Re-Ranking the Top 10 MLB Offseason Targets Entering December

The first full month of the MLB offseason has seen some of the biggest free-agent names come off the board.

Victor Martinez re-signed with the Detroit Tigers for $68 million over four seasons. Russell Martin inked a five-year, $82 million accord with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Perhaps the biggest moves (or move, depending on how it’s looked at) so far belong to the Boston Red Sox, who inked Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to $183 million in guaranteed money. In the process, the Red Sox dramatically improved the lineup and put the rest of the American League East on notice that 2015 promises to be a different season.

And how can we look past the contract Yasmany Tomas received from the Arizona Diamondbacks? Lightly rumored to be in play for the Cuban free agent, general manager Dave Stewart made a big statement by inking Tomas to a six-year, $68.5 million deal.

So, what does the top 10 look like after all of the early movement? Here are the 10 best MLB free agents—with two honorable mentions—based on fWAR (FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement) still left on the open market as the calendar gets set to turn to December. 

Honorable Mention: David Robertson, RHP

STEVE NESIUS/Associated Press

David Robertson is at the top of his game.

2014 Stats with New York Yankees
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
63	64.1	3.08	2.68	1.057	13.43	3.22	1.7

David Robertson has been impressive for some time, putting up a 2.20 ERA, 2.40 FIP and a 1.097 WHIP over his last four seasons. 

And like Andrew Miller (more on him in a moment), Robertson will have his pick of landing spots. It depends on who can offer him the most security, of course, but several clubs are rumored to be interested.  

MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart noted that the Houston Astros are “going hard” after a reliever of Robertson’s ilk. The New York Yankees should make Robertson priority No. 1, according to the New York Daily News’ Bill Madden.

Honorable Mention: Andrew Miller, LHP

Associated Press

Like David Robertson, Andrew Miller misses the cut based on WAR, but he is worth the hype.

2014 Stats with Red Sox and Orioles
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
73	62.1	2.02	1.51	0.802	14.87	2.45	2.3

Andrew Miller deserves to be in the top 10. Not only was he dominant in 2014, but the breadth of his work over the past three seasons—2.57 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 1.050 WHIP, 13.6 strikeouts every nine innings—is truly impressive.

We may not have to wait much longer to find out which uniform Miller dons next season. According to The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, the left-hander “is moving closer to a decision.” Cafardo noted that “at least 10 teams” are involved.

10. Aaron Harang, RHP

Dave Tulis/Associated Press

Aaron Harang is in the conversation when it comes to starting pitching.

2014 Stats with Atlanta Braves
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
33	204.1	3.57	3.57	1.400	7.09	3.13	2.5

From 2005 through 2007, Aaron Harang was worth an impressive 14.5 fWAR for the Cincinnati Reds. He then went six seasons without posting an FIP below 4.14 and topped 2.0 fWAR only once.

A strange thing happened on the way to free agency, however. After replacing Freddy Garcia in the Atlanta Braves rotation during spring training, in what Sports Illustrated dubbed a “curious swap,” Harang put together 25 quality starts, pitched to a 3.57 ERA and finished with a 12-12 record.

It was a fine run for the veteran right-hander.

How well it translates into long-term security is another question altogether, but there is no mistaking that Harang is worth the investment at the back end of a rotation.

Unlike some of the other pitchers on this list, unfortunately, there aren’t many rumors regarding his future. If he insists on a two-year deal, his options are limited. If, however, he is agreeable to a one-year contract, Harang will find his services in high demand.

9. Nick Markakis, RF

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Nick Markakis is as solid as they come in right field.

2014 Stats with Baltimore Orioles
G	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	HR	RBI	fWAR
155	.276	.342	.386	.111	14	50	2.5

With the exception of 2012, Nick Markakis has appeared in at least 147 games per year and averages 16 home runs, 73 RBI, 35 doubles per season. Couple those stats with a career .290/.358/.435 slash line, and you have an exceptional corner outfielder.  

