Cardinals Suddenly Vulnerable in NFC West, with Seahawks and 49ers Closing in

If a player, coach or fan looks at the NFL standings in mid-November and their response is “we’re good, nothing to worry about," they’re telling themselves a filthy lie.

There are exceptions, like the New England Patriots in the AFC East most years. But often, feeling safe and secure with five weeks remaining in the season ends in shattered dreams. And after the events of Sunday, it doesn’t take much dot connecting to find the start of that potential nightmare for the Arizona Cardinals.

Dream smashing is still far from a certainty in the NFC West. The Cardinals hold a two-game lead over the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, which means they haven’t left the driver’s seat of the division.

But it’s as though they’re on a long highway drive and nature is calling. The Cardinals will be wiggling in their seat while trying to stay comfortable and get to the next truck stop, because all the other options are pretty unappealing.

Quickly over a few hours Sunday, a three-game division advantage dwindled to that two-game lead after a loss to the Seahawks and a 49ers win over the Washington Redskins.

The two teams chasing Arizona square off in a Thanksgiving night NFC West slugfest. For at least two days, then, what was once a cozy three-game gap in the division will be cut in half and fall even further to 1.5 games (barring a migraine-inducing tie Thursday).

Let’s zoom in a little closer on this NFC West triple-threat match, examining the state of each team and its remaining schedule.

Arizona Cardinals (9-2)

Last four games: 3-1

Remaining schedule: @ATL, vs. KC, @STL, vs. SEA, @SF

The problem with being at the helm of a mighty vessel like the NFC West on the strength of a suffocating defense is that at least two defensive juggernauts—and sometimes three—are always lurking behind.

The Cardinals can (and will) be matched defensively, which shifts their concern in a different direction: Can they produce enough offensively and still win a field-position battle against their defensive equal? And specifically, against strong pass rushes that will leave backup quarterback Drew Stanton picking grass from his teeth?

The answer to both questions came with a disastrous thud on Sunday.

The Cardinals haven’t exactly been an offensive powerhouse this season.

Sure, being without their regular starting quarterback isn’t helping matters, and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald sitting out Week 12 and possibly longer isn't helpful either (Fitzgerald leads the team in receiving yards with 658). Oh, and the general disappearance of running back Andre Ellington also hasn't been enjoyable, with the Cardinals averaging only 3.1 yards per carry.

Considering all of that, the Cardinals offense being better than horrible feels like an accomplishment. At 21.8 points per game they have a mid-pack offense (18th). That is right where they need to be and where they need to stay.

Averaging the equivalent of three touchdowns each game is plenty of support for a run defense that’s still pancaking opposing running backs (fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed at 84.5 each game), a secondary with 15 interceptions (tied for second) and a pass rush that’s sprung to life (seven sacks Sunday).

But maintaining even that mediocre offense will quickly become difficult, and the resulting struggle could make the Cardinals a wild-card team instead of the division champions with home-field advantage. The root of the challenge? Pocket pressure, and the fiery hell that awaits Stanton.

Stanton was sacked three times in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks. That number alone seems manageable, but it tells only a partial truth. He was also hit four times and hurried nine times, meaning he had to deal with pressure on 43 percent of his dropbacks.

That’s a lot of disrupted timing and rhythm, which is how the Cardinals’ vertical passing game was ruined. Wide receiver Michael Floyd was targeted only twice (catching neither), and Stanton completed only three of his eight attempts that traveled 15-plus yards through the air, according to ESPN.com’s Terry Blount.

The pressure is about to intensify too. Look a little closer at the Cardinals’ remaining schedule, and over their final four games you see pass rushes that are suddenly sizzling…

Team	Sacks	QB hits	Hurries
Kansas City Chiefs	7	10	41
St. Louis Rams	16	14	43
Seattle Seahawks	5	23	40
San Francisco 49ers	10	21	54

With two of those teams the sack number is lower, but go ahead and look past that. Creating chaos is just as important as bringing the quarterback down.

All four of the Cardinals’ final opponents have at least 40 hurries during the stretch in question, and two—the same two chasing them for the division—have topped 20 quarterback hits.

Seattle Seahawks (7-4)

Last four games: 3-1

Remaining schedule: @SF, @PHI, vs. SF, @ARI, vs. STL

The NFC West is backloaded with divisional games this year, which matters far more for the Seahawks and 49ers. With three apiece remaining, they have plenty of hope and opportunities to improve their division record for tie-breaking purposes.

