Daily Fantasy Basketball 2014: Best NBA FanDuel, DraftKings Lineup for Dec. 4
If daily fantasy basketball wasn't already a difficult enough game, days like Thursday ratchet the difficulty to its peak.
Only three games adorn the schedule, and on the surface it'd seemingly make decisions easier. There's no need to choose between eight relatively similar point guards because there aren't eight point guards worth choosing. The process of choosing players is in theory quicker, but the reality is far different.
Whittling the choices eliminates variance. In all likelihood, there will be multiple people with the same lineup as you or a slightly different variation. Whereas on most evenings you're being judged on the worthiness of all your choices, on Thursday thousands of dollars may come to a decision between Klay Thompson and Tyreke Evans. Or Anderson Varejao and Robin Lopez. Or even J.R. Smith and C.J. Watson.
The margin for error shrinks when everyone is picking from the same small pool of players. Picking Shawne Williams once this season was literally the difference between me finishing in the top 10 of a massive tournament and finishing outside the money.
But not that there's any pressure or anything. With that in mind, let's take a look at how you should set your lineup for Dec. 4.
| PG | Kyrie Irving | CLE@NY | $8,300 |
| PG | Jrue Holiday | NO@GS | $7,400 |
| SG | Klay Thompson | NO@GS | $7,600 |
| SG | J.R. Smith | CLE@NY | $4,300 |
| SF | LeBron James | CLE@NY | $10,700 |
| SF | Solomon Hill | IND@POR | $4,900 |
| PF | Ryan Anderson | NO@GS | $6,200 |
| PF | Amar'e Stoudemire | CLE@NY | $5,500 |
| C | Anderson Varejao | CLE@NY | $5,100 |
| PG | Jrue Holiday | NO@GS | $7,400 |
| SG | Wesley Matthews | IND@POR | $7,300 |
| SF | LeBron James | CLE@NY | $10,700 |
| PF | Ryan Anderson | NO@GS | $6,000 |
| C | Anderson Varejao | CLE@NY | $5,500 |
| G | Rodney Stuckey | IND@POR | $4,500 |
| F | Amar'e Stoudemire | CLE@NY | $5,500 |
| UTIL | C.J. Watson | IND@POR | $3,000 |
Point Guard
Similarity: Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans (FanDuel: $7,400, DraftKings: $7,400)
Mostly a price thing here. Holiday is significantly cheaper than Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard and only produces significantly worse (from a one-day fantasy perspective) than Curry. Given the difference between Curry and Holiday is $2,500 in FanDuel and $2,800 in DraftKings, it's essentially a decision to choose depth over an MVP candidate.
Holiday's assist numbers are a bit depressed with Tyreke Evans taking so much of the ball-handling duty, but he quietly fills the stat sheet in other ways. He's finished with fewer than 20 daily points just once (FanDuel scoring) all season.
Difference: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers (FanDuel: $8,300)
Have you seen the New York Knicks play defense this season? More specifically, have you seen the Knicks' point guards play defense since, I dunno, 1998? It's not a good scene.
Irving, who tends to thrive when the national lights are brightest, should be in store for a fine outing at Madison Square Garden. He's picked up his play of late after a slow start, putting up 30-plus daily fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games. The Cavaliers should—I repeat, should—be able to impose their offensive will on New York.
Odds are Iman Shumpert will spend extended time on Irving, but he'll be fine.
Difference: C.J. Watson, Indiana Pacers (DraftKings: $3,000)
Dude. I mean, come on. Watson, who may be the best healthy point guard on the Indiana Pacers roster at this point, is an absolute steal at $3,000. He's averaging 10.3 points, 4.7 assists and 2.0 rebounds in three games since returning.
These are the values you dream about on three-game nights.
Shooting Guard
Difference: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors (FanDuel: $7,600)
The only reason Thompson isn't on the DraftKings team is cost. He's $7,300 on a $50,000 budget there, a massive sum when it comes to trimming your team from "ideal" to "realistic." Wesley Matthews, who has been shooting lights out of late, allows an extra $1,200 of freedom.
Thompson only costing $300 more in FanDuel is far more feasible. He's the most consistent shooting guard available, and trusting Tyreke Evans' brand of basketball is a lot harder when Golden State has Andrew Bogut patrolling the paint. If anything, Evans may take a noticeable step back from his massive 30-point performance Tuesday night.
Thompson's offensive game won't be nearly as affected by Anthony Davis and Omer Asik patrolling the middle for New Orleans, simply because his production isn't as tied to rim runs.
Difference: Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (DraftKings: $7,300)
Keep on riding the hot hand until it bites you. Matthews went 5-of-15 from the floor in Tuesday's win over Denver, including a dreadful 1-of-10 rate from beyond the arc, but still finished with 15 points and enough daily points to not make you want to throw things.
