Revisiting Preseason Predictions for the 2014-15 NHL Season

Preseason predictions, at least for a brief moment, are the most important thing in a sports fan's life. After a lengthy offseason, fans are parched for sports talk, and prognostications provide the fuel for the upcoming season.

Then the season starts, and everyone forgets about them, as everyone should.

For the most part, people who make predictions want you to forget about them as quickly as possible. 

Not me. That's why we are going to revisit the highs, lows and in-betweens of my preseason predictions. Any time I can open the door for ridicule (and praise) in the comments, I'm all for it.

This will look at a few predictions I'm feeling good about, a few that are still up in the air and a few that are downright bad. 

All statistics via NHL.com or Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.

Feeling Good: The Flyers Will Be One of the Worst Teams in the League

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Preseason take: "The Flyers were a bad puck-possession team that slipped into the playoffs last season, but there's just no way they'll get that lucky again. Unless Vincent Lecavalier is reborn this season and Luke Schenn becomes a Norris Trophy contender, there will be too many pucks in the back of the Flyers' net for them to contend for a playoff spot."

Current take: Perhaps I was too generous by predicting they'd finish with 76 points, as they are on pace for 66 points right now. The Flyers turned it around after a slow start last season, but we are two months into the season, and they are showing no signs of life. They are 26th in goals allowed per game.

Feeling Good: Islanders Make the Playoffs and Jack Capuano Wins the Jack Adams

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Preseason take: "The only reason to not think of the Islanders as a playoff team this year is because, well, they're the Islanders. They usually find a way to "Islanders" up situations. But this is a playoff-caliber roster. If everyone performs up their capabilities, a postseason berth should be the end result." That also includes the endorsement of Jack Capuano for coach of the year, which lacks a link as proof because no one else at B/R had him in his or her top five.

Current take: The Islanders are a slam dunk for a playoff spot in the East. They are 10 points clear of ninth-place Florida, and just about every team below the Panthers is a stronger contender for a top-five draft pick than a top-eight spot in the standings. Capuano isn't a lock for the Jack Adams Award, with Jon Cooper of Tampa Bay and Peter Laviolette of Nashville among others in the mix, but Capuano has my vote.

Feeling Good: The Lightning Will Win the Presidents' Trophy

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Preseason take: "The only thing that can derail the Lightning is them succumbing to expectations created within the organization and by idiots like me who predict they will come close to 120 points in the regular season. They have four great lines and six great defensemen, so as long as Ben Bishop follows up his breakout 2013-14 season with a similarly solid campaign, the Lightning can storm through the East."

Current take: Pretty much, that. Bishop has a great record (15-3-2), but his .917 save percentage is a little below his .922 last season. Some of that could be attributed to top defenseman Victor Hedman missing 18 games with a fractured finger. The Lightning lead the league with 37 points and have nine teams within at least four points, but their overall good health at the moment and the fact they play in the lowly East makes me feel optimistic about a Presidents' Trophy finish.

Feeling Good: The Predators Are Good Enough to Reach the Playoffs

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Preseason take: "They certainly don't have enough scoring to be a playoff threat, but they have all the ingredients to be a very good regular-season team. Their ceiling is likely a first-round playoff loss, but that's a nice season after two straight without a postseason trip."

Current take: The Predators are exceeding my wildest expectations, as they are on a 116-point pace under new coach Peter Laviolette. The Predators are scoring just 2.58 goals per game, but Pekka Rinne (16-4-1, 1.83/.932) is playing at an MVP-type level. The West is so dynamic that the top-seeded Predators are just six points ahead of ninth-place San Jose, but Nashville will be hard-pressed to miss the postseason.

Not Sure: A Montreal Canadiens-Los Angeles Kings Stanley Cup Final

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Preseason take: Nothing to quote here, but the rationale was the Kings were just as good, if not better than last year's team that won the Stanley Cup. The Canadiens have an elite goaltender in Carey Price and lots of young talent who would improve as the season progressed. It doesn't take much more than that in the East.

Current take: The Kings are the Kings, and what they do now has little bearing on my belief they will be the team to beat in the playoffs. The Canadiens, however, are a bit of a mystery to me. They are 17-7-2 with 36 points, but they haven't looked great getting to that record. They are dead-even in goal differential and are a middle-of-the-road possession team. I'm wavering on the notion they can win 12 games in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Not Sure: The Flames Will Be an 80-Point Team That Misses the Playoffs

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Preseason take: "The playoffs are a long shot but not an impossibility. The Flames are poised to take a step forward this year, but that step likely won't be into a wild-card spot. They're in the league's toughest division and will have their work cut out for them just to get to .500."

