NFL Predictions: Week 13 Awards Watch

Time is starting to run out for NFL players to pad those resumes for awards at the end of the season. There are just five weeks left, after all. Time flies when you're having fun.

Which players are contenders for major awards for the 2014 season?

Anything could happen, of course, and voters might be swayed by any number of things—unbelievable catches included. Here is where we stand now, after a few weeks on the awards watch.

Most Valuable Player

Steven Senne/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL MVP Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	1
2	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	2
3	Peyton Manning	QB	Broncos	4
4	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	3
5	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	5

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

This race among thoroughbreds has slowly become a two-horse affair.

Aaron Rodgers was not playing at immortal levels last week, but Green Bay's star quarterback still managed to toss a pair of touchdowns while avoiding interceptions yet again en route to a road win against a tough Minnesota Vikings defense and sole possession of the NFC North.

After stumbling out of the gate, New England's Tom Brady has charged hard into second place, where he firmly sits behind the otherworldly Rodgers. Winning any awards seemed like an impossibility for Brady after his horrendous start, but here we are watching greatness yet again. 

Brady has been on fire since his Week 4 debacle at Arrowhead Stadium, completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 2,207 yards and 22 touchdowns to just four interceptions in a seven-game winning streak. 

The Patriots have scored an eye-popping 39.6 points per game during the streak, including lopsided victories against the playoff-contending Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions.

The two go toe to toe this week in Lambeau Field, perhaps with the MVP award hanging in the balance.

Rodgers talked about his streaking Packers, who opened the season 1-2, taking on Brady and the powerhouse Patriots on his weekly radio spot saying, via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com: 

"

That's kind of what happens at times in this league. You go through some rough points and it kind of reveals the character of the football team and obviously they have a lot of character in that locker room and guys who stuck together, and that's the most important thing when you're facing adversity. And our team had to go through it as well and we stuck together and got on a roll and won seven of eight, so it's a couple of hot teams coming together, and it will be a great matchup.

"

Both quarterbacks should fare well, and Rodgers still has a sizable statistical edge in most categories. Most notably and impressive, he leads the league with 8.6 yards per attempt, a 119.2 passer rating, an 85.82 QBR and a 10-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Should the Patriots knock the Packers back into the pack in the NFC North, however, Brady might pull ahead in the minds of voters.

Coach of the Year

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Coach of the Year Race

Rank	Coach	Team	Last Week
1	Bruce Arians	Cardinals	1
2	Bill Belichick	Patriots	3
3	Mike Pettine	Browns	4
4	Jim Caldwell	Lions	2
5	Chip Kelly	Eagles	4

 

Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

It had been a while since the Arizona Cardinals lost, but the result was unsurprising given the circumstances.

Backup quarterback Drew Stanton went into Seattle to face the ravenous Seahawks, who were fighting for their playoff lives. It was going to be tough to pull out a victory up there. They still lead the NFC West by two games despite having lost key players on both sides of the ball, however. 

Barring an epic collapse, Arians will win Coach of the Year.

Bill Belichick may have been a dark horse for the award a few weeks ago, but the ebony steed has been sprinting full speed toward the top.

The Patriots were left for dead after Week 4, their dynasty declared fallen. Belichick must have smirked whenever he saw such a story. His team is undefeated since then. 

Were it not for the fact that Arians was working a veritable miracle in Arizona this season, Belichick would be the front-runner for Coach of the Year at this point.

Mike Pettine rebounded from a bad loss against the Houston Texans with another last-minute victory, this time against the Atlanta Falcons on the road. Of course, the Browns may have won the game in spite of his curious coaching.

A win is a win, and the Browns are far better than anyone expected this season, which makes Pettine a legitimate contender for the award.

Offensive Player of the Year

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Peyton Manning	QB	Broncos	2
2	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	1
3	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	4
4	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	3
5	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	5

 

Winner: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

This is going to go down to the wire, but Peyton Manning may have taken the lead for good last week.

It was another down week for Andrew Luck, who couldn't muster a strong performance against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Worse, the Indianapolis Colts starter fumbled the ball four times, losing two of them.

Manning, meanwhile, brought his team back from behind to victory against the Miami Dolphins with a sparkling line, bouncing back from his atypical performance against the St. Louis Rams in Week 11 with a four-touchdown performance performance against a good Miami Dolphins defense.

