Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 12: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

The playoffs are approaching in fantasy football, so bye weeks aren't as big of a factor at this juncture of the NFL season. Most fantasy owners with successful teams have their rosters rather crystallized by now, so most should have a full slate of personnel to choose from in Week 12.

With that foundation established as the root logic of decision-making, it boils down to the fundamental element that makes fantasy football so fascinating: the omnipresent start-or-sit dilemma.

Some struggling owners may be debating whether to take a flier on a recent top performer who could turn out to be a flash in the pan, as opposed to a more established, consistent commodity. Others may be in the enviable-but-not position of choosing between multiple, viable options.

That is why it's worth delving a little deeper into the numbers, circumstances and bottom-line calls to make in Week 12.

Quarterback: Russell Wilson over Philip Rivers and Ryan Mallett

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A lack of offensive weaponry, a yards-per-pass-attempt average of less than seven and an overall decline in team performance may scare fantasy owners away from Russell Wilson on the surface.

Those people would be missing out big on the Seattle Seahawks' signal-caller, though. This anecdote from ESPN Stats & Info prior to Seattle's loss to Kansas City last week highlights just how much of a dual threat Wilson is:

Wilson faces an Arizona Cardinals defense in Week 12 that is heavy on blitzing, which makes Wilson all the more apt to scramble around and buy time. Arizona should stuff the box in an effort to stymie Marshawn Lynch, creating opportunities for Wilson to make plays with his feet.

Blitzes are what the Cardinals lean on for pass-rush production, which has been a problem all year and part of the reason their defense ranks 29th against the pass. The game plan will dictate Wilson to air it out often and call his own number on the ground.

If the defending Super Bowl champions are going to make a late playoff push, it's on Wilson to take charge. This prediction that he will have a monster game against the NFC West rival Cardinals operates under that presumptive development transpiring.

DENIS POROY/Associated Press

Just outside the current NFL playoff picture, also in a tough division, are the San Diego Chargers.

One reason why is because star QB Philip Rivers has been fighting through a significant rib injury for the past three to four weeks.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport offered more details from the information he gathered:

As talented and tough as Rivers is, he is in danger of absorbing devastating punishment when the Chargers battle the St. Louis Rams in Week 12. The likes of Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald present a handful for San Diego to handle up front, leaving Rivers susceptible to taking repeated blows.

The return of Ryan Mathews should see a Chargers game plan that revolves around the rushing attack, limiting Rivers' fantasy upside and relegating him to a QB2-caliber option for now.

Ryan Mallett's starting debut in Houston's Week 11 win at Cleveland bodes well for his future, though not immediately. Despite a cannon for an arm and targets like Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, expect Mallett to take a step back.

Pro Football Focus notes how Mallett got the ball out fast to begin, something that is bound to change:

"

Ryan Mallett's average time per pass attempt was 2.06 seconds vs CLE. Off the charts fast, lowest in the league this week.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 18, 2014"

The Browns were banged up on the front seven and couldn't pressure Mallett this last weekend. Cincinnati looks like a good matchup on paper thanks to its 20th-ranked pass defense. Remember that the Bengals just held Drew Brees to just 255 yards on 41 attempts in a win in New Orleans, though.

Look for Houston to pound away on the ground, which has been its source of primary success on offense. While Mallett should be proficient, he's bound to make a couple mistakes under increased pressure from what he previously faced.

It's easy to be tantalized by Mallett's upside, but let him prove himself a little more before turning to him in a fantasy QB pinch, especially amid these high, late-season stakes.

Running Back: Eddie Lacy over Lamar Miller and Alfred Morris

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This RB conundrum features three talented ball-carriers all capable of producing like RB1s. Green Bay Packers star Eddie Lacy was last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year, but didn't live up to that hype earlier in 2014.

Part of that was attributable to Aaron Rodgers' brilliance under center, but Lacy owners who were patient were rewarded after the rocky start. The young stud has racked up double-digit points in ESPN.com standard leagues in all but one game from Week 4 onward.

Rodgers discussed what makes Lacy so formidable, via the Packers' official Twitter account:

Green Bay's offense is firing on all cylinders after back-to-back 50-point performances. Don't be surprised when the Pack light up the scoreboard again this Sunday while facing the Minnesota Vikings' 21st-ranked rush defense.

