Ranking the 10 Most Overpaid Players in MLB
The very nature of MLB free agency makes it virtually impossible not to grossly overpay for a superstar.
Given the arbitration system, a player serves six seasons before hitting the open market, which means most guys are near or past 30. That means the top options are hot off their peak seasons, but the perspective buyers are signing up for the inevitable decline.
Throw in steep competition hiking up prices, and few top-tier free agents will ever come at a bargain. If somebody wants a big-time asset, that team will have to veer a few more dollars or years outside its comfort zone. That type of pressure led the Toronto Blue Jays to give 31-year-old catcher Russell Martin five years.
The fear of losing a franchise cornerstone coerced the Miami Marlins to dish out a 13-year extension to Giancarlo Stanton. Any readers have a child in Pre-K? He or she will be heading off to college by the time that new pact winds down.
The current snapshot of MLB’s most overpaid players represents a who’s who of veritable studs. All-Stars and MVPs occupy this list. Unfortunately, they’re now in the Robert De Niro “phoning it in as a shell of himself for a payday” stage of their careers.
Scrumming for ways to pay the rent? Feeling disgruntled about working your butt off without receiving the appropriate compensation? This list will probably infuriate you.
Before going forward, an important disclaimer: Contract length matters big time. Several players are making far more than they deserve over the next year or two, but that pales in comparison to someone with six years left on a questionable deal.
Honorable Mentions
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There's no shortage of players who rode past glory to a check full of zeroes, only to see their production wane over time. All these veterans are due salaries well above a fair market price.
Brian McCann, C, NYY (4 years, $68 million)
Joe Mauer, 1B, MIN (4 years, $92 million)
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B/OF, WAS (5 years, $74.5 million)
Carl Crawford, OF, LAD (3 years, $64.8 million)
Andre Ethier, OF, LAD (3 years, $53.5 million)
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYM (3 years, $47 million)
Carlos Beltran, OF, NYY (2 years, $30 million)
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, BAL (3 years, $38.75 million)
Ricky Nolasco, SP, MIN (3 years, $36 million)
Edwin Jackson, SP, CHC (2 years, $26 million)
Tim Lincecum, P, SFG (1 year, $18 million
Brian Wilson, RP, LAD (1 year, $10 million)
Not Yet, But...
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Right now, these three superstars are still performing like superstars. Their respective organizations will happily shell out their dough for MVP-caliber production, but how many horror movies start with a murder?
The scary part is coming down the road. Sooner or later, the buyers are going to regret these gigantic deals.
Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Remaining Contract: 9 years, $216 million
Even during a down season, Robinson Cano hit .314/.382/.457 with a 5.2 WAR. If he can sustain that slash line, the Seattle Mariners can accept that he's not a 30-homer threat outside of Yankee Stadium.
Cano may be worth $24 million now, but how about in 2018, when he'll already be 35 years old and locked up for six more years?
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Remaining Contract: 9 years, $270 million ($30 million club option in 2024, 2025 with $8 million buyout)
This contract nearly made the dubious list this season, so there's no doubt Miguel Cabrera's deal will eventually be regarded in infamy. Eager to keep him aboard, the Detroit Tigers now must roster him past age 40.
Behind close doors, Detroit executives are panicking about his lowest home run output (25) since a shortened 2003 rookie season. Such burly sluggers rarely age well, and Cabrera's decline has already gradually begun.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
Remaining Contract: 13 years, $328 million ($25 million club option in 2028 with $10 million buyout)
Stanton can't technically get labeled an overpay, as his record-setting extension actually makes him one of baseball's greatest bargains for three more years. He'll earn just $30 million over the next three seasons, and he can opt out after 2020, at which point he'll accrue $107 million for six discounted seasons.
When he's generating roughly $30 million a year past his peak, he'll become a problem. That's assuming he doesn't exercise his opt-out clause, which will only enhance his bank account if he maintains Ruthian production during his 20s.
10. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
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Remaining Contract: 9 years, $206 million ($20 million club option for 2024 with $7 million buyout)
This one hurts. Joey Votto’s elite plate discipline makes him one of baseball’s most underappreciated stars among casual fans, but the Cincinnati Reds recognized his 15.0 career walk percentage in his massive 10-year extension.
One year in, Votto had a season to forget. In addition to missing 100 games, the usually dependable first baseman hit an underwhelming .250 with six home runs and a .409 slugging percentage. Suddenly, the Reds must be sweating owing him $206 million through the next nine years.
That’s a long time to commit to an employee, especially an athlete who will turn 40 before that deal ends.
If anybody can overcome the unforgiving Father Time, it’s Votto and his .417 career on-base percentage and 25.3 percent line-drive rate. But yikes, what if his power continues to decline? What if he loses a step in his 30s and no longer serves as a stout defender? What if his body continues to betray him, as bodies are wont to do to veterans?
If there’s one guy who will no longer draw consideration on a similar list next year, it’s Votto. There’s a solid chance he bounces back strong and the perspective changes to “well, the final three or four years will probably stink, but that’s a problem to worry about later.”
Let’s hope so, as for better or worse, the Reds are stuck with him for nine more years.
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9. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
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Remaining Contract: 2 years, $45 million
Plunging into his mid-30s, Mark Teixeira is no longer able to play a full season or perform particularly well in limited action.
A year removed from playing just 15 games, Teixeira served as a seemingly daily day-to-day with bruises here and there. He logged 508 plate appearances through 123 games, hitting a humdrum .216/.313/.398 over that period.
Extreme pull tendencies and an elevated 41.5 ground-ball percentage explain the average dip, one that is unlikely to receive an extreme correction during his final two years with the New York Yankees. At this point, they’d be lucky to get a .250 average and 25 homers from him.
That’s obviously not worth the $45 million he’s due for two more years, but nobody is going to shed a tear for the Yankees, who won a World Series in the inaugural year of his eight-year agreement. Enduring the dreaded final years of such a win-now contract is a familiar ordeal for the big spender.
Teammate CC Sabathia gave him some competition with a similar two-year deal remaining, but he maintained promising strikeout and walk tallies during a disastrous 2014. If he stays healthy, he’ll give the Bronx Bombers quality enough innings to fend off complaints.
If Rob Manfred announced his arrival as MLB’s new commissioner by giving each team an amnesty clause, Teixeira doesn’t even enter Brian Cashman’s frame of thought. The fan favorite will hit enough home runs to not appear to be a catastrophe, and there’s this other infielder inflicting much more damage on the team’s payroll and psyche.
8. Shin Soo-Choo, OF, Texas Rangers
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Remaining Contract: 6 years, $114 million
Salaries are at an all-time high, and TV deals give teams flexibility to shell out more money in free agency. It’s not much of a surprise to see such a recent deal already work its way into infamy.
Heading into last winter, Shin-Soo Choo rode a stellar .423 on-base percentage to a blockbuster payday from the Texas Rangers. Despite his stellar batting eye, handing seven years to a 31-year-old with a limited ceiling immediately smelled fishy.
Even then, skeptics couldn’t have expected the arrangement to sour this quickly. In his first year, Choo hit .242/.340/.374 in 123 games before his season ended with an elbow injury.
Given the immense risk of committing to someone into his late 30s, the Rangers needed Choo to manufacture their money’s worth in the early years of the pairing. Instead, they’re already in the black with six years to go.
Plate discipline is the last skill to dissipate, so a healthy Choo shouldn’t corrode. Yet elbow concerns now add to his minus-42 defensive runs saved (DRS) since 2012, meaning he’ll need to reach base at around a .400 clip to hold his own as a superstar worthy of netting $20 million a year.
7. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
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Remaining Contract: 5 years, $140 million ($22 million vesting option in 2020)
A heavily used Justin Verlander is declining by the year, and the Tigers must pay him ace money for five more years.
