Fantasy Football Week 13: Complete Monday Night Preview
Simply put, it was a wild weekend when it comes to this latest NFL season.
Let us backtrack for a moment. On Thanksgiving, we saw our share of scoring in the early games at Detroit and Dallas and a defensive struggle in San Francisco. We also saw all three contests decided by at least 16 points.
As for Sunday, it was an afternoon for throwing the football. Three quarterbacks (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees) threw at least five touchdown passes. By the way, it was also a day for defenses and special teams—believe it or not. There were nine return touchdowns, including a pair of blocked punts for scores by the Minnesota Vikings.
Now the league’s first full slate since Week 3 concludes with an AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. What kind of fantasy impact will come out of this divisional rivalry?
Let’s not waste any more time.
Starting Quarterbacks
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Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill
The third season is proving to be the charm for the emerging quarterback. It also helps when you get a little pass protection.
In 11 games this season, Tannehill has thrown more than twice as many touchdown passes (20) as interceptions (eight). He’s thrown for two or more scores in seven of those 11 outings and has been picked off at least twice in a game just once in 2014.
Compare that to a year ago when the former Texas A&M standout threw 24 touchdown passes, served up 17 interceptions and was sacked a league-high 58 times. Tannehill also ranks second on the team with 276 yards on the ground and has run for one score.
Fantasy Prediction: 24-of-31, 283 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 5 carries, 41 yards, 0 TD
New York Jets: Geno Smith
He’s baaaack…
In eight starts this season, Smith has thrown for seven scores while being picked off 10 times. Add in two lost fumbles and that’s 12 turnovers in those eight games. The second-year pro did make a cameo last week in relief of Michael Vick in the team’s 38-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
As a rookie last season, the Jets committed 29 turnovers, 25 of those by the 2013 second-round pick. That’s 37 turnovers in 24 starts by Smith, who was benched after eight games this season for Vick.
All told, quarterback has been a four-letter word this season for the team that has four letters. Now the coach with four letters in his last name is going back to the signal-caller with same amount of letters in his first name.
Still, we sense a surprise. Miami's inability to stop the Denver running game bodes well for the Jets and Smith, who won't be doing this alone and also benefits from this being the third time he's faced the Dolphins defense.
Fantasy Prediction: 19-of-30, 204 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 8 carries, 51 yards, 0 TD
Running Backs
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Miami Dolphins Starter: Lamar Miller
The third-year pro has enjoyed a solid season, leading the team with 673 yards rushing and five touchdowns. He has also caught 25 passes for 160 yards and a score.
While Miller has run for 100-plus yards just once so far this season, he’s totaled double-digit carries in all but one of his 11 appearances in 2014. And all five of his rushing touchdowns this season have come in the team’s last eight contests.
Fantasy Prediction: 21 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD; 3 receptions, 26 yards, 0 TD
Miami Dolphins Backup: Daniel Thomas
In last week’s 39-36 loss to the Denver Broncos, Thomas ran three times for 19 yards and scored his first touchdown of 2014.
This season, the fourth-year back has played in only eight games, but ranks third on the team with 157 yards rushing and a score. It will be interesting to see if he receives any substantial playing time in this contest. Thomas has yet to total at least 10 carries in any game this season.
Fantasy Prediction: 6 carries, 22 yards, 0 TD; 0 receptions
New York Jets Starter: Chris Ivory
He leads the team with 579 yards rushing on a team-high 130 carries and also leads the Jets with five total touchdowns—all on the ground.
Still, Ivory has totaled a mere 104 yards on the ground in his last three games and hasn’t gotten back in the end zone since scoring those five touchdowns in the team’s first eight games.
The Jets take aim at a Miami defense that entered Week 13 a so-so 11th in the NFL when it comes to defending the run.
Fantasy Prediction: 18 carries, 102 yards, 0 TD; 1 reception, 7 yards, 0 TD
New York Jets Backup: Chris Johnson
There hasn’t been much to talk about when it comes to the former Tennessee Titans three-time Pro Bowler in his first season with the Jets. However, Johnson has been a little more effective as of late.
Johnson has run for 200 yards on 41 carries (4.9 yards per attempt) in his last five games after gaining exactly 200 yards rushing and a touchdown in his first six contests this season. But the latter total came on 51 attempts, a full yard per carry less (3.9 average).
Johnson has also caught 20 passes for 138 yards and one touchdown.
Fantasy Prediction: 9 carries, 43 yards, 0 TD; 2 receptions, 18 yards, 0 TD
Wide Receivers
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Miami Dolphins: Brian Hartline
One season after leading Miami with 76 catches and 1,016 receiving yards, Hartline’s numbers have dropped dramatically this year. The six-year performer ranks fourth on the team with only 31 receptions for 360 yards and just one touchdown, with that lone score coming way back in Week 3.
