Odds of All 30 MLB Teams' Hottest Rumor Becoming Reality
Rumors rule the MLB offseason.
It's the time of year when general managers are seemingly listening to trade offers for every player on their roster, and when the big-time free agents are connected to all sorts of unexpected teams.
What follows is a rundown of each club's biggest rumor and the odds that it will actually become a reality. So far this offseason, there's been plenty of buzz surrounding impact hitters like Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas.
As for star pitchers, Jon Lester has been drawing interest from clubs around the league. Meanwhile, the market for Max Scherzer has been unexpectedly quiet. However, there are a couple of dark-horse contenders who could just be ready to make a run for the ace.
Houston Astros
1 of 30The Rumor
It looks like Justin Upton's time with the Atlanta Braves has reached its end.
One "executive" told Joel Sherman of the New York Post: "Justin Upton will be moved." Sherman mentions the Houston Astros as one of the clubs that has checked in on the power-hitting left fielder, who clubbed 29 home runs in 2014.
If the Astros were to make such a move, one major risk is that the rebuilding team, which isn't exactly in win-now mode, would only control Upton for one season.
The Odds of It Happening: 9-1
Los Angeles Angels
2 of 30
The Rumor
Los Angeles Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto is in no rush to part with Howie Kendrick.
"We’ll take advantage of opportunities, but we’re not out there actively trying to move Howie,” said Dipoto via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
Ultimately, there could be an opportunity that is simply too good to pass up. A quick look at the free-agent class of second basemen via Cot's Baseball Contracts shows that the market is absolutely devoid of quality players. That lack of free-agent options could result in another team valuing Kendrick more highly than the Angels do.
As DiGiovanna notes, dealing Kendrick would offer Los Angeles an opportunity to bolster the squad's starting rotation. Plus, the team could always opt to use Gordon Beckham at second base.
The Odds of It Happening: 3-1
Oakland Athletics
3 of 30
The Rumor
Back at the beginning of November, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wrote that the Oakland Athletics would "listen" to offers for Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir. The starters are logical trade candidates, as both are set to become free at the end of the 2015 season.
Either pitcher could be dealt to help shore up the team's underwhelming middle infield situation. However, as Rosenthal notes, the market is "flooded" with starters, which means this winter won't be the best time to receive maximum value.
The Odds of It Happening: 1-1
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Seattle Mariners
4 of 30
The Rumor
The top bullet point on the Seattle Mariners' offseason to-do list is to find a right-handed bat. As far as free-agent options are concerned, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports writes that Nelson Cruz is one of the hitters that the AL West club has expressed the most interest in.
Adding Cruz into the fold would provide the M's with some much-needed pop. Last year, only two players on the team surpassed the 20-home run plateau. Cruz went yard 40 times.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
Texas Rangers
5 of 30
The Rumor
The Texas Rangers have a lot of options in the middle of the infield.
GM Jon Daniels told Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio that the presence of Luis Sardinas, Roughned Odor and Jurickson Profar means the team is willing to "listen" to trade offers for shortstop Elvis Andrus.
Whether anyone actually calls is another matter.
The 26-year-old, who has posted sub-.700 OPS's in back-to-back seasons, is about to begin a eight-year, $120 million contract extension. Even though shortstop is one of the weakest positions on the trade and free-agent fronts, that's just too much money for a player whose batting average and OPS have dropped in each of the past two seasons.
The Odds of It Happening: 7-1
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
The Rumor
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Los Angeles Dodgers are "aggressively pursuing" Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez.
With the White Sox already busy adding pieces like Zach Duke and Adam LaRoche this offseason, it's worth wondering if the team would even be willing to subtract a key contributor like Ramirez. Buster Olney of ESPN points out that the rise of top prospect Tim Anderson means that such a move could be viable.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
Cleveland Indians
7 of 30
The Rumor
Nick Swisher's four-year, $56 million deal definitely isn't going to plan.
During last year's injury-riddled campaign, the switch-hitter swung at a clip of .208 while totaling just eight home runs. The Cleveland Indians are still on the hook for $30 million over the next two seasons.
