Yasmany Tomas or Yoan Moncada: Who Is Better International Market Risk?

“Who would you rather have: Yasmany Tomas or Yoan Moncada?” has become a popular question over the last month, mostly because so little is known about them outside the industry, but also because they are two completely different types of players at different developmental stages in their respective careers.

Tomas, who recently signed a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, is more of a known commodity after playing parts of five seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional and starring in international tournaments such as the World Baseball Classic.

The 24-year-old outfielder has been glorified for his sheer strength and prodigious power and is expected to make an immediate impact hitting in the middle of Arizona's lineup.

And then there’s Moncada, a 19-year-old infielder who has emerged as one of the more hyped prospects in recent memory and seems poised to command a record-setting signing bonus for an international amateur.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Moncada, who’s age and lack of professional experience will make him subject to international spending restrictions, is expected to receive a $30 to $40 million bonus, putting him in the same range as fellow Cubans Yoenis Cespedes ($36 million) and Yasiel Puig ($42 million).

So, would a team be better off investing in Tomas or Moncada?

Tomas debuted as an 18-year-old in Cuba’s Serie Nacional during the 2008-09 season but didn’t emerge as one of Cuba’s more prolific hitters until 2011-12, when the then-21-year-old batted .298/.340/.581 with 20 home runs, 15 doubles, 50 RBI and a 57-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 272 at-bats (83 games).

Tomas added to his resume the following year with another strong offensive season, batting .289/.364/.538 with 15 homers, 18 doubles, 60 RBI and a 52-34 K/BB ratio in 277 at-bats. It was also the first time in Tomas’ Serie Nacional career that he played center field almost exclusively.

In his final year (2013-14) with the Industriales, Tomas’ playing time and production both were limited due to a wrist injury, but he still managed to turn in a solid offensive campaign, with a .291/.348/.452 batting line, 23 extra-base hits (six home runs) and 35 RBI in 230 at-bats.

As previously noted, the first thing you’ll hear about Tomas is that he possesses enormous raw power—legitimate 70-grade thump according to Baseball America's Ben Badler:

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A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne.

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Meanwhile, ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required) praised Tomas' swing mechanics and approach, stating that he’s “very short to the ball -- maybe even more so than [Jose] Abreu -- with good hip rotation and a very quiet approach.”

Scouting Baseball’s Kiley McDaniel also noted Tomas’s sound right-handed swing when discussing his power: “Tomas' power is mostly to his pull side and he'll swing out of his shoes at times, showing some attributes of a 4A slugger. That said, Tomas has a cleaner, quieter swing with more power than those types of hitters, though his bat speed is average at best.”

Though Tomas saw time in center field during his tenure with the Industriales, the consensus is that he’s better suited for a career in right or left field in the major leagues.

According to Law: “Tomas is a stout center fielder who'll have to move to a corner outfield spot, as he's a below-average runner with a stiff body who could probably stand to shed some weight before he signs.”

McDaniel also views Tomas as a corner outfielder, noting that “His frame is a little thick” for center field while his grade-55 arm strength gives him a chance to “play a solid right field.”

Overall, Law contends that a reasonable projection for Tomas would be an “average to slightly above-average regular in left field, with 25 to 30 homers, a low OBP and below-average defense.”

But the biggest concern with Tomas is his hit tool, which McDaniel believes might limit his power frequency in the major leagues: “Scouts think that inclination and bat speed will lead to a 45 or 50 bat (.250-.260 average, .320-.330 on-base) and the question is if that will be enough to get his 25 homer power in games, or he ends up being a platoon bat.”

And then there's Moncada, who debuted with Cienfuegos in Serie Nacional in 2012-13 as a 17-year-old, playing alongside 2014 American League Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu. The switch-hitter enjoyed a strong rookie season, batting .283/.414/.348 in 172 plate appearances to go along with 13 steals.

Badler notes some of Moncada’s other accomplishments from that season:

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Moncada also made his mark at the league’s all-star game, where Cuba holds certain skill competitions in addition to a home run derby. Among the events are races to first base and around the bases. At the 2012-13 all-star game, Moncada won both races, beating [Rusney] Castillo, a 70 runner on the 20-80 scale, and Guillermo Heredia, a 60 runner who started in center field in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.

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The 2013-14 season was Moncada’s last in Serie Nacional, and he went out on a high note after batting .273/.365/.406 in 195 plate appearances.

Though he’s established residency in Guatemala and been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, Moncada won’t be free to sign with a team until the Office of Foreign Assets Control officially clears him.

Personally, I’ve never seen Moncada play. However, it’s clear we’re talking about a potentially elite prospect.

Per McDaniel:

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Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6'1/210-pound frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet, and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age. 

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Meanwhile, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo reached out to sources that attended Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala in early November, with one scouting director saying the teenager is "worth going way over your international spending pool." Mayo added:

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Different sources had Moncada timed differently in the 60-yard dash, though he ran somewhere in the 6.56- to 6.6-second range. That gives him a 70 for his speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, or close to the top of the scale. He reportedly looked better at third and second than he did at shortstop, with enough arm from any infield position. Moncada swung the bat well from both sides of the plate, showing plus raw power both ways. The only negative was that he didn't face live pitching, hitting only off of a BP pitcher. When asked to grade out Moncada's tools based on this workout, in combination with previous reports, one scout gave the following grades:

Hit -- 60

Power -- 60

Speed -- 70

Arm -- 60

Field -- 50

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Ben Zobrist is a player that comes to mind when considering realistic comparisons for Moncada, as he’s a switch-hitter with speed and some pop who’s capable of playing most positions on the field.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Zobrist, 33, has earned more than $23 million over nine seasons in The Show—not including the $7.5 million option for 2015 already picked up by the Rays—but he also didn’t debut until his age-25 season, making attempts to project Moncada’s future value based on Zobrist’s career trajectory difficult.

Rather, given his age and elite power/speed projection, Moncada’s best offensive seasons might resemble those of Hanley Ramirez, who has batted .300/.373/.500 and averaged 21 home runs, 34 doubles and 29 stolen bases over nine years in the major leagues.

The 30-year-old Ramirez has earned over $71 million since entering the major leagues, per Cot’s, and he’s set to make at least another $88 million over the next four years on his new contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Yes, there’s almost a $50 million difference in value between Zobrist and Ramirez’s first nine seasons in the major leagues, but that might also represent the potential gray area between Moncada's floor and ceiling during the same time frame in his career, at least from a financial perspective.

There isn’t as much room left for projection with Tomas, but his carrying tool, prodigious raw power, is scarce in today’s game and therefore comes at a relatively defined price. With a six-year, $68.5 million pact, the Diamondbacks are investing in his realistic power floor for his early prime seasons, but hoping he outperforms the value assigned to his contract through all-round offensive production.

The market for Moncada, on the other hand, will be unique in the sense that it will only feature teams willing to ignore international bonus pools and pay a 100 percent tax on all overages, while also facing other spending penalties in future years. That means if he ends up getting a $30 to $40 million bonus, then the associated taxes and fines could push his final total cost above $75 million.

Basically, teams that ultimately go all-in on Moncada will view him as a franchise-caliber player worth building around for many years to come. I’m not saying Tomas won’t be that; for all we know he could blow past expectations much like Cespedes, Puig and Abreu. It’s just that there’s won’t be an immediate return on Moncada, as he’ll likely need a year or two in the minor leagues.

Therefore, a strong case can be made that Moncada is the riskier investment of the two players. But if you're willing to gamble on pure upside, it doesn't get more enticing than the 19-year-old infielder.