Top 2014-15 MLB Free Agents Who Do and Don't Deserve the Hype
For baseball fans, one of the only things to do this time of year is talk about free agents. Especially the hyped free agents, who we talk about again and again...and again.
Question is: Which ones are actually, you know, worthy of the hype?
That's the question we're asking today, anyway. We're going to go through a list of 15 free agents who can be fairly considered to be "hyped" based on their names, track records and/or contract projections and determine if they're actually deserving of the hype.
And to achieve some semblance of a hype spectrum, so to speak, our 15 free agents are ranked in the order in which they appear on MLB Trade Rumors' list of the top 50 free agents on the market.
Take it away whenever you're ready.
15. Nori Aoki, RF
1 of 15
After being something of a well-kept secret in 2012 and 2013, Nori Aoki is less of a well-kept secret after starring on a Kansas City Royals team that made it to Game 7 of the World Series in 2014.
And when you look at him, what stands out is that the guy can hit.
Aoki has batted no worse than .285 in any of his three major league seasons, and he has posted an OBP no worse than .349. The nation also got a look at his defensive ability in October, as he made two huge catches in Game 2 of the American League Division Series.
But there are several drawbacks with Aoki. One is that his hitting comes with declining power. His stolen-base habit is slipping as well, and his occasionally excellent defense is occasionally problematic due to zig-zaggy route-running.
Aoki is also going to be 33 in 2015. So for a guy who, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, is seeking a three-year contract, he offers more question marks than exclamation marks.
Verdict: Overhyped
14. Torii Hunter, RF
2 of 15
Heck, you know Torii Hunter.
He's the guy who was a great center fielder for many years with the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels and who is now a right fielder with a good bat. And of course, he comes with a reputation of being a great guy to have around in the clubhouse.
But here's the real deal with Hunter: These days, he's essentially a replacement-level player.
Hunter may have hit a solid .286 with 17 home runs for the Detroit Tigers in 2014, but his increasingly aggressive approach limited his OBP to just .319. Also, his 39-year-old legs just don't work like they used to. He's become a station-to-station baserunner and a statue in the outfield.
Add it all up, and Hunter was barely worth more than zero wins above replacement in 2014, whether you consult FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference.com. His current ability is a lot different from his reputation.
Verdict: Overhyped
13. Andrew Miller, RP
3 of 15
Before 2014, Andrew Miller was best known as a failed prospect. After 2014, he's now known as a true shutdown reliever, thanks mainly to a 2.02 ERA and 103 strikeouts in only 62.1 innings.
After a performance like that, it's no wonder Miller's agent has high hopes for his market.
"I think Andrew's evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he's a closer-in-waiting—and maybe the time for waiting is over," Mark Rodgers told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Does one great year make a guy closer material? In Miller's case, the answer is yes.
Miller has a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider that, according to Brooks Baseball, drew whiffs on over half the swings taken at it. He also showed off good command in 2014, with just a 2.5 BB/9 and, maybe most importantly, didn't have a platoon split.
So don't be shocked when Miller signs for "proven closer" money. He may not be a proven closer yet, but he absolutely has the goods to become one.
Verdict: Worth the hype
.png?w=256)
12. Chase Headley, 3B
4 of 15
The one time Chase Headley had everyone's attention was in 2012, when he hit 31 homers and led the National League with 115 RBI.
Over the last two seasons, however, Headley has made it clear that he's not actually that good. He's hit a total of 26 home runs and racked up a modest .725 OPS. If it seems like he's on the low end of the hype spectrum this winter, this is probably why.
But truth be told, Headley really hasn't been that bad over the last two seasons. He's continued to play excellent defense at third base, and there's one very solid measure that says his hitting has been pretty close to being on Pablo Sandoval's level.
It's true that Headley's older than Sandoval by a couple of years. But knowing that he's arguably just as good as Sandoval, he deserves more respect than he's getting.
Verdict: Underhyped
11. Francisco Liriano, SP
5 of 15
Now, this one's tricky. Francisco Liriano is a big-name free agent in spirit, but he's also a player who most everyone can agree is an enigma.
Everyone knows Liriano can be really good, as evidenced by the 3.02 ERA he had in 2013 and the 2.20 ERA he had in the second half of 2014. But everyone also knows that he's prone to injury and wildness, as he's never pitched 200 innings and owns a career 3.9 BB/9.
