my backup Colin Kaepernick struggling, Manziel is already entered as my top waiver claim of the week.

Not only does he have a decent chance of getting the nod for Cleveland's final three games, but he also has value even if he sits. Odds are, someone in your league has an affinity for Mr. Football—enough to offer a usable running back or a priority pick in next year's draft.

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Darren Sproles	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	73.0%
Shane Vereen	RB	New England Patriots	72.6%
Bishop Sankey	RB	Tennessee Titans	53.4%
Darren McFadden	RB	Oakland Raiders	51.3%
Brandon Marshall	WR	Chicago Bears	99.1%
Reggie Wayne	WR	Indianapolis Colts	70.6%
Mohamed Sanu	WR	Cincinnati Bengals	66.3%
Percy Harvin	WR	New York Jets	52.9%

Top Drop of the Week: Shane Vereen (RB, New England Patriots)

With LeGarrette Blount back in the fold, Jonas Gray hanging out and Brandon Bolden getting occasional work, there aren't enough touches for Vereen to have value. The Patriots almost exclusively use Vereen as a pass-catching option at this point, offering him only 13 carries over the past four weeks. He's made 16 receptions in that timeframe but has been held out of the end zone and hasn't topped six fantasy points.

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Barring an injury, it's hard to see Vereen's role changing down the stretch. New England appears to have three running backs it's more comfortable handing the ball to, and Vereen is entirely touchdown-dependent outside of PPR leagues.

With a bevy of boom-or-busts available, it's better to roll the dice than hold faith Vereen's role will suddenly expand.    

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter 

All percentages via ESPN