Ranking Signing Odds for Cuban Phenom Yoan Moncada's Top 8 Suitors
A case can be made that this year’s most intriguing free agent isn’t Max Scherzer or Jon Lester.
Rather, it’s Yoan Moncada, who has dominated the headlines of late, as Major League Baseball officially declared him a free agent on Nov. 15, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. However, the 19-year-old Cuban infielder won’t be free to sign until the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) clears him.
Moncada, whose open workout in Guatemala earlier this month was seen by an "estimated 60-70 scouts," per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, has quickly emerged as one of the more hyped prospects in recent memory and is expected to destroy the record for spending on an amateur player.
According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Moncada is expected to receive $30 to $40 million, putting him in the same range as fellow Cubans Yoenis Cespedes ($36 million) and Yasiel Puig ($42 million).
The only difference is that Moncada’s age and lack of professional experience will make him an amateur international free agent and therefore subject to international spending restrictions, meaning any team willing to give Moncada $30 to $40 million basically will be ignoring its bonus pool.
So, which teams have the best chance of signing the 19-year-old phenom?
Here’s a look at eight clubs currently in the market for Moncada, which were originally highlighted as potential suitors by Ben Badler of Baseball America.
Background
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Moncada debuted with Cienfuegos in Serie Nacional in 2012-13 as a 17-year-old, playing alongside 2014 American League Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu. The switch-hitter enjoyed a strong rookie season, batting .283/.414/.348 in 172 plate appearances to go along with 13 steals.
Ben Badler of Baseball America notes some of Moncada’s other accomplishments from that season:
"Moncada also made his mark at the league’s All-Star Game, where Cuba holds certain skill competitions in addition to a Home Run Derby. Among the events are races to first base and around the bases. At the 2012-13 All-Star Game, Moncada won both races, beating Castillo, a 70 runner on the 20-80 scale, and Guillermo Heredia, a 60 runner who started in center field in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.
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The 2013-14 season was Moncada’s last in Serie Nacional, and he went out on a high note after batting .273/.365/.406 in 195 plate appearances.
Back in early November, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported Moncada had defected from Cuba and established residency in Guatemala. However, the lack of information surrounding his departure from the island, as well as the relative ease with which he established residency, has raised eyebrows within baseball’s inner circles, says Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs:
"It’s assumed by people in the international baseball industry that Moncada is at some juncture in the same process that Puig was in and that Moncada will be "found" once the right people get paid, which could be any day or much longer. It may not be pretty, but this is what elite Cuban baseball players have to do to get paid these days.
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Passan suggests something similar and wonders whether the Cuban government truly allowed Moncada to leave:
"They wonder how he got to Guatemala, and how he did so on what his handlers say is a legal Cuban passport, meaning the government OK’d his departure, something never before done for a high-level ballplayer. Further, they speculate how much money it’s going to take to sign him. And then they try to understand how one kid from Cuba could change the entire structure of amateur talent around the world.
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He goes on to mention that Moncada will become a free agent once Major League Baseball has finished its standard investigation into his residency in Guatemala and the Office of Foreign Assets Control has officially cleared him to sign with a team.
Scouting Report
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I’ll be the first to admit that, like most people, I’ve never seen Moncada play in person. That said, it’s clear we’re talking about a potentially elite prospect.
Per McDaniel:
"Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6'1/210 frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet, and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age.
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Meanwhile, Mayo reached out to sources who attended Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala on Wednesday, with one scouting director saying the teenager is "worth going way over your international spending pool." Mayo added:
"Different sources had Moncada timed differently in the 60-yard dash, though he ran somewhere in the 6.56- to 6.6-second range. That gives him a 70 for his speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, or close to the top of the scale. Moncada reportedly looked better at third and second than he did at shortstop, with enough arm from any infield position. He swung the bat well from both sides of the plate, showing plus raw power both ways. The only negative was that Moncada didn't face live pitching, hitting only off of a BP pitcher. When asked to grade out his tools based on this workout, in combination with previous reports, one scout gave the following grades:
Hit - 60
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Power - 60
Speed - 70
Arm - 60
Field - 50
There is no available video of Moncada at the moment, so unfortunately, all we have to go on are industry articles and various reports. However, it’s enough to know that if the baseball community is this excited about Moncada, then we should be, too.
8. Los Angeles Angels
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After blowing past their international bonus pool to sign 20-year-old Roberto Baldoquin (with a record-setting $8 million bonus), it was widely assumed that the Los Angeles Angels, who were already facing an overage tax and future international spending restrictions, would also try to sign Moncada.
However, a source tells MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter) that there is “not a chance” the Angels go after Moncada this offseason.
Regardless, Moncada seemingly would be a perfect fit in the Angels’ system, as their farm system is thin on infield prospects after trading away second baseman Taylor Lindsey and shortstop Jose Rondon at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. On top of that, the 19-year-old Moncada would potentially have a clear path to playing time in the major leagues with both Howie Kendrick and David Freese set to hit the open market following the 2015 season.
Odds: 20-1
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7. Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals seem to be one of the more under-the-radar teams in the sweepstakes for Moncada, if only because of their track record of limited spending on international talents.
That being said, the organization has been aggressive in the first-year player draft in recent years, targeting both upside and value in the form of injured pitchers such as Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) and Erick Fedde (16th overall, 2014).