Have fun with that.
During a highly disappointing 2014, Verlander notched a 6.95 K/9 ratio and a 4.54 ERA, both the second-worst clips of his nine-year career.
This fall-off didn’t pop up from nowhere, as he surrendered 20 runs during May 2013, while his velocity diminished from prior norms. Look no further than his workload to wonder what happened, as he logged at least 200 innings through each of the past eight seasons.
Throw in 77 postseason frames accrued from 2011-14, and Verlander, who turns 32 before next year’s Opening Day, won’t last the duration of his lengthy agreement.
Only Clayton Kershaw will accumulate more than Verlander’s $28 million in 2015, yet five Detroit starters posted better ERAs last season. Sounds like the definition of overpaid, as Verlander is now a mid-rotation starter getting paid like the Cy Young winner he once was.
6. B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
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Remaining Contract: 3 years, $48.15 million
Barring a miraculous revival, B.J. Upton’s five-year, $72.5 million deal will go down as one of the most catastrophic signings in MLB history.
Upton’s .208/.287/.333 slash line from 2014 actually represents a considerable improvement over his .184/.268/.289 line during his first year with the Atlanta Braves. He attracted Atlanta’s interest by generating 28 homers and 31 stolen bases in 2012, but he has delivered a combined 21 long balls and 32 steals over the past two years.
More importantly, he’s submitted a minus-0.2 WAR as the team’s most expensive player. The torture isn’t over yet, as the Braves are on the hook for three more years.
Plenty of other overpaid outfielders wield similar bloated contracts (Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Curtis Granderson), but they all at least contribute, even if at well below expectations. If not for sunk costs, Upton would get treated as no more than a No. 4 outfielder.
5. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Remaining Contract: 2 years, $50 million
Tied for the shortest deal on the list, Ryan Howard received the dubious honor for two grossly overpaid years left on the Philadelphia Phillies payroll.
Nobody understood the extension he inked in 2010, and the anticipated disaster has unfolded. Over the past three years, Howard has performed minus-one run below replacement, most recently hitting .223/.310/.380 with a minus-0.3 WAR in 2014.
Pure power hitters tend to erode, especially when they struggle to make contact or play defense. At age 35, Howard’s pop becomes wildly mitigated by all of his other gigantic flaws. A .225 hitter against fellow southpaws, he’s also rightfully no more than a limited platoon player at this stage of his deteriorating career.
Like it or not, the Phillies are stuck covering his exorbitant tab for another two years. Don’t feel too bad for them, though, as they should have known better than to give a one-dimensional first baseman on the wrong side of 30 a long-term extension.
If this list solely looked ahead to 2015 salaries, Howard would top the bad-contract leaderboard.
4. Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers
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Remaining Contract: 6 years, $144 million
Last offseason’s biggest trade got off to a nightmarish start for the Texas Rangers. While Ian Kinsler provided Detroit the upgrade it yearned for at second base, Prince Fielder recorded below-average production in a short sampling.
Playing just 42 games before undergoing season-ending neck surgery, Fielder notched a .247/.360/.360 slash line with a minus-0.3 WAR. The power monster expected to fortify Texas’ offense belted three measly home runs, 22 below his previous career worst.
Before saying Texas should have foreseen health woes given his bulky frame, Fielder had previously not missed a game since 2011, playing in all but 13 contests from 2006-13. No human is immortal, and every athlete risks getting hurt.
Even if Fielder bounces back with a clean bill of health in 2015, his salary remains a gigantic concern over the next six years. Set to turn 31 in May, the first baseman logged a then career-low .457 slugging percentage and 25 deep balls in 2013.
Given his lack of contribution on the field and basepaths, that doesn’t cut it for a superstar. Sluggers with a similar power repertoire tend to decay in the harshest of ways, so it’s reasonable to fret the end of Fielder as an All-Star who crushes 35 dingers and slugs over .500.
