8 Best Values Still Available on the 2014-2015 MLB Free Agent Market
Risk versus reward.
My definition of "value" is based on two simple things: what will a player cost your team versus what will the player provide on the field.
Some players may be injury-prone or coming off a bad season, while others haven't been good in a few years, but what all of these players have in common is upside with minimal risk. Think along the lines of Nelson Cruz's one-year, $8 million deal the Orioles signed him to last offseason as opposed to the Shin-Soo Choo seven-year, $130 million deal. Cruz had a checkered past, but the potential value was always there.
It's often the value deals that create championship teams. Just ask the Giants and these two moves that helped secure a couple of World Series heroes. Max Scherzer and Pablo Sandoval may be the cream of the crop in terms of production, but in terms of potential value, the players on this list will dwarf their deals.
Orioles OF Nelson Cruz
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Value Candidate: Proven Power Bat, High-Floor, High Upside, Opportunity Cost
Nelson Cruz is a man with flaws.
- He has a history of using performance-enhancing drugs.
- He's average or worse on defense, according to Baseball-Reference.
- He's old (34).
- He has poor home/road splits.
However, one thing he has done, and done consistently, is hit for power. Cruz led all of baseball last season with 40 home runs and since 2009 he has averaged 37 homers and 107 RBI over the course of 162 games. Considering only 11 players in all of baseball hit 30 or more home runs last season, it's a crime how much his power is getting overlooked.
FanGraphs is projecting Cruz will get a three-year deal worth around $15 million annually. For an AL team, to not jump on that sort of deal would be a mistake. Consider the other options that were available at the start of free agency and what they're rumored to be asking for:
- Hanley Ramirez: four-years, $88 million from Red Sox (signed).
- Melky Cabrera: five-years, $66 million (MLB Trade Rumors prediction)
- Nick Markakis: four-years, $48 million (MLB Trade Rumors prediction)
As I mentioned above, Cruz certainly has his faults, but considering the marketplace and the dwindling power around baseball, he will prove to be a great value this offseason wherever he signs.
Pirates LHP Francisco Liriano
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Value Candidate: Production, High Upside, Opportunity Cost
Francisco Liriano is not as good as Jon Lester. When looking at their stats, he does not come close in either the regular season or the playoffs. However, over the past two seasons, the two pitchers' statistics are very similar:
| 2013-2014 Seasons | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K | |
| Pitcher A | 433 | 31-19 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 397 | |
| Pitcher B | 323.1 | 23-18 | 3.20 | 1.26 | 338 |
Based solely on the innings pitched, we can see that "Pitcher A", and the better pitcher, is Jon Lester and "Pitcher B" is Francisco Liriano. Again, we're not necessarily looking for the best player available in free agency, but rather the best value so we have the resources to make the best 25-man roster.
Considering that Lester will likely command around $100 million more than Liriano (Boston has already offered a six-year, $110-$120 million deal, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, and Liriano is looking for a three- or four-year deal at $12 million-plus annually, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), it's clear where the value deal lies.
Moving on from the Lester comparison, Liriano provides a good balance of risk and reward regardless. There is inherent risk involved in that he has never topped 191.2 innings, but at the same time, he won 23 games over the past two seasons with a 3.20 ERA. When healthy, and after 55 starts over the last two seasons he's been just that, he's proved he can make a $12 million annual commitment a steal.
Rockies LHP Brett Anderson
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Value Candidate: Short-term contract, High Upside
Sticking with the left-handed theme, Brett Anderson is the biggest high-risk, high-reward player on my list.
Anderson will be 27 at the start of next season with a career 3.73 ERA over six seasons. That's middle-of-the-rotation value for a player who can be had on a one-year deal.
The downside is that Anderson can't stay healthy and hasn't been able to in a long time. Over the past four seasons, he's made 32 starts combined, including just eight last year with the Rockies where he missed a large amount of time due to a fractured finger and back surgery. While he was effective, posting a 2.91 ERA, completing just eight starts makes him nearly impossible to rely on.
I'm not predicting he will stay healthy, as the risks are clear. However, in 2010 Anderson was only healthy for half the season but still generated a 2.4 WAR, according to FanGraphs. He's still young, and if he can get over the injury bug for even a half of one season, he has the potential to be a great value signing.
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Giants 1B/OF Michael Morse
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Value Candidate: Short-Term Contract, Proven Power Bat, High Floor, High Upside
Despite a relatively limited market due to his defensive liabilities, Michael Morse could still provide tremendous value.
In 2011, Morse had a breakout season, hitting .303 with 31 home runs and a .550 slugging percentage, finishing 19th in the NL MVP voting. In April and March of this past season, Morse hit 11 home runs with 16 doubles and 38 RBI and was on pace to once again top the 30 home run mark. However, as was the case in 2012 and 2013, Morse was bitten by the injury bug and was limited to five home runs for the rest of the season.
Morse will be 33 years old when the 2015 season begins so while he's no spring chicken, he's not quite Julio Franco either. As I hinted at earlier, he's battled various injuries over the past three seasons, averaging just 107 games played from 2012-2014. Morse has also been a tremendous defensive liability throughout his career, costing the Giants 19 runs in the outfield last year, according to Baseball-Reference.com, so he's likely limited to either first base (where he didn't cost the Giants a run last season in 43 games), or as a DH in the American League.