With that in mind, Baseball America’s Ben Badler contends Moncada “could tempt [the Nationals] to make a big investment now on the international side,” citing the team’s need for a second baseman moving forward with Anthony Rendon set to take over at third base full-time next season.
Odds: 17-1
6. Detroit Tigers
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The Detroit Tigers were one of many teams that sent representatives to view Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Detroit hasn’t been directly linked to the 19-year-old infielder compared to other potential suitors, though Badler makes sure to note that the organization “hasn’t been shy about pushing the market when it comes to big amateur investments.”
With a farm system that’s incredibly thin on positional talent, the Tigers would greatly benefit from adding a promising talent such as Moncada. At the same time, Detroit is known for challenging its top prospects—especially ones with impact potential—meaning he’d likely be forced to compete with Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler for a spot on the team’s future infield.
Odds: 15-1
5. San Francisco Giants
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San Francisco Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans recently told KNBR radio that the team is interested in both Yoan Moncada and Yasmany Tomas, per a tweet from Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (h/t Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors).
“The Giants are trying to become more active in the Cuban market,” writes Ben Badler of Baseball America, “and with a fairly light farm system, Moncada would be a good fit, and a potential Pablo Sandoval replacement at third base should the Panda end up elsewhere.”
Well, the Panda has ended up elsewhere, as he signed a five-year, $95 million contract Tuesday with Boston. However, that means the Giants now have more money to throw around elsewhere, so it’s not surprising the team has engaged in discussions (or plans to) with free agents Chase Headley, Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.
Given the Giants’ lack of projectable and upper-level positional talent, especially on the infield, making a strong investment in the 19-year-old Moncada would be a wise move for the franchise.
Odds: 13-1
4. Tampa Bay Rays
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The Tampa Bay Rays made a splash early in the 2014-15 international signing period when they signed 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Adrian Rondon—widely regarded as the premier talent in this year’s July 2 class—for $2.95 million. The large bonus pushed Tampa Bay beyond its bonus pool, meaning the organization is set to incur an overage tax and signing limitations next year.
For Ben Badler of Baseball America, the Rays’ willingness to overspend on Rondon makes them legitimate contenders to land Moncada this offseason:
"But the Rays can’t compete with other teams for star talent on the major league free agent market, and even the next tier is often off limits to them. Moncada represents an opportunity for them to acquire a potential franchise player without having to pay the market rate for an established major league free agent.
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The Rays have a dearth of projectable infielders on the farm, and they’ll have several positions to fill in the near future with Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar set to hit the market after the 2015 and 2016 seasons, respectively (Escobar has a 2017 team option).
Odds: 11-1
3. Atlanta Braves
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Along with the Boston Red Sox, the Atlanta Braves reportedly had a large contingent of personnel on hand earlier this month for Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala, including special assistants Roy Clark and Gordon Blakeley as well as new international scouting director Marc Russo, per Ben Badler of Baseball America.
The Braves’ farm system is thin on positional talent outside of Jose Peraza, who could be ready to take over as the team’s everyday second baseman by the end of the 2015 season. Meanwhile, third baseman Chris Johnson’s three-year, $23.5 million extension will kick in next season and run through 2017 (with a 2018 team option).
But should the Braves shell out big bucks to sign Moncada, then there’s a real chance Johnson won’t spend the next three seasons manning the hot corner. The 30-year-old’s future was already somewhat bleak following a disappointing 2014 campaign in which he batted .263/.292/.361 with 10 home runs and respective strikeout and walk rates of 26.0 percent and 3.8 percent, not to mention the second-worst Weighted Runs Created Plus (82) among all qualified third basemen.
Odds: 11-1
2. Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox made a splash on the international market last July when they signed outfielder Rusney Castillo to a record $72.5 million contract, making him the highest-paid Cuban player in baseball history. Now, the team is reportedly interested in Moncada and had a strong presence at the 19-year-old’s mid-November showcase in Guatemala, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.
Boston’s recent signing of Pablo Sandoval to a five-year pact theoretically hurts the team’s chances of signing Moncada this offseason, as the team’s infield is now set for the years to come with Sandoval at the hot corner, Dustin Pedroia at second base (and Mookie Betts if not Pedroia) and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop.
However, the Red Sox certainly have the money to pursue Moncada should they choose to, and they’ve already blown past their 2014-15 international bonus pool. Therefore, it’s hard to completely rule out Boston signing the 19-year-old infielder.
Odds: 9-1
1. New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees have already made a haul during this year’s July 2 signing period, inking 25 international prospects for an estimated total of $17 million, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Specifically, the Bronx Bombers gave seven players at least a $1 million bonus. That group is highlighted by shortstop Dermis Garcia ($3 million), third baseman Nelson Gomez ($2.25 million) and outfielder Juan DeLeon ($2 million).
The Yankees face maximum penalties for their unprecedented international overspending, which leads some experts, such as Baseball America’s Ben Badler, to believe the organization will continue to shell out big bucks to land Moncada.
“The Yankees have the money to beat anyone’s offer,” writes Badler.
“They’re willing to invest in international talent, whether it’s unprecedented spending on Latin American amateurs or $175 million for Masahiro Tanaka. When you line up all the evidence, if the Yankees truly want Moncada, they’re going to be tough to beat.”
Odds: 5-1
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