Week 13 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Each week, there are always a couple of games that Vegas oddsmakers seem to get just right, making them very difficult to wager. While bettors usually avoid contests like this, it always feels good to beat Las Vegas at its own game and take down the house with a win.

Due to the playoff race intensifying with just five weeks remaining in the NFL season, games are beginning to result in narrower winning margins. This has led oddsmakers to significantly trim down the Week 13 point spreads, giving just one contest a line that exceeds a one-score margin.

With all 32 teams in action due to the end of bye weeks, bettors have plenty of avenues that could lead to an increase of wealth. However, those tough-to-call games are always intriguing, so let's delve into some analysis for a couple of those tricky matchups. But first, here's a look at the week's entire slate, corresponding odds and a pick against the spread for each contest.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Chicago at Detroit	DET -7	Lions	Jay Cutler could barely beat Tampa Bay; he won't keep up with Detroit.
Philadelphia at Dallas	DAL -3	Cowboys	Too many Mark Sanchez turnovers will spoil Philadelphia's Thanksgiving.
Seattle at San Francisco	SF -1	Seahawks	Russell Wilson's efficiency and versatility gives the Seahawks the upper hand here.
Cleveland at Buffalo	BUF -2.5	Bills	Buffalo's defense will not be kind to a suddenly struggling Brian Hoyer.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	PIT -4.5	Steelers	Expect Le'Veon Bell to have a field day against a Saints team that has been terrible against the run.
San Diego at Baltimore	BAL -6	Ravens	Baltimore is too deep of a team to lose to a battered Chargers team that had to travel across the country.
Carolina at Minnesota	MIN -3	Vikings	See analysis below.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	NYG -2.5	Giants	The Jaguars are sluggish on both sides of the ball. New York can at least score points.
Washington at Indianapolis	IND -9.5	Colts	There will be too much Andrew Luck for this Washington secondary to handle.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	CIN -3.5	Bengals	The Bengals are headed to the playoffs, and the Buccaneers are headed for a high draft pick.
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -6.5	Titans	Uncertainty at the quarterback position for Houston will allow the Titans to keep pace.
Oakland at St. Louis	STL -7	Raiders	St. Louis is playing better, but so are the Raiders. Expect a close one here.
Arizona at Atlanta	AZ -2.5	Cardinals	There's no way Atlanta's struggling offense gets around Arizona's stout defense.
New England at Green Bay	GB -3	Packers	Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped at home, even by the mighty Patriots.
Denver at Kansas City	DEN -2	Broncos	See analysis below.
Miami at NY Jets	MIA -7	Dolphins	The Jets reminded us how bad they are on Monday night. Miami will take advantage.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 26.

Breaking Down Toughest Week 13 Calls

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

The difference-maker in this matchup will be how well Panthers quarterback Cam Newton fares against a very good Vikings secondary. Newton is well rested coming off a bye week, but Minnesota's defense has recently hit its stride.

Carolina is normally a very good rushing team, but it hasn't been able to get anything going out of the backfield this season, leading to more of a one-dimensional attack. That hasn't been beneficial to Newton, as his 80.3 passer rating is the lowest of his four-year career.

Of course, the team's offensive line hasn't exactly been much help, allowing the quarterback to deal with constant pressure. Even when Newton's Twitter account was hacked, several analysts, including Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, couldn't help but deliver some well-timed offensive line jokes:

Meanwhile, the Vikings have been making life difficult for opposing signal-callers. Minnesota is fourth in the league with 31 sacks this season, and the secondary is reaping the benefits, ranking seventh against the pass and allowing an average of just 223.5 yards per game through the air.

If Newton can't get a passing game going, Carolina will lose the battle for field position, giving Teddy Bridgewater and Co. plenty of short fields to work with.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Panthers 17

Denver Broncos (-2) at Kansas City Chiefs

Much like the aforementioned game, the key to this contest is a quarterback stepping up. No, not Peyton Manning. He's officially back in form after tossing four touchdowns against a very good Miami Dolphins secondary in Week 12. Let's talk about Alex Smith.

The last time these teams faced off, the Chiefs were able to keep up, but Alex Smith was severely outmatched. Here's a look at his numbers versus Manning's:

Player	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Peyton Manning	21/26	242	3	0	143.9
Alex Smith	26/42	255	0	0	79.0

Kansas City dominated the time of possession in that contest, but the lack of a threat at the wide receiver position kept the team from producing any kind of big plays. After all, running the ball will be difficult for the Chiefs this week against the Broncos' second-ranked run defense.

Miami was able to keep up with Denver through 60 minutes of action in Week 12 due to the solid play from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He tossed three touchdown passes and led five scoring drives, but that resulted in a three-point loss. Smith has produced two three-touchdown performances this year, but not since Week 4.

At least the quarterback received a bit of help this week, via Kansas City's official Twitter account:

Although, Jason Avant isn't exactly a game-changer, catching just one touchdown pass and recording no more than 54 receiving yards in any game this season with the Panthers.

Without the kind of passing game to keep up with the high-octane Broncos, we shouldn't expect the Chiefs to bounce back this week following a Thursday Night Football loss to the Oakland Raiders.

Prediction: Broncos 30, Chiefs 24