NFL Week 14 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

Nearly every game on the NFL Week 14 schedule bears significant playoff implications.

OK, so fans can ignore the New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans, unless they're rooting for one to successfully tank down to a better draft pick. Both at 5-7, the St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings are simply fighting to remain mathematically alive against Washington and the New York Jets, respectively.

All 13 other outcomes will tangibly affect the postseason picture, as the majority of the league still stores hope of playing past Week 17. That will happen when 19 teams lurk at or above .500 while another four occupy the NFC South.

Few of these pivotal bouts are no-brainers either, so let's take a closer look at a couple bouts too close for the oddsmakers to call.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears	DAL -3.5	DAL	Tony Romo bounces back against the NFL's third-worst passing defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -3	PIT	It's tough for a division winner to look less convincing than the Bengals.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns	IND -4	IND	The Colts have already obtained six victories by more than 15 points each. Regardless of who starts under center, the Browns complete their plummet back to earth
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions	DET -10.5	TB	Out of Tampa Bay's 10 losses, only two came by double digits.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars	HOU -5.5	HOU	Ryan Fitzpatrick won't throw another six touchdowns, but he'll do enough to best the Jaguars.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins	MIA -2.5	MIA	In a battle of two deserving playoff squads, Miami's No. 2 passing defense stifles Joe Flacco enough to win.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings	MIN -7	MIN	It's hard to do anything in the NFL without a passing offense.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints	NO -10	NO	As crazy as a 10-point spread seems for a 5-7 club, the spiraling Panthers deserve such a lack of respect inside the Superdome.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans	Even	NYG	The Giants fumbled three times last week, and both went for touchdowns. That doesn't happen every game.
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins	STL -2.5	STL	The last time Washington won by more than three points? Week 2 against Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals	Even	KC	See analysis below
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos	DEN -11.5	DEN	Denver will have little trouble covering the spread if it hits the team's 30-point-per-game average.
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders	SF -9.5	OAK	San Francisco hasn't won by more than six points since Week 6, so Oakland covers in a losing effort.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles	Even	SEA	See analysis below
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers	NE -3.5	NE	After losing to a Super Bowl contender on the road, New England exacts revenge at San Diego.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers	GB -13	GB	Good luck to Atlanta's league-worst passing defense stopping Aaron Rodgers on Monday night.

Analyzing Close Week 14 Spreads

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (Even)

Currently possessing the NFC's No. 1 seed, the Arizona Cardinals are still receiving respect despite a recent downfall riddled with offensive ineptitude. 

With Drew Stanton in charge, Arizona has scored one touchdown in the past three games, a last-minute score down 19 to the Atlanta Falcons. ESPN Stats & Info documented the unit's struggles.

The replacement quarterback hasn't helped by throwing five interceptions during those games, but Andre Ellington hasn't offered any support through the ground. He has now compiled 101 combined yards during the past four games, diminishing his season average to 3.3 yards per carry.

Stanton won't get anything done against Kansas City's premier passing defense, and Ellington is not certain to play after leaving Sunday's game with a hip flexor. The Cardinals won't score many points, but they also have the right defense to contain the Chiefs.

The matchups make this one interesting, as both defenses are terrific on one front and dreadful on the other. The Cardinals can shut down the run, but they stink against the pass. After getting burned for 361 yards by Matt Ryan, Arizona now rates No. 27 in passing defense. Just imagine if Mike Smith attacked his opponent's weakness rather than running 31 times.

To make matters worse, they'll play without safety Tyrann Mathieu, who will miss time with a thumb injury, per AZCardinals.com's Darren Urban.

Of course, Kansas City isn't the perfect unit to exploit that weakness. Over the past few weeks, Alex Smith found out the hard way that not throwing to wide receivers hurts when playing from behind. But golly gee, the veteran just wins. Yeah, but he's also averaging 6.75 passing yards per attempt.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Crediting Smith for leading the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers to victories is the equivalent of praising an MLB pitcher for winning 18 games with a 3.75 ERA and the best offense in baseball. Against a bleak and battered Arizona secondary, he needs to be more than a placeholder.

Jamaal Charles can't shoulder all the burden, but Smith just needs to manage his offense to 17-20 points. Sounds reasonable for a team boasting a higher differential despite two fewer wins.

Prediction: Chiefs 17, Cardinals 10

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (Even)

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Either of these teams could win its respective division, seize a first-round bye, get jettisoned to the wild card or miss the playoffs altogether. There's little room for error in the crowded NFC, which makes the Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles a monumental showdown.

If the above predictions holds credence, Seattle can draw even with Arizona for first place in the NFC West. Holstering a head-to-head victory with over double the point differential, the Seahawks ought to be considered the favorites to retain their division crown.

But hey, the Eagles are 9-3 with the league's fourth-highest point differential (+90) behind the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. Stuffed. Carved. Use whatever Thanksgiving pun you want. They dismantled the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday.

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

They outgained the Cowboys by more than 197 yards, mostly due to a reversal of fate from both star running backs. While DeMarco Murray procured a season-low 73 rushing yards, his second game below 100 yards, LeSean McCoy cemented his resurgence with a season-high 159 rushing yards and a score.

Following an alarming start that sent fantasy owners into panic mode, McCoy now has 1,018 rushing yards this season with 377 during his past three outings. He has also returned to the end zone more often with Mark Sanchez under center, per ESPN Stats & Info.

McCoy credited improved offense line play for his rebound, per NJ.com's Eliot Shorr-Parks.

"I had so many more opportunities to make guys miss one-on-one," McCoy said. "So much more space. They are getting back. This is my line again. These are the guys who get it done."

He's not the concern here. Mark Sanchez against the Legion of Boom? Yeah, that makes the Eagles a tough bet, even if they're 6-0 at home. Sanchez hasn't faced a top-10 passing defense since taking over for Nick Foles, and he hasn't exactly erased past turnover woes with a trio of two-interception outputs.

Meanwhile, Russell Wilson gets a Philly secondary that is stout some weeks and atrocious during others. During its recent stretch, Seattle has outscored its opponents by 59 points. It's still a Super Bowl contender despite some early hiccups, and expect that to become clear at Philadelphia's expense.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Eagles 23