Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 13: Smart Matchup Plays, Sleepers and More

Many fantasy football players have one week left to claw their way into the postseason. With the fantasy season expiring, Thanksgiving weekend marks the most important matchup to date.

In leagues carrying out a six-team playoff, the win-or-leave-home (since there's no fantasy bout to monitor, might as well go outside) slates ensue in Week 14. Golly, that's next week already. That flew by fast.

Not to stress anyone out more, but this is not the week to make any lineup mistakes. Nobody wants to leave points on the bench while the starters strip anyone of championship aspirations.  

Bizarre results happen, but studying the numbers will at least enhance an owner's probability of avoiding such blunders. Consider this set of guys to seek out and avoid for Week 13.

Smart Matchup Plays

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (vs. CHI)

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Matthew Stafford has not performed like a starting fantasy quarterback this season. A usual yardage dynamo, he has exceeded 300 yards twice in 11 games, not once throwing more than two touchdowns.

He reached a new nadir on Sunday, going 18-of-46 with 264 yards and an interception against the New England Patriots. Four days later, his Detroit Lions will play their annual Thanksgiving game.

Per the team's official Twitter page, he's eager to get back on the field and redeem himself.

Luckily for him, he has a prime matchup waiting in the Chicago Bears, the No. 29 passing defense. They have relinquished 8.2 yards per attempt, and Stafford airs it out 37.7 times per game.

Also working in his favor, the Bears don't have Darrelle Revis to contain Calvin Johnson, whose absence illuminated how much he fuels Stafford's success. In by far the best matchup since his return, Megatron should go off, with Stafford's fantasy worth hopping aboard for the ride.

Excuse the lame puns, but fantasy gamers who start Stafford will be thankful for a hefty stuffing of points.

Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants (vs. Jacksonville)

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Rashad Jennings has not looked his sharpest in two games back from a knee injury, but owners can't dream of sitting him against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

While Jennings averaged a putrid 2.7 yards per carry against the Dallas Cowboys, he included eight catches for 68 yards. The Jaguars have allowed 62 receptions to opposing backs, which ties for the most with the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers.

The Giants are not typically a pass-heavy team, but they've frequently played from behind this season. New York has only won three games, and its new running back left one of them early before getting a chance to run the clock down. Still, if Jennings sustained his 18-carry-per-game pace throughout a full slate, he'd trail only DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy in touches. 

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the G-Men should finally harvest and sustain a lead, giving Jennings a chance to amass 20-25 carries against a defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry. He has to worry about Andre Williams vulturing touchdowns, but Jennings will rack up the yards this Sunday.

Sleepers

James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders (at St. Louis)

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Sweet salvation comes from the Oakland Raiders, who face their worst losing team since Week 2 fresh off claiming their first win of the season. Lost in the abyss of the painful season, James Jones has consistently gotten looks in Oakland's offense.

Jones, who ranks 28th among wide receivers with 82 targets, has received at least five looks in each of the past 10 games. The actual production hasn't matched his featured role, as the 30-year-old is averaging just 4.9 catches for 49.5 yards per game.

Tough matchups, however, certainly didn't help, and the St. Louis Rams give Jones the best chance to haul in plenty of catches this Sunday. The Rams rank last with a 69.9 opposing completion percentage, which bodes well for Derek Carr finding his veteran wideout at least five or six times.

It's certainly not the highest-upside play, but point-per-reception (PPR) managers or daily gamers shouldn't mind procuring six grabs for 60 yards from a widely available option.

Minnesota Vikings D/ST (vs. Carolina)

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Looking to take a shot in the dark on defense? Although the Minnesota Vikings have seldom delivered any fantasy value, they should surprise some folks in one of their few enticing matchups this season.

Owners have received few chances to roll with the Vikings, as they have faced the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers (twice) this season. Take out those unusable matchups, and they're averaging 11.7 fantasy points per game under ESPN.com's tame standard scoring. 

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That pace sustained over the full year would put them second behind the Philadelphia Eagles, who have benefited from nine touchdowns.

Despite those tough opponents, Minnesota still sports the No. 7 passing defense. Now the underrated unit can shine against the Carolina Panthers, who have scored 14.8 points per game since their Week 6 tie. Cam Newton coughed up eight interceptions during those five losses.

No position commands less loyalty than defense, so don't feel bad about ditching a top-scoring group for Minnesota this weekend.

Busts to Avoid

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)

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When the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks clash on Thursday night, fantasy gamers don't want to mess with any skill players on either side. It's best to ignore this Thursday night game altogether and devote that time to family.

Fringe starting quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are easier enough to bench. None of the wide receivers are must-starts, and there isn't a top tight end on either side. That leaves the running backs. Marshawn Lynch gets the pass as a premier rusher, but Frank Gore isn't provided that same luxury.

The 31-year-old didn't help anyone in Week 11, gaining 36 yards against Washington's No. 9 rushing defense. It's a tough matchup, but Seattle is even tougher at No. 6, allowing only 3.5 yards per rush.

Gore has now faced three top-10 rushing defenses this season, and they have all yielded disastrous results. 

Date	Opp	Rush	YDs	TDs
Sept. 21	ARI	6	10	0
Oct. 19	DEN	9	20	0
Nov. 23	WAS	13	23	0

But hey, maybe he can finagle a short touchdown, right? That's not a safe bet, as rookie Carlos Hyde has scored more times (four) than Gore. Hyde's emergence as a goal-line threat leaves a tiny window of opportunity for Gore to muster any fantasy value on Turkey Day.

Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans)

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At first glance, the New Orleans Saints present a great opportunity for Heath Miller to flourish. Their No. 27 passing defense is ripe for Ben Roethlisberger to pick apart, and he can always rely on his trusty tight end for a completion.

As noted by Steelersdepot.com's Alex Kozora, Miller catches a resounding amount of his targets.

While the Saints are susceptible to the pass, they're not nearly as vulnerable to tight ends, who have collected a combined 37 receptions against them all season. Heading into their Week 12 Monday night clash, they surrendered 4.4 fantasy points per game to the position, per ESPN.com. 

As a 10-year pro who rarely misses time, Miller is a comforting choice amid a constantly changing landscape. Yet despite his long track record, he hasn't functioned as a high-floor option in 2014. He has caught three or fewer passes six times, collecting under 20 yards in three of those games.

Anyone who starts him will be lucky to get five catches, and the Steelers have too many talented wideouts to expect a touchdown directed Miller's way.