With his production not matching his price tag, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweets that Swisher could be dealt for another player "with an inflated contract." Such a move would be risky, but the Tribe could look for a starting pitcher to help bolster the club's rotation.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
Detroit Tigers
8 of 30
The Rumor
It's difficult to envision a scenario in which Max Scherzer is pitching for the Detroit Tigers in 2015. After all, the right-handed ace rejected a six-year, $144 million contract extension from the club last spring, per Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.
GM Dave Dombrowski told MLB Network Radio that while there is a "chance" that Scherzer could be back, the team isn't "counting on it at this point."
With agent Scott Boras driving the negotiations, the Scherzer contract talks could drag on for a couple of months. The best chance of Scherzer ending up back in Detroit is if Boras overplays his hand and the market for the starter collapses late in the winter.
The Odds of It Happening: 19-1
Kansas City Royals
9 of 30The Rumor
With Billy Butler having already departed via free agency, the Kansas City Royals are in the market for a right-handed bat.
According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, one hitter the team is pursuing is Torii Hunter. The outfielder will turn 40 next July, but he'd likely offer more pop than Butler did. Last year, Hunter went yard 17 times for he Detroit Tigers, while Butler connected on just nine home runs.
Of course, the Royals won't be the only team that is looking to sign Hunter. In fact, Kansas City isn't even the only interested club in the AL Central.
The Odds of It Happening: 11-2
Minnesota Twins
10 of 30
The Rumor
Torii Hunter spent the first 11 seasons of his big league career with the Minnesota Twins, and a return to the AL Central squad could just be in his future. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports that the Twins are one of the clubs that has expressed an interest in signing the five-time All-Star for the 2015 season.
One stumbling block for the Twins, who dropped 92 contests in 2014, is that Hunter is also being pursued by teams that made the playoffs last season. Just how badly Hunter wants to win could be the determining factor in whether he ends up back in Minnesota.
The Odds of It Happening: 9-1
Baltimore Orioles
11 of 30The Rumor
After a monster season with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014, now the question is if Nelson Cruz will be one and done with the AL East champs.
Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun writes that the O's "don't appear willing" to dish out a four-year deal to the designated hitter/outfielder. That's a reasonable position considering that Cruz is 34 years old.
Then again, with such a dearth of power bats on the free-agent market, there's an excellent chance that at least one club will be willing to make such a gamble.
The Odds of It Happening: 3-1
Boston Red Sox
12 of 30
The Rumor
Jon Lester could be on his way back to Fenway Park.
The Boston Red Sox have offered the lefty a six-year deal for between $110 million and $120 million, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. The Red Sox will likely have to up that offer if they want to bring back Lester.
As Cafardo notes, that offer works out to an average of $18.3 million to $20 million per year, while Lester is reportedly in the market for a salary of $23 million to $25 million per season.
There's also the consideration that Lester's former employer isn't the only team in the mix. Cafardo mentions the Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals as other clubs keeping tabs on the starter.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
New York Yankees
13 of 30The Rumor
As Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York explains, the New York Yankees have zero interest in Max Scherzer or any of the other big-name free agents.
At least one NL executive thinks otherwise.
The official told Marchand that the Yankees are "sleeping giants" in the bidding war for the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner. While a one-two punch of Scherzer and Masahiro Tanaka would be highly formidable, right now it doesn't look like the Yankees will be waking up anytime soon.
The Odds of It Happening: 19-1
Tampa Bay Rays
14 of 30The Rumor
Just 19 years old, Yoan Moncada is already generating a ton of buzz this offseason.
According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, the infielder's "dominance of the Cuban junior leagues [is] on par with what Yasiel Puig did at the same age."
As Badler explains, signing Moncada would make a lot of sense for the Tampa Bay Rays.
"...the Rays can’t compete with other teams for star talent on the major league free agent market, and even the next tier is often off limits to them. Moncada represents an opportunity for them to acquire a potential franchise player without having to pay the market rate for an established major league free agent."
It still won't be an easy task for the Rays to outbid some of the big spenders from around the league. Plus, as Badler notes, it remains to be seen just when Moncada will hit the market, as all the necessary paperwork has yet to be completed.
The Odds of It Happening: 9-1
Toronto Blue Jays
15 of 30
The Rumor
After handing out a five-year, $82 million deal to Russell Martin, it's time for the Toronto Blue Jays to focus on re-signing Melky Cabrera.
As Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star reports, the Blue Jays "want" Cabrera to return, but it's unclear just how much a potential deal would cost the team. Cabrera certainly raised his price tag in 2014 by hitting .301, but letting him go would prove to be a costly decision as well.
As Kennedy points out, the Blue Jays are lacking in in-house options to replace the left fielder, and the free-agent market doesn't look much more promising.
The Odds of It Happening: 2-1
Arizona Diamondbacks
16 of 30The Rumor
The Arizona Diamondbacks' starting staff needs help. Last year, the group checked in with the second-worst ERA in the NL. So far, the biggest name that the club has been connected with is Kenta Maeda.
Earlier this month, GM Dave Stewart told MLB Network Radio that the team has "a better opportunity" to land the Japanese right-hander than the aces like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields.
Of course, The D-backs would be just one of many teams interested in the starter. For now, Maeda's current team hasn't even decided if the pitcher will be posted this winter, per The Japan Times.
The Odds of It Happening: 9-1
Colorado Rockies
17 of 30
The Rumor
With the Colorado Rockies needing to revamp the roster following a 96-loss season, Carlos Gonzalez could be a valuable trade chip for the club this winter. That's especially true since the Rockies have plenty of cheaper alternative options at the corner outfield spots.
As Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post writes, the problem is that the left fielder's 2014 season was ruined by a knee injury. Health concerns will make it extremely difficult for the Rockies to get fair value for Gonzalez.
The Odds of It Happening: 9-1
Los Angeles Dodgers
18 of 30The Rumor
Matt Kemp is drawing "serious interest" on the trade market, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers have also discussed shipping out either Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier, and that it's possible that the club could part with two of the veterans.
While dealing Kemp would provide the Dodgers with the best return, it would also put a major dent in the team's lineup—especially in terms of right-handed pop.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Hanley Ramirez is joining the Boston Red Sox. That means that a trade of Kemp would result in the Dodgers losing two of the club's most dangerous right-handed hitters in a single offseason.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
San Diego Padres
19 of 30
The Rumor
The San Diego Padres just couldn't hit in 2014. The squad ranked last in MLB in runs, batting average and OPS.
Bringing in an impact hitter like Yasmany Tomas would immediately help the club in those departments. Along with the Atlanta Braves, the Padres are one of the "frontrunners" to sign the right-handed hitter, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Just what type of deal it will take to sign Tomas remains to be seen. Sanchez reports that Tomas is expected to command a five- to seven-year deal. However, there's also a chance that the 24-year-old could opt for a short-term agreement, which would allow him to hit the free-agent market again in just a few years.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
San Francisco Giants
20 of 30
The Rumor
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Pablo Sandoval has joined the Boston Red Sox on a five-year deal. Now that Sandoval is off to Boston that doesn't mean that the San Francisco Giants next move will be to find a new third baseman.
Heyman explains that the team could spend the money earmarked for Sandoval to sign Yasmany Tomas. Bringing in Tomas would provide the Giants with some much-needed pop, but it would still leave the team with a hole at third base.
The Odds of It Happening: 3-1
Chicago Cubs
21 of 30
The Rumor
Jon Lester has a lot of options.
The Chicago Cubs could be at the top of the list, per Buster Olney of ESPN. Olney tweets that after talking to an array of MLB executives, "many" have predicted that the 30-year-old will be pitching at Wrigley Field in 2015. That's a highly encouraging report for the Cubs. Then again, anything can happen on the MLB free-agent market—especially when it comes to a prominent target like Lester.
The Odds of It Happening: 3-2
Cincinnati Reds
22 of 30
The Rumor
Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon are all set to become free agents at the end of the 2015 season. With 80 percent of the rotation on the verge of free agency, the Cincinnati Reds will have to seriously consider making a big-time trade this winter.
Of those four, there's no question that Cueto would bring back the most impressive return. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports writes, dealing the NL Cy Young Award runner-up also isn't terribly likely. However, Rosenthal does point out that the team's willingness to shop outfielder Jay Bruce suggests that no Red is off limits when it comes to the trade block.
The Odds of It Happening: 19-1
Milwaukee Brewers
23 of 30
The Rumor
The Milwaukee Brewers are the one MLB club that seems to be immune to offseason rumors.