As impressive as the sheer weight of his numbers is the fact that he’s put them up without ever clubbing more than 23 home runs or driving in more than 112 runs in any given season. True, his slugging has slipped in recent years, but since he never depended on raw power, the impact on his game has been minimal.

Now, conventional wisdom holds that he will re-sign with the Baltimore Orioles. After all, he is a fan favorite, an on-base machine and has proved to be an integral part of manager Buck Showalter’s lineup.

To that end, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman recently reported that “the Orioles and longtime outfielder Nick Markakis are in talks again, and there seems to be optimism again to get a four-year deal done.”

That said, Markakis’ agent, Jamie Murphy, is being pragmatic about the situation and will continue engaging with other clubs on his client’s behalf, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

The San Francisco Giants have emerged as a potential landing spot, according to a separate report from Heyman, who went so far as to say that general manager Brian Sabean is “initiating talks” with Markakis, among others. Consider this a fluid situation that will be resolved in the coming weeks.

8. Melky Cabrera, LF

STEVE NESIUS/Associated Press

Expect for Melky Cabrera to make a decision sometime soon.

2014 Stats with Toronto Blue Jays
G	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	HR	RBI	fWAR
139	.301	.351	.458	.157	16	73	2.6

Melky Cabrera is a tremendous ballplayer. He can hit for power, has speed and, while his defense is subpar, his offense ranks ahead of fellow free agents Torii Hunter, Nori Aoki and Nick Markakis.

He’s also more valuable to the lineup based on offensive rating and wRC+, according to FanGraphs, than Jason Heyward, who was recently dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals, or Yoenis Cespedes, who continues to be the subject of trade rumors. Add in the fact that he’s a switch-hitter who can get on base, and his value is apparent.

Because of that, it stands to reason that Cabrera will get the biggest contract among outfielders available this offseason.

Potential destinations include the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles.

“The move would make sense for the improving the White Sox,” wrote CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, “who struggled from the No. 2 position in the batting order last year." Cabrera would also serve as an immense upgrade over Dayan Viciedo in left field while allowing Avisail Garcia to remain in right.

The interest for the Orioles is really as a “fallback option,” according to MASNSports.com's Roch Kubatko, as Markakis is the preferred target. As Kubatko noted, the Orioles would lose a first-round draft pick if they sign Cabrera because of the qualifying offer from the Toronto Blue Jays the outfielder turned down, but they would gain one if Nelson Cruz signs elsewhere.

Speaking of the Blue Jays, they appear to still have an interest in bringing Cabrera back. That is especially true after general manager Alex Anthopoulos traded for third baseman Josh Donaldson, per Heyman.

7. Ervin Santana, RHP

Laurence Kesterson/Associated Press

Ervin Santana should end up with a contending club.

2014 Stats with Atlanta Braves
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
31	196.0	3.95	3.39	1.306	8.22	2.89	2.8

Since 2010, Ervin Santana has averaged 32 starts and 207 innings pitched while posting a 3.88 ERA and a 4.21 FIP. And if we consider that those numbers include his disastrous 2012 campaign (5.16 ERA, 5.63 FIP), the production actually becomes more impressive.

Now, some could point to the fact that a few of his metrics improved this past season because he pitched in the National League, diminishing his value to an American League team. That belief is countered by the reality that he performed at a high level in the AL as recently as two seasons ago with the Kansas City Royals.

Because of his production in Kansas City, a reunion with the Royals is possible. To that end, The Kansas City Star’s Andy McCullough wrote that “the Royals will at least consider a reunion with Santana, a 31-year-old right-hander, according to people familiar with the situation, but they will not be the only club seeking his services.”

McCullough’s report was followed up by one from CBS Sports' Jon Heyman that noted Santana will be a "focus" this offseason for Royals general manager Dayton Moore.

