NFL Week 13 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

At this time of year, we should be expecting an increase in close games. Even though only five weeks remain in the regular season, most of the NFL's teams are still in contention for a playoff spot. One bad game could have season-ending consequences, and every coach and player across the league knows it.

In Week 12, nine of the 15 contests finished with one-score margins. That should be considered a precursor for what's to come for the remainder of the season. We may as well take the bull by the horns prior to Week 13 and determine which team has the upper hand in games with the tightest spreads.

Bettors have plenty of contests to choose from this week, as bye weeks are finished and the full 16-game slate returns. Before we delve into some in-depth analysis regarding the upcoming week's closest contests in the eyes of Las Vegas, here's a look at every game, the corresponding odds and a pick against the spread for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Chicago at Detroit	DET -7	Lions	Detroit's offense will get some short fields following some Jay Cutler turnovers.
Philadelphia at Dallas	DAL -3	Cowboys	It's difficult to trust a turnover-prone Mark Sanchez against an efficient Tony Romo.
Seattle at San Francisco	Even	Seahawks	See analysis below.
Cleveland at Buffalo	BUF -1	Bills	See analysis below.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	PIT -3	Steelers	The Saints can't win at home, so there's no reason to think they will at Pittsburgh in the cold.
San Diego at Baltimore	BAL -5.5	Ravens	Baltimore is a very good home team, and San Diego isn't too keen on playing on the East Coast.
Carolina at Minnesota	MIN -3	Vikings	The Vikings don't do anything flashy, but their defense should do well against a struggling Cam Newton.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	NYG -2.5	Giants	Their record may not indicate it, but the Giants have some firepower on offense. Jacksonville doesn't.
Washington at Indianapolis	IND -9.5	Colts	Washington is having trouble moving the ball, and that's not a good sign against Andrew Luck.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	CIN -4	Bengals	Cincinnati is beginning to hit its stride, and Tampa Bay is playing like it wants a high draft pick.
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -6	Titans	With Ryan Mallett done for the season, the Titans suddenly have the better quarterback situation.
Oakland at St. Louis	STL -7	Raiders	Oakland may not win this one, but the momentum from its first win should help keep things close.
Arizona at Atlanta	AZ -2.5	Cardinals	It's difficult to see a way around Arizona's defense for a struggling Falcons offense.
New England at Green Bay	GB -3	Packers	This game should be epic. Green Bay gets the upper hand due to its prowess at Lambeau.
Denver at Kansas City	DEN -2	Broncos	The Broncos offense is rolling once again, and the Chiefs are coming off a terrible loss to Oakland.
Miami at NY Jets	MIA -5.5	Dolphins	The Jets are terrible, and Miami is underrated. This one won't be close.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 25.

Analyzing Close Calls of Week 13

Seattle Seahawks (even) at San Francisco 49ers

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

This contest may not just have a wild-card spot on the line anymore. With the Arizona Cardinals struggling after losing Carson Palmer, the team that wins this matchup has a great shot at overtaking Arizona for the NFC West crown.

It's difficult to determine which team has the upper hand here based on previous performances at home and on the road. Seattle is 2-3 on the road this season, and only one of those two wins was by greater than a one-score margin. San Francisco is 3-2 at home in 2014, but all three wins came by a five-point margin or less.

Both of these teams have extremely solid defenses, ranking in the top 10 against the run, pass and points allowed. The team with the more versatile offense will have the advantage in this matchup, and that would be the Seahawks.

Russell Wilson has played phenomenally lately. He's done a nice job taking care of the football, and he's been a very efficient passer, completing at least 60 percent of his passes in eight of his 12 games this season. His ability to run makes him even more dangerous. He's averaging 7.7 yards per carry, scoring four times and eclipsing the 100-yard mark on three occasions.

Earl Thomas noted Wilson was the key to the team's defensive success as well due to his ability to absorb the hits he was taking from the opposing defense, via Britt McHenry of ESPN: 

It's been a different story for Colin Kaepernick. While he hasn't been bad this season, he's only been great in the eyes of head coach Jim Harbaugh. The quarterback hasn't been able to take advantage of some of the most porous NFL secondaries throughout the year, and he hasn't been much of a threat on the ground—he hasn't eclipsed 50 yards rushing since Week 4.

In a game that will feature plenty of defense, Wilson gives his team more offensive versatility and a better chance to put more points on the board.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, 49ers 18

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-1)

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Both of these teams are still well in contention for a playoff spot. The 7-4 Browns may be fourth in the AFC North, but they're just a tie game shy of the first-place Cincinnati Bengals. The 6-5 Bills may not be able to catch the New England Patriots, but they are entrenched in a large battle for a coveted wild-card spot.

Cleveland has been unpredictable away from home this season, but it is coming off a last-second road victory over the Atlanta Falcons. The Bills have been a solid home team, defeating lesser opponents and keeping up with better ones. Despite playing its last "home" game in Detroit, Buffalo still managed to slaughter the New York Jets 38-3.

Looking at Cleveland's efficiency lately, it's difficult to give it the upper hand here. Brian Hoyer hasn't been nearly as efficient as he was earlier in the season. In Week 11, he completed just 20 of his 50 passing attempts against the Houston Texans. In Week 12, his accuracy issues continued, as he threw three interceptions—even with Josh Gordon back in the mix.

Joe Wedra of The Myrtle Beach Herald tweeted Hoyer's updated stats for November:

He doesn't get a favorable matchup against the Bills' fifth-ranked pass defense this week.

We already know Buffalo has a strong defense, but the team's offense really began to take shape in Week 12. Kyle Orton has been better than expected this season, and he's coming off a 230-yard, two-touchdown performance. Meanwhile, Anthony Dixon has replaced the injured C.J. Spiller nicely. He adds a home-run hitting aspect to the offense, recording a 30-yard touchdown scamper Monday night.

Buffalo has a well-balanced attack and should be able to get around Cleveland's defense. The same can't be said for a Browns offense that's been struggling of late against one of the league's best defensive units.

Prediction: Bills 24, Browns 20