Current take: The Flames are 16-8-2 and third in the Pacific Division. I still believe the playoffs are a long shot but not an impossibility, as they are just six points clear of ninth place in the West. The 2014-15 Flames feel a lot like the 2013-14 Leafs, a team I never believed would reach the postseason at any juncture. Only three teams have a worse Fenwick percentage differential than the Flames. That doesn't bode well for the final 56 games of the season.

Not Sure: Drew Doughty Will Win the Norris Trophy

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Preseason take: I thought Tournament Drew Doughty (0.66 points per game in the playoffs) would show up more than Regular-Season Drew Doughty (0.50 points per game) in 2014-15. It's unfair that offense is weighted so heavily when judging a defensive position, but my belief was he'd get to that 55-point total and win voters over. 

Current take: With two goals and 13 points in 25 games, he's been his usual offensive self, which is plenty fine when you consider what he brings to the table defensively. With Slava Voynov out indefinitely, Doughty is logging even more minutes than usual, averaging 28:54 of ice time per game, second-most in the league. He's still in the Norris Trophy mix and could still win it if he can bolster his offensive numbers a little bit more.

Not Sure: The Capitals Will Be a Playoff Team Under Barry Trotz

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Preseason take: "They are smack-dab on the playoff borderline in the East. If Adam Oates was truly the problem, then Barry Trotz shouldn't have any problem pushing this team over the hump. But if the players are the problem, things aren't likely to change in Washington."

Current take: Man, I don't know. The fancy stats are better, the power play is second in the league at 28.4 percent, but the Capitals are still being outscored at five-on-five (47-43). That should all translate to a better record that 10-10-4. Braden Holtby hasn't been great in net, but he should get better. Or should he? I honestly don't know with this team. If it continues to play this way, it should get into a wild-card spot. Right? No, really, I'm asking. This team baffles me.

Missed It: Vancouver Will Finish with 77 Points

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Preseason take: "Life in the Pacific Division will be miserable for Vancouver. For those who believe John Tortorella's firing will result in the Canucks becoming a better offensive team, consider this: In Tortorella's final season with the Rangers, the team averaged 2.62 goals per game. Last year under Alain Vigneault, they scored 2.61 per game. It's very likely going to be a rough year for the Canucks."

Current take: Lots of wrongness in that previous paragraph. The Canucks lead the Pacific, are third in goals per game and this season has been about as rough as silk sheets. Maybe it's stubbornness, maybe it's my legendary hockey genius, but I still don't think the Canucks are a playoff team. I'll probably be wrong about that too, but I was definitely wrong about the Canucks finishing with fewer than 80 points.

Missed It: Cory Schneider Will Win the Vezina Trophy

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Preseason take: Cory Schneider had the best save percentage since 2010-11, was playing behind a consistently strong possession team in recent years and had a 1.97/.921 split in 45 games last season. With Martin Brodeur out of the way, Schneider would have a 40-win season and show the world he could have been a No. 1 goaltender a long time ago.

Current take: Well, if the Vezina Trophy was awarded to the goaltender who made the most starts, I'd have this clinched today. He leads the league with 24 starts and hasn't only dressed as a backup once. Schneider's numbers aren't poor—his .916 save percentage is one that has been steadily increasing all season—but he's certainly not winning the Vezina. 

Missed It: Dallas Will Be a 96-Point Team

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Preseason take: "It may be premature to consider the Stars contenders for a title, but they are in the mix to win the Central Division and win at least a round in the playoffs. As long as the injury bug doesn't bite them, they will be one of the funnest teams to watch in the NHL."

Current take: The reason for having the Stars in the playoffs was I couldn't imagine the Canucks being good enough to overtake them. Doubly wrong. The Stars are 9-11-5 and on pace for 75 points. We all knew the defense would be a question mark, but I thought it would be decent enough and the offense would carry the team. Nope. I was right about one thing—every Stars game is fun to watch, just not for Stars fans.

Missed It: Derick Brassard Will Struggle in a More Prominent Role

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Preseason take: One of the reasons why I didn't think the Rangers were a playoff team this year was all of their losses in free agency. But one of them was the buyout of Brad Richards, which meant Derick Brassard was going from a very sheltered third-line role to a bigger role on the second line. Brassard was very good last year (18 goals, 45 points) playing about 16 minutes per game, but now he'd face much tougher matchups, and I was skeptical.

Current take: Whoops. Brassard has eight goals and 20 points in 24 games while playing 18 minutes per game, a lot of it with Derek Stepan out the first month of the season. He went from a 53.6 percent Fenwick to 48.3 percent this year, an understandable drop now that he's facing stiffer competition. His shooting percentage is 17.8 percent, which figures to regress toward his career mark of 11 percent, but with Stepan back, his possession numbers figure to climb a little bit now that defenses can't focus only on him. Brassard has played very well in a bigger role.