Scott Miller's Starting 9: Marlins' Window with Stanton Is Sooner, Not Later
1. Giancarlo Stanton: Not If, But When
When Giancarlo Stanton opts out of his record $325 million Miami Marlins deal six years from now, and the surprise will be if he doesn't, here are the words to remember:
"I like [Miami] better than L.A., where I grew up," Stanton said at Wednesday's sunny and optimistic Sunshine State news conference, per the Miami Herald's Manny Navarro. "I'm very comfortable here. I enjoy all aspects of it."
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Many in the industry still expect the Sherman Oaks, California, native eventually to turn toward the Los Angeles Dodgers when he has a chance. Though 13 years sounds like a lifetime (or two), the thinking is this: No way Stanton lasts that long on South Beach, mostly because of the way the contract is structured.
It is heavily backloaded. Stanton will make only an average of $10 million annually over the first three years, starting with a relatively paltry $6.5 million in 2015. It isn't until 2018 when the weighty dollars kick in, $25 million or more a year.
Given all of the young talent the Marlins, to their credit, have quickly collected following the disaster of 2012, their window to win is early in this contract, not later.
"I really think they have a great chance in 2016," one National League talent evaluator told Bleacher Report. "Jose Fernandez (who had Tommy John surgery last summer) will be back with half a year under his belt. [Plus] Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Jarred Cosart.
"If they get another bat to protect Stanton next year, they could be a playoff team."
Even after Fernandez underwent reconstructive surgery last May, the Marlins still hung around the fringes of the National League wild-card race through late September. Fernandez is on track to return sometime around midseason in 2015.
No question, the Marlins are ready to shift into the fast lane and make some potential playoff noise in '15 and, if they play this right, enter '16 as serious contenders. Stanton is only scheduled to make $9 million in '16, so the Marlins should be able to construct a solid core around him.
The problem comes in '18, when he's due $25 million, and '19 and '20, when he's due $26 million in each year, and beyond. History shows that teams that allocate 20 to 25 percent or more of their payroll to one player don't win.
Of the 15 World Series winners this century, there are just two exceptions: Pudge Rodriguez of the (drumroll) 2003 Marlins, who took up $10 million of a $41.8 million payroll, or 21.25 percent. And Randy Johnson of the 2001 Diamondbacks, who ate up 22.89 percent of that team's payroll—$13.35 million of $85 million.
For Stanton to take up "only" 22 percent of the Marlins payroll in 2018 when he's earning $25 million, the club payroll would have to balloon up to a record $116 million (the previous high was $102 million in 2012).
Will the Marlins be both willing and able to do that?
Stanton, publicly, is steadfast in his belief that they will.
"[Winning] is what I wanted to talk about in our meeting," he said. "I didn't want to talk about dollars. I wanted to talk about what we're going to do moving forward, how we're going to change the makeup in Miami.
"Everyone wants to talk about the record-breaking deal in Miami, and all that. I want to have records on the field and do things on the field. That's what making a push in Miami is about for me."
One thing the Marlins have aside from young talent is stability. Manager Mike Redmond and the coaching staff are on three-year contracts, the front-office group has been together for several years, and owner Jeffrey Loria appears to like all of them. For now.
The Marlins still have one significant untapped revenue stream: the naming rights to Marlins Park. Their local television deal is one of the least lucrative in the game—it pays them roughly $14 million a year, and the Marlins will be looking to bulk that up. And under MLB's new national television deal, each club, from 2014 through 2021, essentially get a $25 million raise, annually.
So, is Stanton sustainable in South Florida?
And is South Florida sustainable for Stanton?
"We've got to add pieces around me," he said. "[The contract] is built that way in order to do so financially. That's what we've got to trust. We've got to trust that we're all in it to win it. That's why it's structured that way...
"The tough part of my decision was the uncertainty of the past. But you can't always think about the past. You've got to look at what's with you and what's ahead of you. And in my eyes, it looks good."
Come opt-out time six years from now, Stanton will be getting his vision checked. Because it won't look nearly as good then. These things rarely do.
2. Percentages And Payrolls
So you want to win a World Series. What is a feasible equation for the highest-paid player compared to everyone else on the team?