And yet, it's hard to say Liriano doesn't deserve a place among the winter's top free agents. Question marks aside, a guy who's only 31 and who owns an excellent sinker and an elite changeup and slider is worthy of being considered a top-of-the-rotation talent.
Plus, it's not like Liriano is busy overselling himself. According to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, he's only looking for a three- or four-year deal at around $12 million per year. Relative to what pitchers are getting paid these days, that's not bad, even if you factor in the lost draft pick.
Verdict: Worth the hype
10. David Robertson, RP
6 of 15
David Robertson went into 2014 with the tall task of filling Mariano Rivera's shoes. He did an admirable job, saving 39 games in 63 appearances.
And now he means to capitalize in a big way. As Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reported, the 29-year-old right-hander is looking for "Papelbon money" in free agency—or $50-odd million over four years.
That's a lot of money for a mere relief pitcher, especially one who was far from perfect in his one and only season as a full-time closer. Robertson had a modest 3.08 ERA, and he earned that with a higher-than-average walk rate and by allowing seven home runs in 64.1 innings.
Robertson is regarded in a few circles as the top reliever on the market, and his contract demands signal he clearly thinks the same thing. Truth is, he's good, but not that good.
Verdict: Overhyped
9. Ervin Santana, SP
7 of 15
It doesn't seem like Ervin Santana's name is attracting as much attention this winter as it did last winter, and there are good reasons for that.
One is that his presence is dwarfed by those of Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields. Another is that he's not looking for $100 million this time around. Another still is that his ERA rose from 3.24 in 2013 to 3.95 in 2014.
However, Santana is actually a better pitcher now than he was a year ago. He upped his strikeout rate quite a bit in 2014, and it wasn't just because he moved to the National League. Brooks Baseball can show that he used his changeup more and watched it turn into a solid whiff pitch.
That makes Santana a 31-year-old with durability, command and two good swing-and-miss pitches (the other being his slider). That's a pitcher worthy of top-of-the-rotation hype.
Verdict: Underhyped
8. Yasmany Tomas, OF
8 of 15
In September, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe reported that Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas could command $100 million on the open market. Or, $32 million more than Jose Abreu got last winter.
Whether Tomas is worthy of such a sum is as good a question as any. All we have are the scouting reports, and they generally agree that he offers one very real skill and then a load of question marks.
Ben Badler of Baseball America covered all the bases in June, writing that the righty-swinging Tomas has "70 raw power," but also below-average speed, questionable defensive potential and a swing with holes in it. With his power being the only sure thing, it's possible he'll never be more than a one-trick pony.
As such, maybe $100 million sounds like overkill. But when you consider that right-handed home run hitters are rapidly disappearing and that Tomas is only 24, it makes sense. There's a lot of risk, but the potential reward is easily worth $100 million.
Verdict: Worth the hype
7. Nelson Cruz, OF/DH
9 of 15
After what he did in 2014, there's considerably more interest in Nelson Cruz now than there was a year ago.
The general consensus on Cruz last winter was that he wasn't worthy of a big contract, and the market clearly agreed. He had to settle for an $8 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles, and he proceeded to make them look like geniuses by mashing 40 homers with an .859 OPS.
After a performance like that, it would be nuts to downplay Cruz again, right?
Nope. Not at all. His 2014 production doesn't look as good once you notice he had just a .759 OPS and 20 homers in his final 106 games, meaning he was really his true self for a big chunk of the year. Also, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs nailed it when he wrote the following:
"Signing a 34 year old in the hopes that they can repeat a career year is generally a bad bet, and if Cruz returns to something closer to prior form, he’s an average player who is about to get paid like an impact hitter.
"
In so many words: Cruz's 2014 season shouldn't change your perception of him too much.
Verdict: Overhyped
6. Melky Cabrera, LF
10 of 15
After hitting over .300 for the third time in four years in 2014, Melky Cabrera presumably has it in mind to find a big upgrade over the two-year, $16 million deal that brought him to Toronto two winters ago.
Of course, there are arguments against the idea.
One is that Cabrera is essentially a bat-only player, as he doesn't offer speed on the basepaths and isn't much of a left fielder. He also still has the stigma of being suspended for 50 games for performance-enhancing drugs in 2012 before suffering through a brutally awful 2013 season.
But while these are valid gripes, Cabrera's bat is good enough to be deemed worthy of the hype.
He's been a well-above-average hitter in three out of four years, and not by accident. He belongs in a small group of hitters who can combine consistent contact with hard contact on a regular basis. He profiles as a good No. 2 hitter, and those are valuable properties.