There are also plenty of reasons to expect coming doom, especially for the Seahawks and their gushing offensive line.

Without anything that resembles a consistent deep passing attack, the Seahawks have won games with the physical abuse brought by their running and with Wilson’s magic-footed creativity when he’s removed from the pocket. Over Seattle's last three games he’s averaging 7.8 yards per run attempt, and Wilson is now on pace to finish this season with 936 rushing yards overall.

Much of Wilson’s running is by design, with the quarterback’s skill set ideal for read-option trickery. But a lot of it is done out of necessity too, along with Wilson’s spinning, frantic throws that somehow find a friendly home deep downfield. He’s been effective as an escape artist, but it’s still a dangerous way to live.

The reality of Wilson's existence will get even more perilous with an upcoming schedule that includes two games against a quickly rejuvenated 49ers pass rush after the return of defensive end Aldon Smith. San Francisco hurried New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning 22 times in Week 11 and sacked Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III five times in their win Sunday (two from Smith).

It’s not difficult to see trouble brewing. Over the three games between the 49ers and Seahawks in 2013, Wilson was held to only 35 rushing yards on 16 attempts. That includes a very round number when it mattered most in the playoffs (zero yards on five attempts).

There’s certainly a fear of Wilson and his improvising. But that hasn’t stopped teams from constantly bombarding him with bodies, an approach he'll see even more down the stretch.

But as we saw Sunday, with the Seahawks defense, often just one quarter of effective offense is needed from Wilson and company.

Though there's legitimate concern about the long-term impact of losing defensive tackle Brandon Mebane to injury, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner returned in Week 12. He's a crucial cog for the league's sixth-ranked run defense (allowing 88.5 rushing yards per game) and is also part of the third-ranked defense against the pass.

San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

Last four games: 3-1

Remaining schedule: vs. SEA, @OAK, @SEA, vs. SD, vs. ARI

Much like the division leaders they’re chasing, the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries. Middle linebacker Patrick Willis is gone for the season, and although there’s still hope, fellow linebacker NaVorro Bowman hasn’t participated in a team workout yet.

So despite what should be a swirling black hole up the middle, San Francisco has still held opponents to less than 20 points in six of their 11 games. That includes giving up only 23 total points over the past two weeks.

At the heart of that resilience is the play of linebacker Chris Borland as he summons his inner Tasmanian Devil (71 tackles in only five starts) and the emergence of outside linebacker Aaron Lynch (four sacks over his last five games).

But the similarities don’t end there between the 49ers and Cardinals. A troubling inefficiency has emerged that could be the difference between life and death this season in San Francisco.

It’s simple, really: They can stop the whole scoring points thing, but putting up points of their own isn’t happening. When running back Carlos Hyde scored what would be the game-winning touchdown Sunday, there was great joy because winning is fun.

But it also marked the end of a uniquely pathetic streak…

Countering the strength of their defense with futility, the 49ers offense has topped the 20-point mark only once over their past five games.

That offensive nothingness was glaring in Week 11. By the fourth quarter, Eli Manning had been thoroughly embarrassed, throwing four interceptions. Yet he still had an opportunity to score a potential game-winning touchdown with less than five minutes left.

The Giants were on the 49ers 5-yard line when Manning threw his fifth and final interception. And on that day intercepting five passes was actually needed to secure a win.

Really absorb that for a moment. Then also remind yourself that of the 49ers’ five remaining games, three are against run defenses currently ranked sixth or higher.

In that sense they also have something in common with the Seahawks: A running offense will have to become a passing offense, which likely won’t end well.

The defending champs are the real threat

Seattle poses the greatest threat to Arizona’s grasp on the division lead. There’s little shame in losing at CenturyLink Field with a backup quarterback who didn’t have one of his trusted and primary targets. But now bridging a two-game gap is easily within reach.

The 49ers, meanwhile, can threaten for the NFC West crown too, though the hill before them is a little closer to mountain status. Since they lost to Arizona back in Week 3, the 49ers are truly three games back right now, even if the standings don’t reflect it. That means that before a Week 17 donnybrook between the Cardinals and 49ers, Jim Harbaugh’s often beleaguered team needs to have either already passed their opponents for the division lead or share an identical record.

If the room is spinning, don’t worry. That’s a normal late-November sensation as playoff scenarios bubble. Just know this: The Cardinals have offered an opening, but the Seahawks and 49ers still can’t do much losing if they want to play football in January through either a divisional title or wild-card berth.