If you're an AL team, what's wrong with that? Here are his career spits while playing his entire career in pitchers parks (Washington, San Francisco, Seattle):
| Games | AVG | HR | RBI | SLG% | |
| Home | 360 | .285 | 41 | 158 | .464 |
| Road | 344 | .277 | 58 | 175 | .483 |
That .483 slugging percentage would have finished 20th in all of baseball last season if he qualified; his problem was that he played in National League so there was no place for him in the field.
Nelson Cruz signed a one-year, $8 million deal last offseason and led all of baseball in home runs. I don't believe Morse will the league in homers 2015, but if he lands on the right AL team, with the ability to play everyday, would I be surprised if he was among the leaders? No way.
If he gets anything near the two-year, $22 million deal that MLB Trade Rumors predicts, he will provide tremendous value.
Brewers Closer Francisco Rodriguez
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Value Candidate: Short-Term Contract, High-Floor, High Upside, History of Success
When people hear the name Francisco Rodriguez, I'm guessing they think of one of two things.
- Clubhouse cancer (here's why).
- "K-Rod" and harken back to 2002 where he was a flamethrower striking out seemingly everyone he faced, helping the Los Angeles Angels win the World Series.
Something for all of those people, and you as well, to consider is that while he is neither of those pitchers anymore, he remains one of the more dominant relievers in all of baseball.
Last season Rodriguez led all of baseball with 66 games finished, collected 44 saves, had the best WHIP of his career (0.985) and made his first All-Star team since 2009. That's saying something, considering over the course of his 13-year career he has a 2.73 ERA and 348 saves despite being 32 years old.
While he's not the flamethrower he used to be, he's shown the ability to adjust despite his fastball being about four mph slower since his days with the Los Angeles Angels, according to FanGraphs. In addition, his strikeout rate remains high (9.7 per nine innings last season) while he trimmed his walk rate to 2.4 per nine innings.
FanGraphs believes K-Rod will land a one-year deal for about $5 million while David Robertson is expected to get a three-year deal worth about $10 million annually despite being a closer for just one season. Considering a major league reliever is one of the most consistently inconsistent things in all of sports, I'd sign Rodriguez to a deal like that and run with it.
A's OF Jonny Gomes
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Value Candidate: Short-Term Contract, High Floor, Clubhouse Presence
It's pretty simple. For teams that need a platoon outfielder who can play against lefties, Jonny Gomes should be the guy.
Gomes isn't going to blow you away with his ability to play everyday, but that's not why he's on this list. He's here for one reason: to hit left-handed pitching.
Over the course of his career, Gomes has hit .277 with a .376 on-base percentage and .485 slugging percentage versus lefties with 62 home runs in 1,265 at-bats. An average MLB regular gets about 600 at-bats per season, so if he faced a lefty every game, he'd average 30 homers a season.
Gomes signed a two-year, $10 million deal with the Red Sox after the 2012 season, but after a down year where he only hit .234 with six homers, he likely can be had on a short, low-cost one-year deal, and for good measure he'll be a great influence in the clubhouse.
Call him "Jonny Platoon." Call him "Jonny Clubhouse." Call him whatever you want. Just know if your team needs a bat off the bench to hit lefties, there may not be a better value than Gomes.
Cardinals RHP Justin Masterson
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Value Candidate: Short-Term Contract, Bounce-Back Candidate, High Upside, History of Success
Heading into the 2014 season, Justin Masterson had a 4.03 career ERA over 1,013 innings. He was coming off his best season in the majors in 2013, which included career bests in wins (14), ERA (3.45) and strikeouts (195), not to mention his only All-Star appearance.
However, everything that could have gone wrong in 2014 seemingly did for Masterson. He walked more batters per nine innings than ever before, gave up more hits per nine innings than ever before over a full season and his average fastball velocity dropped from 91.6 miles per hour down to 88.9, according to FanGraphs.
Having said all that, there is reason to believe Masterson is prime for a rebound. While his 2014 ERA was a career worst 5.88, his xFIP was a mere 4.08, right in line with his pre-2014 career average. In addition, his HR/FB rate was 4 percent higher than his career average and his BABIP was .339, thirty points higher than his career average, two things that should level out and dramatically improve his performance.
Using that same FanGraphs link above, they project Masterson to have a 3.95 FIP next season, which would have tied for 62nd among all qualified starting pitchers last season. If Masterson comes close to that projection and pitches like a middle-of-the-rotation starter, he will be one of the biggest bargains this offseason, as he's projected to land a one-year deal for around $9 million.
Blue Jays RHP Brandon Morrow
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Value Candidate: Short-Term Contract, Bounce-Back Candidate, High Upside, History of Success
The biggest potential value of the entire bunch: Brandon Morrow.
As with everyone on this list, the risks are there:
- Has only thrown more than 150 innings once.
- As a starter, has only had a sub-4.00 ERA once in five seasons.
- Career ERA of 4.28.
Despite all those things, as recently as 2011 and 2012, he was phenomenal. In 2011, Morrow had 203 strikeouts in just 179.1 innings (his career high) and despite a 4.72 ERA, his xFIP was 3.53, which was 25th best in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. In 2012 he had a career-best 2.96 ERA, which would have been 11th best in all of baseball had he qualified.
He's still young, as he'll be 30 at the start of next season. FanGraphs outlays why he's an "intriguing lottery ticket," and it's hard to disagree. He can be had on a low-cost, one-year deal, possibly a minor league invite. The risk for a MLB team is tiny, while the potential return on investment is gigantic.
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