Verdict: Worth the hype
5. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
11 of 15
The last time we saw Pablo Sandoval, he looked like a superstar. Across 17 postseason games, he hit .366 to help the San Francisco Giants win their third World Series in five years.
Now he expects to be paid like a superstar. We know, via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, that Sandoval wants a six-year deal, and his price tag is generally put around $100 million.
Granted, that's not an outrageous sum for a star-level player anymore. But the thing about Sandoval is that he doesn't quite qualify as a star-level player.
We mentioned earlier how Sandoval's hitting has only been a shade better than Chase Headley's over the last two seasons, and he's not quite in Headley's class on defense. And while he's young for a free agent at 28, that he comes with conditioning question marks takes away from that a bit.
Sandoval is a good player. But a $100 million player? Nah.
Verdict: Overhyped
4. Hanley Ramirez, SS
12 of 15
Some of Hanley Ramirez's numbers are eye-popping. He's a career .300 hitter with a 162-game average of 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases, and he hit .345 with an OPS over 1.000 as recently as 2013.
These are the reasons why Ramirez is widely considered to be the best impact bat on the market. And even if you downplay what he's been like at the best of times, it is pretty impressive that he had something of an off year in 2014 and still hit .283 with an .817 OPS.
And yet whether Ramirez's bat is worth an investment that could be as much as $100 million manages to be a good debate anyway.
Ramirez's speed isn't what it once was, for one. He's also not a viable defensive shortstop, and the one time he played third base regularly was a disaster. And with his age-31 season due up, he's not about to get any less injury-prone than he has been in recent seasons.
The best way to sum it up is like this: Ramirez's track record may be worthy of an investment, but he comes with as much bust potential as any free agent out there.
Verdict: Overhyped
3. James Shields, SP
13 of 15
Say what you will about James Shields' inability to live up to his "Big Game James" nickname, but his track record over the last four seasons is definitely that of an ace pitcher.
Between 2011 and 2014, Shields authored a 3.17 ERA and 3.51 K/BB ratio over a staggering 932.2 innings. His track record of a workhorse extends even further, as he's topped 200 innings every year since 2007.
As such, the general consensus that Shields is a cheaper alternative to Jon Lester and Max Scherzer might make him sound like a bargain.
...At least until you remember that his contract would be buying his future, not his past. To that end, Shields' declining strikeout rate is a concern. So is how he's a soon-to-be 33-year-old with a lot of miles on his arm and how it's somewhat alarming that he's been pitching at elevated velocities since 2012.
Shields will indeed be a cheap alternative to Lester and Scherzer. But betting on him aging well is risky, to say the least.
Verdict: Overhyped
2. Jon Lester, SP
14 of 15
Jon Lester picked a heck of a time to have a career year, as he posted a personal best 2.46 ERA and 4.58 K/BB ratio in his walk year in 2014.
That and Lester's respectable 3.58 career ERA and his string of seven straight seasons with at least 190 innings are reasons he's due to be paid the big bucks. But at the same time, there is the question of how much worry there should be over how he seemed to lose it in 2012 and the early portion of 2013.
Not much.
Lester's been pitching brilliantly since the 2013 All-Star break, a span of over 50 starts. There's also a lot to like about how he showed in 2014 that he doesn't need his best velocity to be dominant. He got by with command, movement and sequencing, three things that can age just fine.
Lester's going to make a lot of money. Presumably a lot more than the $110 million-$120 million Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston says the Boston Red Sox have already offered him. And given where he is these days, rightfully so.
Verdict: Worth the hype
1. Max Scherzer, SP
15 of 15
No free agent this winter is going to make a killing quite like Max Scherzer will. The $144 million extension offer he reportedly rejected will likely be a mere starting point in negotiations, with his final price possibly coming close to $200 million.
That's the kind of money reserved for elite starters. Fortunately, Scherzer does belong in that discussion.
That Scherzer has a 3.02 ERA across 434.2 innings over the last two seasons is good enough. Even better is his 4.13 K/BB ratio, which is the product of his lethal four-pitch mix and much-improved command.
Going forward, it is a concern that Scherzer's velocity is already starting to slip. Because of that, he may only have a couple years of ace-level pitching left in him. But even if that's the case, it's hardly out of the question that he could get by on command and movement well enough to be a mid-rotation guy once his velocity goes.
Though it will take a lot of money to sign Scherzer, he should be worth a lot of money in the end.
Verdict: Worth the hype
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
.png?w=480)