Why, thanks for asking! Because I just looked it up, with the help of the fabulous Baseball Prospectus/Cot's Contracts compensation page. Since the turn of the century, here is each World Series winner's highest-paid player, along with the percentage of team payroll he earned:
2014: Giants, Matt Cain, 14.05% ($20.8 million, team payroll: $148 million).
2013: Red Sox, John Lackey, 10.59% ($15.95 million, $150.6 million).
2012: Giants, Barry Zito, 14.4% ($19 million, $131.9 million).
2011: Cardinals, Matt Holliday, 15.48% ($17 million, $109.7 million).
2010: Giants, Barry Zito, 19.07% ($18.5 million, $97 million).
2009: Yankees, Alex Rodriguez, 16.11% ($33 million, $203 million).
2008: Phillies, Pat Burrell, 15.39% ($14.25 million, $100.5 million).
2007: Red Sox, Manny Ramirez, 13.33% ($20 million, $147.5 million).
2006: Cardinals, Albert Pujols, 15.02% ($14 million, $89 million).
2005: White Sox, Paul Konerko, 12.93% ($8.75 million, $75.6 million).
2004: Red Sox, Manny Ramirez, 15.85% ($22.5 million, $128.5 million).
2003: Marlins, Pudge Rodriguez, 21.25% ($10 million, $47.8 million).
2002: Angels, Tim Salmon, 14.61% ($9.65 million, $61.4 million).
2001: Diamondbacks, Randy Johnson, 22.89% ($13.35 million, $85 million).
2000: Yankees, Bernie Williams, 14.85% ($12.35 million, $92.3 million).
3. Heavy-Hearted Cardinals Make Smart Move
Life is what happens when you are making other plans, the bumper stickers read. Slap one of them on the back of the trade that brought Jason Heyward to St. Louis this week.
The Cardinals had been planning for the past few years, of course, for Oscar Taveras to become their right fielder. That was the point of July's Allen Craig trade—to clear room. Then Taveras tragically was killed in an auto accident on the day of Game 5 of the World Series.
On a human level, it was unspeakably horrific.
On a baseball level, the calendar doesn't stop.
So the Cards had to quickly regroup and figure out a new outfield future, and in Heyward, they sure could have done worse. Sure, he's a free agent after the 2015 season, but most players who play in St. Louis love it and don't leave. See Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and beyond.
Home-grown or imported, productive players who wish to stay usually find a way.
"These decisions that you come to are never easy—especially for an organization that, for the last several years, we've always talked about development," general manager John Mozeliak told reporters, per MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. "We've talked about controlling our own players and having that cost certainty moving forward. We did feel after the events of this offseason that we had to do something different, that we had to look at a way to add an impact player to our club."
In Heyward, gifted defensively and dangerous offensively, they've done that. Heyward's power numbers have mysteriously declined over the past couple of seasons, and left-handers regularly take his lunch money (.169 batting average against lefties in 2014, .221 for his career).
But his career on-base percentage is .351, and I totally agree with longtime buddy Buster Olney on what the Cardinals' 2015 lineup could look like:
4. Russell Martin Will Help Blue Jays
Five years is a long time for a 31-year-old catcher, but the $82 million Toronto bestowed on Russell Martin this week has a solid chance to be a good investment.
Plus, let's be honest: The fact that Martin was born in Ontario and lives in Quebec makes this a perfect fit.
"He's Canadian," one industry source says. "American guys just don't want to go to Toronto. Martin is Canadian, so, finally, it's a fair fight. The Blue Jays usually have to outbid people to get them to come to Canada."
The Jays love Martin's .402 on-base percentage with the Pirates last year (and his career .354 OBP), his leadership skills and the way he handles a pitching staff. And they love his potential to work with young pitchers like Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris.
If some of that group progresses, and Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey continue to do their thing, the Jays, who went 83-79 and finished five games out of the second wild card last summer, can be better.
5. This Week in the NL Central
The Cardinals, who acquired outfielder Jason Heyward and traded the enigmatic Shelby Miller, are better.
The Pirates, who signed A.J. Burnett but took a huge hit in losing Russell Martin to the Blue Jays, are worse. (Francisco Cervelli? Seriously?).