The Vikings are tied for third in the league with 30 sacks, and pass protection tends to be an issue for Green Bay at times. Thus, expect a heavy dose of Lacy and yet another big outing.

As for the Miami Dolphins, their success has quietly been driven by Lamar Miller and a running game that's sixth in the NFL entering Week 12.

But this tweet from ESPN's Matthew Berry is reason for concern:

Also of note is that Miami, fighting for a playoff spot, is traveling to Denver to face a Broncos team that was just embarrassed in St. Louis in scoring a season-low seven points.

Denver has the league's second-ranked run defense, and is first in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Broncos will be forcing young signal-caller Ryan Tannehill to win the game by throwing a lot. That leaves Miller with an uphill battle to produce big fantasy numbers.

And last, Washington seems to be in disarray. Robert Griffin III is supposed to be the leader, yet he seems to be distancing himself from his teammates. Skip Bayless of ESPN explained the situation well:

That's bad news for Alfred Morris, who's had three straight double-digit games, albeit against non-elite opponents.

The San Francisco 49ers are still stuffing the run with excellent physicality. Rookie Chris Borland and Michael Wilhoite have filled in for injured Pro Bowlers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at inside linebacker beyond expectations.

Those counting on Morris to be an RB1 should expect only RB2 production at most.

Wide Receiver: Josh Gordon over Mike Evans and Michael Floyd

Cleveland Browns fans rejoice, because your team is 6-4 and is getting by far its most lethal weapon back in Josh Gordon for Week 12's awesome matchup against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome.

It's been a while since Gordon was on the gridiron, but bear in mind that this is the same man who played as a rookie in 2012 without a full training camp. He still managed 805 yards, and then led the NFL in receiving last year despite playing just 14 games.

Tony Grossi of ESPN Cleveland logged a quote about Gordon from NFL veteran Nate Burleson, who spent time with the Browns prior to the start of the regular season:

Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has been nothing short of genius working with a limited, mostly diminutive wide receiver corps, in addition to an inexperienced QB in Brian Hoyer.

CBS Cleveland's Daryl Ruiter highlights how Shanahan has helped the Browns manufacture explosive plays to move the chains:

Bleacher Report expert Matt Bowen explains how Gordon can open things up even more for Cleveland deep:

In the two games Hoyer completed with Gordon in 2013, he targeted the All-Pro pass-catcher a whopping 28 times, connecting on 14 passes. There is an innate chemistry there, and Hoyer won't have to rely as much on shorter wideouts such as Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins, both of whom arrived in Cleveland this year.

That should improve Hoyer's accuracy, and his accumulated experience from this season should boost his confidence to give Gordon a chance to make plays. The Falcons have the last-ranked pass defense in the NFL, so expect big things from Gordon despite his lengthy hiatus.

Some owners may be tempted to play it a little safer by going with rookie Tampa Bay Buccaneer Mike Evans, who had 209 yards receiving last week. NFL.com's Gil Brandt highlights how Evans has proved himself in recent games:

Although Vincent Jackson hasn't been as effective this year, he still looms as a legitimate option for QB Josh McCown to target often. The opposing Chicago Bears defense will key in more on Evans after his breakout performance in Week 11's win over Washington.

Also bear in mind that McCown, who had his best game of the year in throwing for 288 yards last Sunday, is facing the team he left in free agency this past offseason. Chicago will have a strong idea about his tendencies, including his penchant for targeting Evans.

The Cardinals got two first-quarter touchdowns out of Michael Floyd in Week 11 to help spur a victory over Detroit. However, with Larry Fitzgerald "iffy" for Sunday's road trip to face the Seattle Seahawks' "Legion of Boom" secondary, according to The Associated Press, be wary of Floyd with Drew Stanton under center.

Seattle is coming off a tough road loss to Kansas City and have all the makings of a big bounce-back performance in front of its home crowd. It's hard to envision Arizona improving to 10-1 in such a hostile environment, especially with a banged-up Pro Bowl receiver in Fitzgerald and a QB in Stanton who is simply limited in terms of playmaking ability.