That feels like Matthews' floor at this point. Given free rein from beyond the arc by Terry Stotts, Matthews has attempted at least 10 three-pointers in his last three games and no fewer than eight in his last five. It helps that he's been on a hot streak during this stretch, but Matthews appears to be in the perfect role for his skill set.
He hasn't been held to single-digit points all season, and there is little reason to think Thursday will be a first.
Difference: J.R. Smith, New York Knicks (FanDuel: $4,300)
I don't know, man. He's cheap. I'm gullible. Man...just leave me alone.
Difference: Rodney Stuckey, Indiana Pacers (DraftKings: $4,500)
Two Pacers guards? Two Pacers guards! Stuckey has scored in double figures five times in seven games since returning, including a two-game stretch where he had 46 points. Of course, he had a two-game stretch immediately afterward with 18 total points.
Them's the breaks when you're digging in the cheap bin. Sometimes you pull out the last copy of Anchorman, others you get one of the 46 remaining copies of Killers. (What's Killers, you ask? A high-budget Katherine Heigl, Ashton Kutcher vehi—oh, you don't need any more reason for why it bombed? OK, then.)
Time to cross your fingers and hope Good Stuckey comes to play.
Small Forward
Similarity: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (FanDuel: $10,700, DraftKings: $10,700)
LeBron James plus Madison Square Garden equals a whole lot of awesome. It's been that way for most of his career. James is on that special list of players—Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, etc.—who thrive under the New York City lights.
Some of James' best performances, including his 52-point triple-double that was later taken away, have come at the Garden. He's playing against a Knicks squad that's one of the four worst defensive teams in basketball, per NBA.com. These same Knicks run a complicated offensive scheme so incoherently that the Cavaliers will almost fall into defensive stops.
James has been a glaring minus defensively this season and hasn't looked quite right offensively at points. Thursday should be his best opportunity so far to start turning things around. Considering the relatively similar cost between him and one-day god Anthony Davis, taking James is a bit of a risk. It's just one I'm willing to take.
Difference: Solomon Hill, Indiana Pacers (FanDuel: $4,900)
Hill has scored in double figures five of his last six games and typically adds a handful of rebounds and a couple assists to the mix. Small forward is a rather shallow position Thursday outside James and Carmelo Anthony. Nicolas Batum has forgotten how to score, Draymond Green is battling a thumb injury and Harrison Barnes doesn't have a much better statistical profile than Hill.
Unless you can find some satisfactory team featuring James and Anthony, Hill is the best low-cost option.
Power Forward
Similarity: Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans (FanDuel: $6,200, DraftKings: $6,000)
Not the Pelicans forward most would have predicted, but a good one nonetheless. Anderson is on his way to his first Sixth Man of the Year award, and the best part is that he's not shooting all that well yet. He's connecting on 41.8 percent of his shots overall and 34.5 percent of his threes, which would be by far the lowest number of his career.
Anderson is nonetheless taking advantage when he's getting extended time. The former Cal star flummoxed Oklahoma City on Tuesday en route to a 23-point, 11-rebound night. He surprisingly did most of his damage inside the arc, making five of eight shots and getting to the free-throw line seven times.
The Warriors have done a good job of defending the three this season, but Anderson's effectiveness isn't as dependent on the arc as most expect. Here's to hoping Monty Williams remembers Anderson is on the bench waiting to be deployed.
Similarity: Amar'e Stoudemire, New York Knicks (FanDuel: $5,500, DraftKings: $5,500)
In his latest attempt to try anything to field a competent basketball team, Knicks coach Derek Fisher has inserted Stoudemire into the starting lineup. It hasn't resulted in one of those things where the Knicks score more points than their opponents, but it has made Stoudemire fantasy relevant again.
In two starts, he's put up 36 points and 21 rebounds while adding a few blocks. For as maligned as Stoudemire is defensively, he remains a largely effective offensive player. He's shooting 55.6 percent from the floor and has averages of 18.4 points and 11.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Though only an 18-game sample, this would be only the fourth time in Stoudemire's career he's averaged a double-double over the 36-minute criteria.
Center
Similarity: Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers (FanDuel: $5,100, DraftKings: $5,500)
When the best option on the board is Roy Hibbert, it's probably just best to go through logically and pick the best semi-cheap option. The Knicks' defensive middle is a leaking dam that no one has bothered to fix. No bubble gum put in place, no cheap spackling, nothing. Just a steady flow of shots near the basket washing over the despondent MSG crowd.
Varejao's high-energy antics are the exact type that give the Knicks trouble. Don't be surprised if he leaves Thursday night with a double-double.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