The Cubs, who would not go to five years on Martin, stayed the same (but need to get much, much better).
6. Free-Agent Power Rankings
My weekly take as agents bluster, suitors cluster and bean counters muster the courage to write those checks...
1. Pablo Sandoval (.279/.324/.415, 16 HR, 73 RBI): The Roly Poly One visits Boston. Red Sox Nation is fitted for Panda heads while holding breath.
2. Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46, 1.10 WHIP): The Red Sox reportedly made their offer, per ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes, after Lester spent Tuesday visiting with the Cubs and former Boston exec Theo Epstein. Next up: Lester is scheduled to spend Thursday visiting with the Braves (maybe John Hart can convince him he's a former Red Sox exec, too).
3. The Oakland Athletics as a haven for breakfast: Billy "Country Breakfast" Butler signs a three-year, $30 million deal to join Coco Crisp! Now, if only hitting coach Chili Davis hadn't already left for Boston...
4. Adam LaRoche (.259/.362/.455, 26 HR, 92 RBI): Now that they've signed over the title for all of South Florida to Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins are looking for someone to hit behind him in their lineup, and LaRoche is someone they're aggressively pursuing, writes ESPN's Jayson Stark. That, or the Marlins are simply looking for someone to fluff Stanton's pillows and iron his dress shirts.
5. Francisco Liriano (7-10, 3.38, 1.30 WHIP): Brother, can we show you something that's not in a Max Scherzer or Jon Lester?
7. How Badly Do the Tigers Want to Win?
Answer: Incredibly badly. (Dear Sister Noelita, apologies, that doesn't sound like proper English, does it?)
Seriously, when they knocked off the one necessity of their winter—re-signing Victor Martinez—what was especially cool was seeing owner Mike Ilitch at the press conference.
See, Ilitch rarely ventures out into public anymore. He's 85, and he needed a walker to get to the podium. But he was determined to see one of his favorite players.
"I didn't know he was coming," Martinez told Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press. "I was so happy to see him. That just made this day even more special for me and my family. He's such a tremendous man because he wants to win so badly for this city, and he's built a family atmosphere that you want to be a part of. You just don't see that much today.
"I knew that I wanted to be here, and Mr. I was a big part of that."
8. Salad Days Ahead for White Sox?
Admit it: You thought the rest of that headline was going to have something to do with Pablo Sandoval, didn't you?
Now that we've got that cleared up, just wanted to make sure you realize that Jose Abreu was named AL Rookie of the Year in a unanimous vote last week, and he finished fourth in the AL MVP balloting. And Sox ace Chris Sale finished third in AL Cy Young voting.
New GM Rick Hahn is doing a lot of good things on Chicago's South Side, and the Sox have some serious pieces to build around.
9. Do You Remember?
Came across this excellent story in The State newspaper (Columbia, South Carolina) on a certain man who once was a big name in Cincinnati and Boston. If you've wondered what former infielder Pokey Reese is up to, here you go.
9a. Rock 'n' Roll Lyric of the Week
I have many weaknesses (pizza, The Wonder Years, pets, oh my, the list goes on and on), and one of them remains a place where I long ago met several good friends with whom I remain close to this very day: my old high school.
Oh, did I mention that high school football also is on that list? I get all mushy over the great Friday Night Lights television show. I'm telling you, it's ridiculous.
So, in that vein, here's wishing the best of luck to my Monroe (Michigan) St. Mary Catholic Central Falcons in their Division-6 state semifinal game Saturday. And if you want to see a crazy high school play, check out this one, a 4th-and-8 prayer with five minutes left that set up the Falcons for a 27-26 win over Jackson Lumen Christi last weekend.
The coach, Jack Giarmo, was a classmate of mine. One of the linemen is the brother of our godson. One of the running backs is the nephew of another family we're close with. Good stuff, for them and all other high schoolers across the country threading their way through the playoffs this week. Here's to you, fellas:
"I rolled on as the sky grew dark
"I put the pedal down to make some time
"There's something good waitin' down this road
"I'm pickin' up whatever's mine
"Yeah runnin' down a dream
"That never would come to me
"Workin' on a mystery, goin' wherever it leads
"Runnin' down a dream
— Tom Petty, "Runnin' Down a Dream"
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.
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