NFL Predictions Week 13: Upset Picks and Projections

In the rush of holiday madness, try not to forget to get those Week 13 NFL picks in before Thursday.

Really, some of the lines are better than any deal on Black Friday.

Others, not so much. Like any week, searching for upset gems to make some decent financial gain is the name of the game. This week is tougher than most in this regard, hence the smaller lines, but there is still plenty of coin to be made for those who enjoy risks.

Below, let's take a look at the full slate and a few upsets to grab before they are no longer classified as such.

NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Chicago at Detroit	DET -7	Lions	Jay Cutler cannot help but turn the ball over, which puts a miserable defense in miserable situations.
Philadelphia at Dallas	DAL -3	Cowboys	DeMarco Murray is going to run wild all over the soft Philadelphia defense.
Seattle at San Francisco	EVEN	Seahawks	Seattle slips by as Marshawn Lynch takes advantage of an injured defense.
Cleveland at Buffalo	EVEN	Browns	Josh Gordon's breakout game will down the Bills.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	PIT -3	Steelers	Pittsburgh is erratic, but New Orleans cannot win on the road or at home right now.
San Diego at Baltimore	BAL -4.5	Ravens	Baltimore is lucky this one comes at home, where it can ride Justin Forsett to victory.
Carolina at Minnesota	MIN -3	Vikings	Minnesota has a solid defense and can hurt the reeling Carolina defense.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	NYG -3	Giants	The small spread showcases just how bad both teams are this year.
Washington at Indianapolis	IND -10	Colts	Andrew Luck vs. anyone Washington trots out is bound to get ugly.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	CIN -4	Bengals	Make it three in a row on the road for the Bengals as a stable of backs runs wild.
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -6.5	Texans	So long as Arian Foster is in the lineup, Houston will run away with this one.
Oakland at St. Louis	STL -7	Raiders	Teams that continue to fight need a game-breaking factor, which would be Latavius Murray.
Arizona at Atlanta	EVEN	Cardinals	Arizona will get back on track thanks to a matchup with a downtrodden Atlanta defense.
New England at Green Bay	GB -3	Patriots	See analysis below.
Denver at Kansas City	DEN -1.5	Chiefs	See analysis below.
Miami at NY Jets	MIA -4	Dolphins	An elite Miami pass defense is set to have a field day against the circus that is the Jets.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 26.

Top Upset Picks

New England at Green Bay (-3)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

One of the greatest quarterback showdowns of the year is ripe for an upset.

It is also a bit of a historic occasion, as ESPN Stats & Info points out:

Many will cry foul considering the Green Bay Packers have not lost at Lambeau Field this year, but the list of those who attempted the feat—New York Jets, Minnesota, Carolina, Chicago, Philadelphia—is not exactly littered with quality.

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are a different beast entirely.

Brady has been on a tear as of late and has the Patriots on a seven-game winning streak. He is flanked by a defense led by Darrelle Revis that ranks 17th against the pass and 14th against the rush. 

Whether Aaron Rodgers likes it or not, all of the talk about this contest will continue to be about the men who reside under center. Despite this, he has made it clear that Sunday is a team effort, as he said on his ESPN radio show, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky: 

"

I don't have a void in my career for not playing them more times. I have a ton of respect for them in their careers, but again I don't ever look at it like it's one quarterback against another. It takes 11 every single play to be effective. We play against some great teams in the NFC all the time. They've spent their careers in the AFC and that's kind of the way it's gone.

"

	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
Aaron Rodgers	2,957	66.7	30	3
Tom Brady	2,998	65.0	26	6

Rodgers himself leads the eighth-ranked passing attack but is not backed by a defense as strong as the one behind Brady. 

While a 13th-ranked pass defense has been a surprise in Green Bay, a 30th-ranked rush defense will continue to be a liability.

This is especially the case now that the Patriots have a new lead back in LeGarrette Blount. Shortly after joining the team, he rushed for 78 yards and two scores on 12 carries.

Look for Blount to abuse a shaky defense to keep the crowd quiet before Brady goes over the top to pull off the upset. 

Prediction: Patriots 23, Packers 20

Denver (-1.5) at Kansas City

It is no sheer coincidence that Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have suffered all three of their losses on the road this season. 

The spread here is being altered dramatically by the minute for good reason.

Think back to Week 2, when the Kansas City Chiefs visited Denver. There, Manning threw a trio of touchdowns but escaped with just a 24-17 victory. The Denver defense was gashed by Chiefs backup running back Knile Davis for 79 yards and two scores.

It makes sense, then, that Manning has his team on high alert this week, as captured by ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold:

Interestingly enough, Kansas City is one of the rare teams that has found success on the ground against Denver this season. Manning has been great (3,558 yards, 34 touchdowns), but it certainly does not hurt that he is flanked by the league's No. 2 rush defense.

Pertinent readers will notice something, though—there has been no mention of Jamaal Charles yet.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Charles averages 5.1 yards per carry this season and has 772 yards with eight scores despite injury issues and strange usage habits by coach Andy Reid early in the season. At home, he is sure to produce well alongside Davis, which will do much to keep Manning off the field.

When Manning is on it, though, he will have to overcome the league's top pass defense. The Chiefs surrender less than 200 passing yards per game on average. Combine that with a potent rushing attack, and it is easy to see why this is one of the week's most popular upset picks.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).