The reigning MVP now has a sizable lead with 34 passing touchdowns, and he is second in passing yardage and QBR on the year. After a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs, Manning's schedule softens considerably. It's not inconceivable he could still challenge his own records if he gets hot over the next five weeks.

Of course, any number of these guys could get hot and win the Offensive Player of the Year award. Knowing Manning's history and propensity to put up big numbers, however, he is a good bet to win at this stage.

Defensive Player of the Year

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	1
2	Justin Houston	OLB	Chiefs	2
3	Ndamukong Suh	DT	Lions	4
4	Luke Kuechly	ILB	Panthers	5
5	Cameron Wake	DE	Dolphins	3

 

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

It was a relatively quiet week for J.J. Watt. There were no touchdowns to be had, no forced fumbles that changed the course of a game. 

He was still his dominant self, though, as evidenced by the four total quarterback pressures and high grade over at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). There is more to the box score with Watt, and nobody has done anything to loosen his grip on this award this season.

That allowed Justin Houston to gain a little ground as he grabbed another sack to get to a league-leading 13 on the season. He is going to have to go on a record-breaking tear in order to stand a chance of overtaking Watt, however.

Anyone else is playing for third place at this point, barring injuries, of course.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

USA TODAY Sports

This play deserves a second look here.

In the Running

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	2
2	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	1
3	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	N/A
4	Jordan Matthews	WR	Eagles	5
5	Zack Martin	OG	Cowboys	N/A

 

Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One play may rule them all.

Odell Beckham Jr. made the catch of the season—or perhaps the decade—when he rose up and snatched the ball out of the air after getting mugged, like he was playing toss with a golf ball. The indelible moment on national television against the Dallas Cowboys thrust the Giants rookie receiver into the awards picture.

Yes, Beckham got a late start and plays for a bad team. Yes, there are several players with better statistics. That incredible play has been etched into the memories of the voters, however. Case in point, Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post has all but crowned Beckham: 

"

Since his debut in Week 5, Beckham is averaging 2.17 yards per route run (20th among all qualified wideouts) and has yet to receive a rating lower than 0.5 from the game-charters at Pro Football Focus. And, as a result, only fellow rookie receiver Mike Evans appears to be standing in the way of the offensive rookie of the year award.

"

Besides, Beckham is gaining ground. 

The rookie is now fifth in receiving yards and touchdowns among his peers this season despite having missed the first quarter of the season due to injury. He also happens to be the highest-rated rookie receiver in the league, according to PFF.

That remarkable reception may not be enough for him to overtake those ahead of him—Tampa Bay's Mike Evans and Carolina's Kelvin Benjamin, who are jockeying for position on the leaderboard. Evans overtook his rival last weekend with yet another touchdown while Benjamin sat idle.

Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith said of his star rookie receiver, via Nate Davis of USA Today: "I have been around the league for a while. I just know that I haven't been with (a rookie) that's been able to do some of the things he's done."

There are so many rookies deserving of consideration this season, it's almost unfair to have just five here.

Arizona receiver John Brown has made four game-winning touchdown receptions this year, but a couple of off weeks have been enough to knock him out of the top five. Cleveland running back Isaiah Crowell is on his way to double-digit touchdowns and has an outside shot at 1,000 yards despite being the third wheel to start the season.

Jarvis Landry has come on strong in recent weeks for the Miami Dolphins, making tough catches and moving up the rookie leaderboard in touchdowns. Sammy Watkins was once considered the favorite to win the award here before falling off in recent weeks.

This year's class is ridiculous.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	1
2	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	3
3	Khalil Mack	OLB	Raiders	4
4	Chris Borland	ILB	49ers	5
5	Anthony Barr	OLB	Vikings	2

 

Winner: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Baltimore Ravens

C.J. Mosley has run down the leader here like he ran down those nine tackles and a sack against the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.

As stated in last week's column, this award is up for grabs to whoever finishes strong. It may be that several rookies do that, so what then?

Unfortunately for the likes of Aaron Donald, who doesn't play a flashy position that piles up statistics, linebackers have a distinct advantage. That's why Mosley is probably going to catch Donald in the end, assuming he keeps up the good work.

Donald continues to dominate in the middle, however. He is turning heads with his all-around play, which is why he maintains his spot as the second-best defensive tackle in the entire league, according to PFF. 

