Fantasy Football 2014: 5 Week 14 Sleepers to Start in a Pinch

The fantasy football playoffs for the 2014 season are set in most leagues. If you’re still reading, congratulations on making it this far. Odds are the average starting playoff roster won’t require the services of a waiver-wire sleeper, but Kenny Stills, Daniel Herron and Johnny Manziel are options just in case.

Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Andre Ellington and Jamaal Charles owners might want to take a closer look, with injuries threatening their Week 14 availability.

A sleeper in this context is any player available in approximately 50 percent or more of ESPN Fantasy leagues with a favorable matchup per ESPN’s fantasy points against statistic. Rankings and point totals are based on scoring leaders in ESPN standard leagues.

Defense/Special Teams: St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

St. Louis’ shutout against Oakland would have been the second in three weeks except for one broken play against Denver in Week 11.

The Rams elevated their game after losing yet another Governor’s Cup to Kansas City in a 34-7 thrashing. St. Louis held opponents under 21 points in the five weeks since, tied for third in passing touchdowns allowed (15).

Washington is tied for seventh in the NFL with 22 turnovers—13 interceptions and nine fumbles lost. Redskins quarterbacks lost five of the nine fumbles.

Most of Washington’s mistakes are attributable to Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins, which is why Jay Gruden tapped Colt McCoy for his third start in Week 14. McCoy played well in his first two starts—averaging 21 fantasy points—but the Titans and Colts rank 20th and 21st respectively in quarterback points allowed.

St. Louis ranks 13th, giving up just 15.4 points per game.

Trust the Rams—available in 44.1 percent of ESPN leagues—not the Redskins, to repeat their Week 13 performance.

Honorable Mention

• Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets
• New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Week 13 Results

• New York Giants (featured), finished tied for 12th with nine points
• Indianapolis Colts, tied for eighth with 11
• St. Louis Rams, first with 29

I do have a beef with ESPN: D/ST points against should only include points that were actually scored against the D/ST unit, right? Wrong, ESPN counts pick-sixes and fumble recoveries for touchdowns against that team’s D/ST even though it isn’t on the field at the time. Shabby. The Giants would have finished eighth with 12 points in a rational scoring system.

Tight End: Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins vs. St. Louis Rams

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Reed’s season-long performance wavered high and low thanks to injury troubles and instability at quarterback.

Two of his healthy starts coincided with both of Colt McCoy’s. Reed tied for the team lead in targets with seven in Week 8 and led with 11 in Week 13 as a result.

A Week 14 meeting with the fourth-toughest defense in tight end points against isn’t a great matchup on paper, but Washington will presumably have to air it out to keep up with the surging Rams offense. The Redskins defense ranks 31st, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Shaun Hill and Tre Mason should have a field day.

Reed is currently available in 40.7 percent of ESPN leagues. He’s worth a shot for anyone who doesn’t own Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas.

I probably wouldn’t bench Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen or Martellus Bennett for him, but after that it’s up for debate.

Honorable Mention

• Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets
• Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts

Week 13 Results

• Tim Wright (featured), tied for 30th with one
• Kyle Rudolph, tied for 15th with six
• Jermaine Gresham, tied for 21st with three

The point about Wright still stands: All Gronkowski owners (99.8 percent) should be Wright owners (10.8) in the playoffs.

Wide Receiver: Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

USA TODAY Sports

Stills is the top receiver filling the void left by Brandin Cooks’ season-ending thumb injury in Week 11.

-------------------	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TDs	Pts
Kenny Stills	15	13	260	1	31
Marques Colston	9	7	98	2	21
Jimmy Graham	10	6	47	2	16
Nick Toon	7	5	59	1	11
Pierre Thomas	12	8	53	0	7

That’s not to say Stills and Cooks offer similar skill sets, just that he’s currently Drew Brees’ No. 2 option after Jimmy Graham. (The fact that any Saints receiver outperformed Graham over this two-week stretch is inconsistent with the season-long numbers).

Carolina travels to the Superdome with the league’s ninth-most vulnerable passing defense, yielding 23.4 points per game. It looks like the New Orleans offense should dominate.