A year ago, Hartline totaled at least five catches in nine outings. The former Ohio State Buckeyes wideout has managed that feat only three times in 11 contests this season.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 receptions, 67 yards, 0 TD
Miami Dolphins: Mike Wallace
The good news for fantasy football owners is that Wallace has already found the end zone more times this season (seven) than he did a year ago (five).
A year ago, the speedy wide receiver totaled 73 catches for 930 yards. In 2014, Wallace ranks second on the club with 48 catches, good for a team-high 592 yards. The former Pittsburgh Steelers Pro Bowler has caught at least five passes in six games this season, and his seven touchdowns have come in as many games, one of those in last week’s loss to the Denver Broncos.
Fantasy Prediction: 6 receptions, 72 yards, 0 TD
Miami Dolphins: Jarvis Landry
The second-round pick from LSU this past May leads the team in both punt and kickoff returns, rolling up a combined 835 yards in those areas.
But surprise. Landry now leads the team with 49 receptions and is second on the Dolphins with five touchdown grabs. After not catching a pass in Week 1, Landry has totaled at least three receptions in 10 consecutive games and has scored three touchdowns in his last two outings.
Of course, it is also worth noting that Landry’s longest pass play of the season is just 21 yards. His 49 catches have accounted for just 450 yards, a mere 9.2 yards per reception.
Fantasy Prediction: 7 receptions, 88 yards, 0 TD
Miami Dolphins: Rishard Matthews
One season after catching 41 passes, two for touchdowns, Matthews has not seen a lot of throws aimed at him this season. In 11 games in 2014, he’s been targeted only 15 times and pulled down nine catches for 106 yards and two scores.
Keep an eye on the injury report later today in terms of Matthews’ availability. He’s listed as probable for this contest.
Fantasy Prediction: 1 reception, 16 yards, 0 TD
New York Jets: Percy Harvin
Since joining the Jets, the well-traveled wide receiver and return threat has gotten his share of touches. But we are still waiting for the big-play performer to score his first touchdown with the team.
In four games with New York, Harvin has totaled 18 receptions for 176 yards and rushed for 69 yards on 11 attempts.
The six-year performer has also returned 14 kickoffs for 334 yards, a healthy 23.9-yard average. However, still no touchdowns for the former member of the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings when it comes to Rex Ryan’s team.
Fantasy Prediction: 3 receptions, 48 yards, 1 TD
New York Jets: Jeremy Kerley
This season, Kerley ranks third on the team with 31 receptions. But those catches have accounted for only 303 yards—a disappointing 9.8 yards per grab—and only one touchdown.
Last season, Kerley led the Jets with just 43 receptions for 523 yards. The fifth-round pick in 2011 also finished second on the team in touchdown grabs (three).
Keep in mind that New York’s passing attack entered Week 13 as the league’s worst in terms of yards gained.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 27 yards, 0 TD
New York Jets: Eric Decker
Quarterbacks Geno Smith (seven) and Michael Vick (three) have combined for just 10 touchdown passes in 11 games and four of those scores have wound up in the hands of Decker. The one-time Denver Broncos wideout leads the team in receptions (47) and receiving yards (513).
Decker has been targeted a team-high 77 times in his 10 appearances this season. He’s seen at least 10 passes thrown his way in four of those contests.
Fantasy Prediction: 5 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD
New York Jets: Greg Salas
He’s totaled eight receptions for 167 yards this season, including a 51-yard catch. But Salas has not caught a pass in his last three games, and prior to that he was inactive for two straight contests.
Fantasy Prediction: 0 receptions
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Tight Ends
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Miami Dolphins Starter: Dion Sims
With starter Charles Clay listed as doubtful and not expected to go for a second straight week, it is Sims to the rescue…sort of.
A fourth-round draft choice in 2013, he caught six passes for 32 yards and a score in his rookie campaign. This season, he’s more than doubled those totals for the most part with 13 receptions for 158 yards and one touchdown in nine games.
Sims totaled four receptions for 31 yards in last week’s loss at Denver.
Fantasy Prediction: 3 receptions, 14 yards, 0 TD
Miami Dolphins Backup: Harold “Gator” Hoskins
Perhaps it is only fitting that there’s a Gator in Florida.
The rookie free agent from Marshall University has caught two passes for 21 yards this season. But don’t look for him to have an impact here, despite feeling at home in the swamps of New Jersey.
Fantasy Prediction: 0 receptions
New York Jets Starter: Jeff Cumberland
Last season, Cumberland led the team in touchdown receptions. Of course, he scored only four times in 2013, hardly cause for excitement.
There has been even less production this season. The big target is averaging a mere 9.9 yards per grab on 16 catches and has scored just one touchdown in 2014. The emergence of rookie Jace Amaro has limited Cumberland’s opportunities, as well as the team’s erratic quarterback play.
Fantasy Prediction: 2 receptions, 16 yards, 0 TD
New York Jets Backup: Zach Sudfeld
Like quarterback Geno Smith, we are forecasting a surprising performance for Sudfeld. He’s totaled just one catch for 15 yards, and that came way back on a Monday night in Week 3 versus the Chicago Bears.