The team added first baseman Adam Lind in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, but otherwise it's been a quiet offseason for the Brewers. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted that it's possible that the team will "wait for late well-priced" free agents this offseason.
One free agent that the club will have to make a decision on is Francisco Rodriguez. The veteran closer locked up 44 saves for the Brewers in 2014, but that success doesn't guarantee he'll be back next season. Rodriguez has likely pitched himself into a multi-year deal, and Milwaukee already owes fellow reliever Jonathan Broxton $9 million in 2015.
The Odds of It Happening: 4-1
Pittsburgh Pirates
24 of 30The Rumor
After the Pittsburgh Pirates grabbed him off the scrap heap, Francisco Liriano has provided the club with a ton of value over the past two seasons.
GM Neal Huntington told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that the team is interested in bringing back the lefty. Of course, doing so won't be cheap. Brink tweets that the starter is looking for a three- to four-year deal for $12 million per season. Re-singing Liriano would be a significant investment, but also a shrewd move for Pittsburgh.
The Odds of It Happening: 3-2
St. Louis Cardinals
25 of 30The Rumor
According to Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio, the St. Louis Cardinals are interested in signing Jon Lester.
Since the NL Central champs have checked in on the lefty, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wonders why the team wouldn't be interested in Max Scherzer, as well. Scherzer is from a suburb just outside of St. Louis. One answer to that question is that while Scherzer is attached to draft-pick compensation, Lester is not.
The Odds of It Happening: 7-1
Atlanta Braves
26 of 30
The Rumor
The Atlanta Braves are one of the teams in on the bidding for Jon Lester, according to David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. As O'Brien notes, geography is on the Braves' side. Lester lives just 30 minutes outside of downtown Atlanta during the offseason.
There could be a problem when it comes to the financial side of the equation. O'Brien speculates that the Braves wouldn't be able to match some of the other offers that Lester will receive and that the lefty would have to settle for a backloaded deal. That's going to be a difficult sell.
The Odds of It Happening: 19-1
Miami Marlins
27 of 30
The Rumor
One of the top priorities for the Miami Marlins this offseason will be to bolster the rotation, and James Shields is one of the pitchers that the team has "reached out to," per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. As Heyman adds, the right-handed starter is expected to be a "little pricey" for the team that just dropped $325 million to sign Giancarlo Stanton to a 13-year deal.
If the Marlins somehow manage to sign Shields, the team would be on its way to building an underrated yet impressive starting staff. The 32-year-old would join a group that also includes Henderson Alvarez and Jose Fernandez once he returns from Tommy John surgery.
The Odds of It Happening: 7-1
New York Mets
28 of 30
The Rumor
The New York Mets have a surplus of starters, but it won't be easy for the team to ship out one of its veteran pitchers. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, there have been "very few" calls for Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee.
It's possible that the market for those three will pick up once all the comparable names on the free-agent market have been signed. Even if the Mets manage to deal away one of those starters, they aren't the kind of chips that will net the team the dynamic shortstop that is needed.
The Odds of It Happening: 3-2
Philadelphia Phillies
29 of 30The Rumor
The Philadelphia Phillies "have cooled on the idea of signing" Yasmany Tomas, according to Paul Hagen of MLB.com.
As Hagen writes, the NL East club think Tomas' suspect defensive skills could limit him to the DH spot. Even if that assessment is correct, the right-handed hitter might just be worth the risk. Tomas simply has unreal power, as you can see in the video above.
The Odds of It Happening: 7-1
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
The Rumor
With a rotation of aces, the Washington Nationals don't appear to be a logical landing spot for Max Scherzer.
As James Wagner of The Washington Post writes, there is one situation in which such a signing could come about. According to Wagner, GM Mike Rizzo is open to listening to trade offers for any of the club's players who are set to become free agents at the end of the 2015 season. Both Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann fall into that category.
As Wagner speculates, the team could trade away one of those right-handers for a major haul and then turn around and sign Scherzer. That's a lot of moving pieces for no guaranteed improvement during the 2015 season.
The Odds of It Happening: 19-1
Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com. All videos courtesy of MLB.com and YouTube.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want tot talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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