Khalil Mack is another rookie who might be felled by a lack of statistics. He has notched only one sack, which seems awful for a pass-rusher drafted in the top five and playing so many snaps. The quality of his play is evident on film, however, and the advanced metrics support this.

He, too, is rated second-best at his position overall by PFF, and he has garnered some high praise around the league. Merrill Hoge thinks he could be one of the most complete linebackers in NFL history, per ESPN.com's Bill Williamson:

"

"I think he is going to be one of the most complete, dominant linebackers we've ever seen," Hoge said. "He is just a phenomenal football player. I've never seen a linebacker make this type of easy transition to the NFL." 

Mack has been a tremendous run-stuffer. He doesn't have any sacks, but he has often hit the quarterback. What Hoge likes most about Mack is that he is versatile. He said he can stop the run, rush the passer and go in coverage. Hoge said he thinks Mack can play any linebacker position. 

He said all Mack needs to be coached in is in schemes. 

"He is just so complete," Hoge said. "I watched his Buffalo tape and said 'Holy mother, I never seen anything like it.' He is going to be a wrecking crew."

"

That may well be the case, but his argument for Rookie of the Year may fall at the altar of statistics.

Mosley is among the league leaders in tackles, however, and that is a big-time statistic when it comes to naming such winners. A few more strong games in that department, and he may be uncatchable.

NFL Rookie of the Year

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	3
2	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	1
3	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	2
4	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	N/A
5	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	N/A

 

Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It would take a miracle for a defensive rookie to win this award at this point.

Not only does history tell us it will likely be an offensive player, but that side of the ball has been out of this world this season among first-year players.

Aaron Donald and C.J. Mosley are certainly deserving of consideration, but this award is going to go to a receiver, and it's not going to be close. The rookie receiver class is going to be the best in NFL history, and it's only fitting the best among them will be rewarded here.

Comeback Player of the Year

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	1
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	2
3	Rolando McClain	ILB	Cowboys	5
4	Geno Atkins	DT	Bengals	3
5	Julio Jones	WR	Falcons	N/A

 

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

The lead is shrinking for Jeremy Maclin. Is this the week Rob Gronkowski catches him?

Neither of these guys had a particularly great Week 12, but not all weeks can be filled with touchdowns. Were it not for Tim Wright stealing a couple of touchdowns at the goal line against the Detroit Lions, we might be singing a different tune.

For now, Maclin holds a slight lead over Gronkowski by virtue of missing the entire 2013 season—as opposed to Gronkowski, who played a portion of it—and having slightly better statistics. Gronkowski has been vital to New England's offensive resurgence this season, however, and his dominance will be difficult to ignore in the end.

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain continues his impressive comeback from near career death.

He is a huge reason why that defense has not fallen apart in the absence of stud linebacker Sean Lee. He hasn't turned into Ray Lewis, but McClain has been more than solid when healthy. He is second on the team in tackles, and he is the fifth-best inside linebacker in the entire league, per PFF.

All that from a guy who retired twice.

Fantasy Player of the Year

David Banks/Getty Images

In the Running

Fantasy Football Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week	Fantasy Points
1	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	1	207.7
2	Antonio Brown	WR	Steelers	4	171.4
3	Matt Forte	RB	Bears	5	190.0
4	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	3	135.2
5	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Broncos	N/A	153.0

 

Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

DeMarco Murray continues to be a rock for his fantasy owners, even when he's not scoring touchdowns.

Murray hasn't had a complete stinker yet, scoring double-digits in every single game save one, against the tough Arizona Cardinals run defense. 

Hopefully he gets back into the end zone soon. In the meantime, Murray was just about the only top running back worth drafting.

Matt Forte might be the other one, though he has had a couple of down games this season. He did get into the end zone in a big way against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, scoring twice en route to victory for the Chicago Bears and thrusting him back into the conversation for Fantasy Player of the Year.

Emmanuel Sanders has been, perhaps, the biggest value in fantasy football this season. Despite going to the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning, few took early chances on the former Pittsburgh Steeler.

He was the 27th receiver and 71st overall player taken on average this past summer, according to Footballguys (subscription required) average draft position data. He is up to fifth in fantasy scoring at his position, and he is up to fifth here.

 

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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