The problem with counting on a Saints player not named Drew Brees is you never know what you’re going to get. Even Graham isn’t immune to Sean Payton’s schematic whims, finishing with zero targets in a track meet against Pittsburgh in Week 13.

Stills is currently available in 59.7 percent of ESPN leagues. He could be the high-risk/high-reward answer to Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery owners with injury questions.

Honorable Mention

• Stedman Bailey, St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
• Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens

Week 13 Results

• Jarvis Landry (featured), tied for 41st with six
• John Brown, tied for 52nd with four
• Malcolm Floyd, tied for 30th with eight
• Charles Johnson, tied for 52nd with four
• Reuben Randle, tied for 48th with five

Donte Moncrief (25) almost outscored all five of my sleeper picks combined (27).

Running Back: Daniel Herron, Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Herron started over Trent Richardson for the second straight week, securing Indianapolis’ RB1 spot in the wake of Ahmad Bradshaw’s season-ending ankle injury.

Herron’s performance leaves Richardson in the rear view even though they are splitting carries.

------------	Touch	Yds	TDs	Pts
Herron	27	192	1	19
Richardson	21	54	1	11

Richardson actually ran the ball one more time than Herron over the past two games. He averaged 2.6 yards per carry over that stretch, compared to Herron’s 7.7 YPC. Richardson was nonexistent in the passing game with one target for zero catches.

Herron’s major flaw is ball security, losing two fumbles in each of the past two games. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star emphasized the problem quoting Chuck Pagano:

"

re: Boom Herron and fumbles, "There's nothing more important than protecting the football." It's a bit of an issue.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) December 1, 2014

"

If Herron—available in 46.7 percent of ESPN leagues—can hold on to the ball and thus his starting gig, he should post a productive outing against a below-average Browns run defense.

Jerick McKinnon, Rashad Jennings, Andre Ellington and Jamaal Charles owners should add Herron as game-time insurance in case they are sidelined by injuries.

Honorable Mention

• Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
• Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 13 Results

• Latavius Murray (featured), did not play
• Daniel Herron, tied for ninth with 12
• LeGarrette Blount, tied for 30th with five
• Pierre Thomas, tied for 37th with four

Murray did not clear concussion protocol 10 days after suffering the injury on Thursday night in Week 12.

Quarterback: Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

All the speculation about Manziel could be premature if Cleveland head coach Mike Pettine continues to start Brian Hoyer in Week 14. We should know today, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.

"

[I'm] not ready to make a decision on that at this point. I'm not leaning one way or the other, but there's a lot to consider. I don't know where I want to go, and it's certainly important. We'll spend a lot of time on it. I'll lean on the people I trust to help make it.

"

The comparisons between Manziel and Hoyer can be both rational and absurd, but Week 13’s loss to Buffalo provides the only on-field evaluation. Hoyer struggled through three quarters, passing 30 times for 18 completions, 189 yards and two interceptions. He totaled six interceptions in three games.

Manziel entered with 12:01 left in the fourth quarter, catching the Bills defense on their heels. He engineered an 80-yard march capped off by a 10-yard scramble for Cleveland’s only touchdown.

The NFL swiftly hopped on that gravy train.

"

Johnny Manziel scores his FIRST NFL TD. And busts out the $$$ sign!!! #BreakTheInternet #CLEvsBUF http://t.co/xLYMhG0DH5

— NFL (@nfl) November 30, 2014

"

Indianapolis is a favorable opponent if Manziel gets the call, allowing 16.5 PPG. Colt McCoy scored 26 on them in Week 13.

We know Browns owner Jimmy Haslam wants Manziel to start, as does the NFL based on that shameless attempt to “break the Internet.” Does the rookie head coach really have a choice?

Hopefully you have better lineup choices, but Manziel—97.3 percent-available—could make an interesting flier in two-QB leagues.

Honorable Mention

• Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
• Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets

Week 13 Results

• Ryan Tannehill (featured), 26th with eight
• Eli Manning, tied for 23rd with nine
• Teddy Bridgewater, 17th with 14

It was a tough week for sleeper quarterbacks not named Ryan Fitzpatrick (39), Colt McCoy (26), Shaun Hill (21), Blake Bortles (17)…

If anyone out there has a trained monkey that can throw darts, I might be open to trying that approach.