Hey, just call the young tight end Mr. Prime Time.
Fantasy Prediction: 4 receptions, 22 yards, 0 TD
Defense/Special Teams
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Miami Dolphins Defense/Special Teams
Even the best defensive units can have a rough outing against Peyton Manning and the Broncos in Denver. The Dolphins gave up a season-high 450 total yards in last week’s 39-36 loss in the Mile High City.
This season, led by defensive end Cameron Wake (8.5 sacks), Miami has totaled 31 sacks. Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle’s unit has totaled three or more sacks in seven of their 11 outings this year.
But where the Dolphins have really improved is the penchant for being opportunistic. One year after forcing only 24 turnovers in 16 contests, the Dolphins have already totaled 20 takeaways in 11 games—equally distributed between interceptions (10) and opponent fumble recoveries (10).
Fantasy Prediction: 20 points allowed, 4 sacks, 0 INT, 1 FF
New York Jets Defense/Special Teams
It is almost unfathomable that a Rex Ryan team has forced only seven turnovers in 11 games. And four of those takeaways came in the team’s 20-13 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Still, only three teams in the league have allowed fewer rushing yards per game than the Jets in 2014. Of course, there’s the matter of that undermanned secondary. Ryan’s squad has given up 27 touchdown passes while totaling only three interceptions.
New York has totaled 28 sacks this season but will be without standout defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, who leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
Fantasy Prediction: 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF
Best Sleeper Adds
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Both of these teams have their shortcomings on offense, so the pickings in terms of last-minute additions for both the Dolphins and Jets are a little slim. But just in case you are in a bind:
1. Brandon Gibson, Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins (Owned in 0.0% of ESPN leagues)
Last season, he was limited to seven games and caught 30 passes, three for touchdowns. Gibson has missed two games in 2014 but has caught 18 passes for 165 yards and a score. Keep in mind that both Mike Wallace and Rishard Matthews are on the injury report this week.
2. Zach Sudfeld, Tight End, New York Jets (Owned in 0.0% of ESPN leagues)
One catch for 15 yards this season isn’t exactly something to get excited about. But Rex Ryan’s team will be without Jace Amaro and Jeff Cumberland has just 16 catches this season. In other words…why not? Stranger things have happened and some owners may be in a pinch.
Injury Report
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It’s December, so there are plenty of aches and pains around the league. Here’s how some of the key performers on both the Dolphins and Jets are faring. You can find the complete injury list for the teams on NFL.com.
Miami Dolphins | ||
Player | Status | |
Jamar Taylor | CB | Out |
Charles Clay | TE | Doubtful |
Cortland Finnegan | CB | Doubtful |
Nate Garner | T | Doubtful |
Ja’Wuan James | T | Questionable |
Lamar Miller | RB | Probable |
Mike Wallace | WR | Probable |
Rishard Matthews | WR | Probable |
Daryn Colledge | G | Probable |
Samson Satele | C | Probable |
The Dolphins could have an issue at left tackle if James is unable to go and Nate Garner (listed as doubtful) can’t fill in. Miami has some other injury issues along their offensive unit as both Colledge and Wallace were limited in practice this week.
New York Jets | ||
Player | Status | |
Jace Amaro | TE | Out |
Muhammad Wilkerson | DE | Out |
Chris Ivory | RB | Probable |
Chris Johnson | RB | Probable |
Eric Decker | WR | Probable |
Willie Colon | G | Probable |
Nick Mangold | C | Probable |
Sheldon Richardson | DT | Probable |
David Harris | LB | Probable |
Jaiquawn Jarrett | S | Probable |
The Jets will be without Amaro and perhaps two-thirds of their starting defensive line, as Wilkerson is sidelined and Richardson, while listed as probable, was a limited participant in practice. The team’s trio of tailbacks is listed on the report this week, but all practiced on Saturday.
Sit or Start
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It’s getting to be crunch time in most fantasy leagues. Decisions are getting a little tougher. We’ll do our best here to try to help and ease your angst.
RB Lamar Miller (Dolphins): Entering Week 13, only three teams in the league had given up fewer rushing yards than the Jets. But the team will be without defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson is hurting.
Verdict: Start
TE Dion Sims (Dolphins): With Charles Clay out, Sims gets the nod in his place. But look for Ryan Tannehill to rely on his wideouts far more than his tight end in this matchup.
Verdict: Sit
QB Geno Smith (Jets): The second-year pro saw mop-up duty last week in the team’s 38-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Detroit. It’s not been a banner year for Smith, but don’t be surprised if he rises to the occasion this week.
Verdict: Start
RB Chris Ivory (Jets): The New York running game ranked fifth in the NFL entering the week and Ivory is the team’s leading rusher. Miami’s defense allowed 201 yards on the ground last week at Denver.
Verdict: Start
Some statistical support provided by Pro-Football-Reference, NFL.com and ESPN.com. Depth chart info provided by Ourlads.
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