Considering he’ll net $24 million per year up until passing his 37th birthday, Texas needs that guy to merit his cost. This situation is likely to get far worse rather than settling down.
3. Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels
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Remaining Contract: 3 years, $92.2 million
Others saw an injury-prone slugger mashing in the hitter-friendly Arlington Park, but the fearless Los Angeles Angels saw an opportunity to buy a dynasty. Maybe they should have realized those other things before handing Josh Hamilton an empty check.
Los Angeles desired a torturer of baseballs, but instead it summoned an outfielder who played 240 combined games in the past two seasons with a .742 OPS. His 31 homers and 123 RBI since 2013 are probably what the Angels wanted on a yearly basis.
Don’t let anyone tell you ballpark doesn’t matter. Since joining the Angels, Hamilton has hit .241/.299/.362 in his new home after batting a career .315/.373/.592 at Arlington.
At 33 years old, his constant ailments become an increasing concern. The lefty played 89 games in 2014 with numerous injuries, including shoulder problems in September. No knock on his .857 away OPS with the Rangers, but the discrepancy should have raised an eyebrow before awarding him $123 million over five years.
After 2015, Hamilton’s yearly rate balloons to a ludicrous $32.4 million during 2016 and 2017. As of now, that will make him the highest-paid position player in both years, and he’s certainly far from the best.
2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
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Remaining Contract: 3 years, $64 million
Other teams at least try to hide their contempt for players bloating their books. The New York Yankees, however, are counting the days until they can rid themselves of the headache known as Alex Rodriguez.
If the performance-enhancing drug stigma wasn’t enough to rue his contract, Rodriguez is still due $64 million, despite playing 265 games over the past four years. He’ll turn 42 before those three years expire.
Meanwhile, Brian Cashman continues to look for a third baseman in free agency, showing his lack of faith in Rodriguez returning without a hitch. When speaking to ESPNNewYork.com’s Wallace Matthews, he wouldn’t commit to A-Rod holding a regular gig in 2015:
"He’s going to compete for at-bats and for a position. The position would be third, and obviously DH and that’s it. Maybe some time at first base. He may be eventually the everyday third baseman, he may be the everyday DH; I just don’t know. I'm going to do everything in my power to drum up some opportunities that are realistic and present them to ownership that may or may not involve third base. I don’t know. It’s very early in the process.
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The Yankees would love simply to get 2012 A-Rod, who hit .272/.353/.430 with 18 homers and a 1.9 WAR. That guy isn’t worth anywhere close to $21 million, but he’d at least contribute at the plate. It’s more likely they get a slower, rustier player who can no longer play defense.
Which is a shame, because he used to play a mean shortstop until moving to placate that other guy.
1. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
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Remaining Contract: 7 years, $189 million
When the Angels signed up for 10 years of Albert Pujols, they realistically had to hope for about five years of superstar Pujols to make the groundbreaking contract worth the while. Unfortunately for them, the MVP and future Hall of Fame first baseman never truly showed up to California.
Since joining the team in 2012, Pujols is hitting .273/.332/.478 with a 7.8 WAR. Middle infielders Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar have procured higher WARs over that same stretch.
Pujols, who turns 35 in January, has seen his on-base percentage depreciate in each of the past six seasons. That’s a frightening trend for the Angels, who will watch a failed gambit get worse over the next seven years of a backloaded deal. His hefty salary will keep hitting the Angels harder, as his income increases by $1 million every year, starting from $24 million next season all the way to $30 million in 2020.
That’s right—Pujols will make $30 million during his age-40 season. This is a player who has already regressed from best in the business to a plus power threat. Not only do they have to watch him gradually deteriorate until he’s completely unrecognizable, but the Angels will pay him more as it happens.
Let that be a lesson to anyone who thinks a superstar free agent can save an MLB franchise. More often than not, he’ll instead handicap the organization’s payroll.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs. Contract information obtained via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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