NFL Picks Week 14: Forecasting Games with Biggest Playoff Implications

The 2014 NFL season has grown up before our very eyes. It seems like forever ago that the Dallas Cowboys lost 28-17 to the San Francisco 49ers, seemingly signalling another year of sorrow in AT&T Stadium.

Funny how things change as the year unfolds.

Now, only four more weeks remain until the playoffs begin, which adds more drama to each and every game from here on out. In addition, with only a few games separating most of the postseason contenders, one slip-up can carry heavy consequences.

Week 14 is loaded with plenty of mouth-watering matchups. It will be impossible to follow every single game, so it will be a good idea to pick out a few to really follow. There are some good 1 p.m. ET games, but the afternoon is when things will really get good.

Time (ET)	Away	Home	Line	Straight-Up Pick
Sunday
1:00 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -3	PIT
1:00 p.m.	St. Louis Rams	Washington Redskins	STL -3	WAS
1:00 p.m.	New York Giants	Tennessee Titans	Even	NYG
1:00 p.m.	Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	NO -10.5	NO
1:00 p.m.	New York Jets	Minnesota Vikings	MIN -5.5	MIN
1:00 p.m.	Baltimore Ravens	Miami Dolphins	MIA -2.5	BAL
1:00 p.m.	Indianapolis Colts	Cleveland Browns	IND -3.5	IND
1:00 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Detroit Lions	DET -10.5	DET
1:00 p.m.	Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	HOU -7	HOU
4:05 p.m.	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	DEN -10	See Below
4:05 p.m.	Kansas City Chiefs	Arizona Cardinals	Even	See Below
4:25 p.m.	Seattle Seahawks	Philadelphia Eagles	Even	See Below
4:25 p.m.	San Francisco 49ers	Oakland Raiders	SF -9.5	SF
8:30 p.m.	New England Patriots	San Diego Chargers	NE -4	NE
Monday
8:30 p.m.	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	GB -13	GB

Note: Betting lines are courtesy of Odds Shark.

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills

It seems a bit weird that in such a loaded week of NFL games, the Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos would warrant special consideration. That is, however, the case.

The Broncos are leading the AFC West, while the Bills have the same record as five other teams vying for the last wild-card spot.

With a loss, Buffalo could be in trouble. It still has to play the Green Bay Packers and wraps up with the New England Patriots on the road in Week 17. The Bills can't really afford to go 1-3 or even 2-2 to close out and still feel confident about their postseason hopes.

By falling to the Broncos on Sunday, they'd be putting a major dent in their push to the playoffs.

While the Bills have a defense that ranks among the best in the league, the presence of Kyle Orton under center makes you question Buffalo's chances.

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Bills head coach Doug Marrone questioned whether Orton will enter this game with a slight chip on his shoulder having been waived by Denver in 2011.

"I don't think that you want to put that stuff in your mind," Marrone said, per Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post. "The good thoughts, the bad thoughts, whatever it is, once you hit the field ... I don't think anyone's really thinking about that."

Even if Orton remains level-headed, it's hard seeing he and the Bills offense move the ball enough to keep pace with Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense. With C.J. Anderson's emergence, Denver also has that added dimension to compensate when the mercury drops and Manning's off his game a bit.

A win will strengthen the Broncos' stranglehold on the AFC West, while the Bills will leave little room for error in defeat.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 14

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle Seahawks

Over the last two weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed a combined six points and 368 yards. The offense doesn't need to score a ton of points as long as the defense is playing so incredibly well.

You couldn't envision a better clash of styles this week than the Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. Whereas Seattle's style is more methodical and physical, Philly wastes little time in gouging the opposing defense.

The Seahawks will have a chance to succeed where many have failed. NFL teams have apparently reached out to former Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti in order to try and solve Chip Kelly's fast-pace attack.

Nobody can accuse Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn of being unprepared. He admitted to The MMQB's Peter King that he watched tape from "pretty much all" of Philadelphia's 12 games:

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"I didn't just watch the coaches' tape," he said. "I wanted to watch the TV copy too, to judge the time from whistle to snap." In other words, he put a stopwatch on the video when the play clock began, and timed the seconds until the next snap happened. "If they want to play fast, they take 12, 13 seconds. That's pretty fast. Normally, they probably take 18, 19 seconds. Fortunately we've played against some teams that played pretty fast, so we’re accustomed to it."

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The Eagles know that a win on Sunday won't come easy, tweeting out that they're "ready for a football fight":

The old adage is that a good defense beats a good offense, but with all of the rule changes throughout the NFL in recent years, that's becoming less and less true. Seattle's run to the Super Bowl was a bit of an outlier.

If you've got a great offense, chances are you can beat just about anybody.

This game will serve as a nice barometer for both teams.

For Seattle, a win could mean getting into a tie for first place in the NFC West while simultaneously solidifying the Seahawks as strong contenders to repeat as champions.

The Eagles, meanwhile, could bump their lead over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East to a full game again. In addition, they could possibly jump ahead of the Broncos and/or New England Patriots in the NFL's current food chain.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Seahawks 20

Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals both enter Week 14 on two-game losing streaks, desperately in need of a win in order to not lose any more ground in their respective divisions.

The Chiefs are third in the AFC West, and a loss would likely only increase the gap. They'd also lose ground in the AFC wild-card race.

Kansas City closes the regular season with the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Diego Chargers, so the team doesn't want to have the postseason hinge on those final two games.

The Cardinals may be the top seed in the NFC right now, but they're in a similarly precarious position. The difference between No. 1 and the wild card is a single game, and the Seahawks are surging up the standings. Arizona's fortunes could take a quick turn if it loses to Kansas City on Sunday.

Drew Stanton originally looked strong after replacing an injured Carson Palmer, but he's since fallen back to earth. Over his last two games, Stanton has gone 38-of-65 for 443 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.

Former Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick feels the 30-year-old's recent run exposed him for being just a career backup quarterback:

Stanton's struggles might actually help a Chiefs offense bereft of go-to wide receivers. Arizona's offense isn't looking too good, which means this game shouldn't turn into a track meet.

Arizona has a great run defense, but the Chiefs counter with a great running back in Jamaal Charles. Kansas City offensive coordinator Doug Pederson admitted that Charles should have a larger role in the offense, but getting into early holes often forces the Chiefs to air the ball out, per Randy Covitz of The Kansas City Star:

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"We as a staff, and me as a coordinator, I have to allow him to touch the football as often as we can," Pederson said. "You look at the stat sheet and look at the targets and the number of touches that guys get, and then you go back and say, 'Oh, I wish I would have done this or I wish I would have done that, or more of this or less of that,' after the game, win or lose.

"You say, 'You know what, we should have given Dwayne (Bowe) two more targets, or given Jamaal two more or three more touches in a certain situation.' But again, as the game unfolds, it sort of dictates how you spread the ball around, and it's unfortunate that sometimes guys' touches are sometimes going to go down or up based on game situations."

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The Cardinals scored 27 points in the past three weeks, so a big deficit early in the game doesn't look to be in store for Kansas City. Arizona will see plenty of Charles, who will help to control the game for the Chiefs and break their losing skid.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Cardinals 14