Week 12 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Another Sunday morning has arrived, and another week full of NFL wagering is soon to commence. Although, before you lock your last-second bets into place, there's plenty to take into consideration.

First of all, there's been one enormous change this week. Due to torrential snow, the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets will be facing off in Detroit on Monday night. Even though the Bills are still considered the home team, playing at a neutral location has shifted the game line.

There's also been some movement due to heavy betting on favorites. The public is really liking the New England Patriots, the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. All three of those teams now must overcome significantly higher point spreads as a result.

So, one burning question remains: Which of Sunday's teams is most likely to help line our pockets with money courtesy of Las Vegas? Let's take a look.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3	Browns	The return of Josh Gordon will help the Browns against a bad Atlanta secondary.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -11	Titans	Mark Sanchez is too turnover prone to lead the Eagles to a blowout win.
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5	Patriots	Detroit's defense is solid, but it will struggle against a diverse Patriots offense,
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1	Bengals	The Bengals got their passing game going in Week 11, and Giovani Bernard returns to action.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -8	Packers	Aaron Rodgers is on a hot streak and he'll light up the Vikings for the second time this year.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -5.5	Bears	See analysis below.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -13.5	Colts	The Colts didn't like getting blown out by the Patriots, and they'll take it out on Jacksonville.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7	Cardinals	Seattle may not have the benefit of its ground game against a stout Arizona defense.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -5	Rams	See analysis below.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9	49ers	The 49ers defense has been playing well lately, and now a struggling RGIII comes to town.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7	Broncos	Denver appears mostly healthy once again. Expect its offense to get back on track.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3.5	Cowboys	Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray are too formidable of opponents for the Giants defense.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 22.

Predicting Tough Calls

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-5.5)

This one isn't a sure thing considering the surprising performances of both of these teams in Week 11. Chicago was able to right the ship against the Minnesota Vikings and end a three-game skid, while Tampa Bay did the same against the Washington Redskins, thwarting a five-game losing streak.

We have an interesting matchup here, as two important members of the Buccaneers are very familiar with the Bears organization and its players. They would be quarterback Josh McCown and head coach Lovie Smith.

Although, while those two know many of Chicago's tendencies, there's still a matter of execution. Tampa Bay has been dreadful in the secondary this season, ranking 30th in the league in passing yards allowed. Traveling to Chicago to face threats such as Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery certainly ins't favorable.

Making matters worse for Tampa Bay is its 22nd-ranked run defense against Matt Forte. The Bears offense moved better in Week 11 due to Forte receiving 26 carries. Expect him to receive that same kind of workload and flourish against the Buccaneers.

This tweet from the Bears' official Twitter account pretty much sums up Forte's value:

While McCown certainly looked impressive against Washington in Week 11, his performance was a little out of character. In fact, his 137.5 passer rating was by far his highest of the season. His second-highest? That would be a mere 81.3 in Week 2 against the St. Louis Rams. The quarterback's only saving grace is rookie Mike Evans, who is putting up some monster numbers of late and looks like the real deal.

With so much talent at wide receiver for both teams against two poor secondaries, we could be in for a shootout. Don't expect Jay Cutler to ruin things with multiple interceptions, either. The Buccaneers have only eight picks as a team this season through 10 games.

This one goes to the home team by a touchdown.

Prediction: Bears 31, Buccaneers 24

St. Louis Rams (+5) at San Diego Chargers

This is a case of two teams trending in opposite directions. The Chargers looked like the real deal early in the season, but due to several key injuries, the team has collapsed. A once-vaunted offense hasn't scored more than 21 points in any of its last four games, going 1-3 in that span.

The Rams are a bit trickier. The team's defense has been playing much better of late, holding opponents to 13 points or fewer in two of its last three games, and the return of quarterback Shaun Hill sparked the offense in a Week 11 victory over the Denver Broncos. Still, there's inconsistency here.

We watched Hill, Kenny Britt and Tre Mason put up their best performances of the season against Denver. Now, we must ask ourselves this: Was that a fluke, or will that become a trend?

According to head coach Jeff Fisher, the latter is more likely:

Using high-percentage passing plays and relying heavily on the run, the Rams ate up over 35 minutes of clock against the Broncos. This helped their defense keep Peyton Manning and Co. out of rhythm. Expect that strategy to work once again in Week 12 against a struggling Philip Rivers.

Over his last four games, Rivers has thrown six touchdown passes and six interceptions, eclipsing the 250-yard mark just once. His yards per pass attempt have also dipped tremendously over that span, remaining under seven yards in each of those contests.

A clock-eating Rams offense and resilient defense will keep Rivers off-kilter, earning a close road victory for St. Louis.

Prediction: Rams 24, Chargers 23