NFL Picks Week 14: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Bettors can take plenty of time to get the NFL Week 14 picks correct.

Last week, the holiday rush forced bettors to make quick-fire decisions on a trio of Thanksgiving games. The end result was more than a handful of folks burnt by Philadelphia's takedown of Dallas and Seattle's wiping the floor with San Francisco.

Week 14 is a new chance, though.

The matchups are in no way easy (the exception being San Francisco, which gets Oakland). They will induce plenty of stress. But with so many expert predictions and analysis already floating about, bettors stand a strong chance to make quality headway on the following midweek lines.

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Dallas at Chicago (Thurs, Dec. 4)	Cowboys -4	DAL	The woeful Chicago defense will have no answer for DeMarco Murray.
St. Louis at Washington	Rams -2.5	STL	St. Louis continues to fight and will take advantage of whoever lines up under center for Washington.
Houston at Jacksonville	Texans -6	JAC	Coming off a win the Jaguars can keep it close, but there is not enough talent to pull off the upset.
NY Giants at Tennessee	Giants -1	TEN	Zach Mettenberger looks the part and can take advantage of a New York team that has thrown in the towel.
Tampa Bay at Detroit	Lions -10	TB	Tampa Bay continues to lose close games, and Detroit has lost two of its last three.
Carolina at New Orleans	Saints -10	CAR	New Orleans is not beating any team by more than a touchdown at this point.
Indianapolis at Cleveland	Colts -4	IND	See analysis below.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	Bengals -3.5	CIN	Cincinnati gets a win at home by way of an elite rushing attack.
NY Jets at Minnesota	Vikings -6	MIN	Minnesota and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater are putting it all together at the right time.
Baltimore at Miami	Dolphins -3	MIA	Miami's elite defense will have what it takes to keep Baltimore in check.
Kansas City at Arizona	Cardinals -1.5	KC	Arizona suddenly looks very vulnerable and will struggle to contain the elite Kansas City rushing attack.
Buffalo at Denver	Broncos -9	BUF	A strong Buffalo defense actually stands a better chance than most realize if Peyton Manning struggles in the elements.
San Francisco at Oakland	49ers -8.5	SF	Oakland looks every bit the worst team in the league right now and won't stop the San Francisco rushing attack.
Seattle at Philadelphia	Eagles -1	SEA	The Seattle secondary will give Mark Sanchez plenty of issues.
New England at San Diego	Patriots -4	SD	See analysis below.
Atlanta at Green Bay (Mon. Dec. 8)	Packers -12	ATL	Atlanta just upset Arizona and seems to be rounding into form, although a trip to Lambeau Field will still be a loss.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Dec. 4.

Bleacher Report Expert Picks

Game	Matt Miller	Mike Freeman	Matt Bowen	Michael Schottey	Chris Simms
DAL at CHI	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
PIT at CIN	CIN	PIT	PIT	CIN	PIT
STL at WAS	STL	WAS	STL	STL	STL
NYG at TEN	NYG	TEN	NYG	NYG	NYG
CAR at NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
NYJ at MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	NYJ	NYJ
BAL at MIA	BAL	BAL	BAL	MIA	BAL
IND at CLE	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND
TB at DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
HOU at JAC	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
BUF at DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
KC at ARI	ARI	KC	ARI	KC	KC
SEA at PHI	PHI	SEA	SEA	PHI	SEA
SF at OAK	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF
NE at SD	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
ATL at GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB

Full view of Bleacher Report's expert picks available here. 

Analyzing Tough Matchups

Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Cleveland Browns

For at least one more week, bettors will not need to deal with the unknown element that is Johnny Manziel. 

During a 26-10 Cleveland Browns loss last week, coach Mike Pettine turned to the rookie and got a rushing touchdown and plenty of media hype in response. Despite this, he feels it necessary to still give veteran Brian Hoyer the nod under center.

"It wasn't perfect, and he's made his share of mistakes, but he's gotten the lion's share of reps in practice and virtually all of them in games and has us in the thick of a playoff hunt," Pettine told reporters. "That, to me, was probably the biggest determining factor."

Hoyer has completed 56.2 percent of his passes for 3,056 yards and 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions this season. However, his play will need to kick up a notch this week in a duel with Andrew Luck, especially considering the Indianapolis Colts rank 25th against the pass.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Speaking of Luck, an encounter with a top-10 pass defense on the road is not exactly a favorable matchup. That said, the fact Luck already has career highs in completion percentage (63.7) and touchdowns (34) speaks for itself.

Even if Luck has his issues, though, a date with the 29th-ranked rush defense bodes well for a certain someone who is out for revenge, as captured by Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com:

Trent Richardson only has 445 yards and three scores on the ground this season, but a motivated backfield tends to do damage against the Browns defense.

What figures to be a sloppy contest in the cold will defer to the quarterbacks. Luck obviously wins in this particular encounter, although if the line moves much further it will be time to reconsider the against-the-spread portion of the bet.

Prediction: Colts 26, Browns 20

New England Patriots (-4) at San Diego Chargers

Look: Tom Brady and New England failed some brave bettors last week in Green Bay, but now is not exactly the time to turn away from the Patriots after a loss at Lambeau Field. 

A five-point loss at that.

Before last week, the Patriots had won seven in a row and had completely blown out three teams headed to the postseason in the last month (Denver, Indianapolis, Detroit). Meanwhile San Diego struggled to move past Baltimore, St. Louis and Oakland, with a 37-0 shutout at the hands of Miami coming before that.

History says this one favors the Patriots, too. As an ESPN.com report notes, the Chargers are 1-5 with Philip Rivers under center against New England. Of course, the veteran quarterback is having none of that talk.

"We've never played this Patriot team," Rivers said, per ESPN.com. "We're 0-0 against this group. There's a lot of guys in that locker room that have never played the Patriots in their life. You can't really say this team is 1-5 against them."

It is hard to doubt Rivers in this scenario. The man is completing 69.1 percent of his passes this season for 3,218 yards and 25 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Just last week, he hit the road and threw three scores against Baltimore. 

Then again, Brady is at a 64.8 completion percentage with 3,243 yards and 28 scores to six picks.

Last week was but a slight bump in the road for the Patriots. The Chargers rely on time of possession to win games, but against an angry Brady coming off a loss, that will not be a viable tactic.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Chargers 21

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).