The Miami Marlins are another possible destination. They were mentioned by Clark Spencer from the Miami Herald as someone who could complement Jose Fernandez when he returns.

To be sure, there are more options for Santana. Once some of the other pitchers come off the board, expect Santana’s market to heat up.

6. Brandon McCarthy, RHP

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Brandon McCarthy will have his choice of destinations.

2014 Stats with Diamondbacks and Yankees
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
32	200.0	4.05	3.55	1.275	7.88	1.49	3.0

If you had said prior to his trade from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the New York Yankees that Brandon McCarthy would be the best available starting pitcher on the open market not named Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields, many around the game would have questioned your sanity.

Not that he was a terrible pitcher prior to the trade. After all, he was pitching to a 3.82 FIP and had a 4.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 18 starts for the Diamondbacks. It’s just that his 3-10 record and 5.01 ERA didn’t scream “sign me to a four-year deal.”

Well, after posting a 2.89 ERA with a 3.22 FIP, 1.151 WHIP and an impressive 6.31 K/BB for the Yankees, McCarthy is at the top of many clubs’ wish list.

Regarding potential destinations, there are a few.

The Kansas City Royals have been linked to McCarthy by Andy McCullough from The Kansas City Star. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman noted that the Yankees have actually “engaged” the right-hander, but he is waiting to see what the free-agent market has in store once the big names come off the board.

Other than those two, just about every MLB club could use McCarthy in the middle of the rotation. MLBTradeRumors.com’s Steve Adams posited that the San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox are among a handful of teams in the mix for his services.

5. James Shields, RHP

Elsa/Associated Press

James Shields will likely wait for Max Scherzer and Jon Lester to set the market.

2014 Stats with Kansas City Royals
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
34	227.0	3.21	3.59	1.181	7.14	1.74	3.7

James Shields is in rare company this offseason, joining Max Scherzer and Jon Lester as the only upper-echelon starters on the open market.

And if you don’t think Shields is an ace, think again. Postseason struggles aside, there simply aren’t 29 other pitchers that are better at what they do than Shields is.

True, Shields is 32, which could impact the length of a new contract, but he’s put up an FIP below 3.60 in each of the last four seasons and is 24 games over .500 for his career. Those are fantastic numbers.

In fact, it's metrics like those that will give him many options this offseason, and suitors are already lining up. 

The San Francisco Giants, for example, are looking to add “an elite free-agent starting pitcher, per John Shea from the San Francisco Chronicle. Shields certainly fits that mold.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are another club in the market for the right-hander. True, they will have to find room on payroll, which “may be impossible,” according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, but after adding Yasmany Tomas, there is every reason to believe that it is, in fact, feasible. Rosenthal also added that the Miami Marlins are considering Shields.

Consider Shields' fate tied to Lester and Scherzer. That is to say he will likely have to wait until they sign before truly understanding his place on the market.

4. Nelson Cruz, DH

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Nelson Cruz is the best hitter still available.

2014 Stats with Baltimore Orioles
G	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	HR	RBI	fWAR
159	.271	.333	.525	.254	40	108	3.9

When the conversation turns to pure sluggers still on the open market, the first name mentioned is Nelson Cruz.

Since 2008, he has finished with an OPS above .820 every season but one. And the one year he didn’t hit the mark, he still compiled a .779 OPS thanks to 24 home runs and 45 RBI. The point here is that if right-handed power is what’s on the agenda, Cruz is the man.

Yes, he is limited in the field. Truth be told, he is one of the largest liabilities in MLB, but for an American League club that can slot him in at designated hitter, the fact that he can’t run, catch or throw matters little.

The Seattle Mariners are just one club that fits. To that end, they will look at Cruz as an option, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. And we can’t overlook the right-handed hitter re-signing with the Baltimore Orioles.

One thing impeding contract negotiations is the availability of players rumored to be on the trading block, including Justin Upton and Evan Gattis from the Atlanta Braves. We shall see what happens, but Cruz may find his market isn’t as large as he once believed.  

3. Chase Headley, 3B

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Chase Headley will try to capitalize on his singular presence on the free-agent market.

2014 Stats with Padres and Yankees
G	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	HR	RBI	fWAR
135	.243	.328	.372	.130	13	49	4.4

You read that right. Chase Headley is No. 3 on the list of available free agents.

Of course, if it weren’t for his trade to the New York Yankees in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. But the point remains: Headley produced at a high-enough level both offensively and defensively last season to warrant renewed optimism about his future.

That said, the level of interest in his services wouldn’t be as high as it is if it weren’t for a couple of recent developments.

First, Pablo Sandoval signed a five-year, $95 million contract with the Boston Red Sox last week. And then the day after Thanksgiving, the Oakland A’s shipped Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie and three prospects, including right-hander Kendall Graveman, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Put another way, Headley is the best of what appears to be left.

Among teams interested in Headley are the New York Yankees, although an industry source told Mark Feinsand from the New York Daily News that general manager Brian Cashman won’t overspend for his services.

The San Francisco Giants are also intrigued, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. And MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince reported that the “Indians are among several teams who have shown an interest in" the switch-hitter.

2. Max Scherzer, RHP

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The market for Max Scherzer is expected to heat up rather quickly.

2014 Stats with Detroit Tigers
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
33	220.1	3.15	2.85	1.175	10.29	2.57	5.6

If it were up to Max Scherzer’s agent, Scott Boras, the right-hander would be on the top of this list—by a long way.

As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman shared, Boras recently dropped a wealth of empirical data that suggests Scherzer is worth far more than the six-year, $144 million contract it is widely reported he turned down during spring training. You can take a look for yourself, but the points Boras makes ring true. Scherzer is a talented pitcher.

Like the other hurlers on this list, however, the market has been slow thus far. That is not to say he’s been without suitors.

The San Francisco Giants, for example, are eyeing Scherzer following the loss of Pablo Sandoval to the Boston Red Sox, per a separate article by Heyman. And MLB.com’s Jason Beck noted not too long ago that the nature of the statements coming from Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski seem to indicate that a return to the Motor City isn’t as far-fetched as it once appeared.

The Washington Nationals have also been linked to Scherzer. Noting that ace Jordan Zimmermann has repeatedly spurned offers from the front office, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal opined that a trade between the Nationals and Los Angeles Angels involving Howie Kendrick could be a prudent one.

1. Jon Lester, LHP

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Jon Lester is reportedly drawing quite a bit of interest.

2014 Stats with Red Sox and Athletics
G	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	fWAR
32	219.2	2.46	2.80	1.070	9.01	1.97	6.1

True, Max Scherzer has fewer innings on his right arm than Jon Lester has on his left, but Lester was worth more WAR in 2014 and thus remains on top of the free-agent list.

His value isn’t strictly related to his WAR, of course. Lester finished in the top nine in ERA, FIP and innings pitched, per FanGraphs. Flat out, he’s a steady pitcher who consistently produces top-of-the-rotation results.

Now, where he lands is anyone’s guess, but there is no shortage of potential destinations.

Already this offseason, he has met with the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs. Of the three, the Red Sox and Cubs reportedly made offers. The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports the offer from the Red Sox falls "into $110-$120 range over six years,” and CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan (via Tony Andracki) has the Cubs’ proposal well above $135 million.

There was also a brief moment when it was believed that he was scheduled to meet with the St. Louis Cardinals, according to Peter Gammons. Derrick Goold from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch refuted that claim, however.

And then there are the San Francisco Giants. General manager Brian Sabean is set to visit with Lester this week, per ESPN.com. The idea there is that the club will use some of the money it had earmarked for Pablo Sandoval in an attempt to beef up the starting rotation, which is thin after Madison Bumgarner.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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