Making the Call on Week 12's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions

The weirdness continues in the NFL.

After an odd Sunday, Week 12 got off to an unexpected start with the Oakland Raiders notching their first win of the year against the previously surging Kansas City Chiefs.

A massive performance by Oakland running back Latavius Murray highlighted the victory. Murray piled up 112 yards and two touchdowns on just four carries before getting knocked out with a concussion.

His performance was the difference in the game, and perhaps will be the difference in some fantasy lineups this weekend. Who will be some of the other difference-makers—positive or negative—for Week 12?

Start: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

Al Bello/Getty Images

By now you may have found out about the Hoth-like conditions in Buffalo this week. The weather is so bad that it has forced a change in location and date.

This is a Jets team that Watkins annihilated earlier this season, when he infamously dropped a touchdown before he hit the goal line before catching another long one later in the game. He wound up with just three receptions, but he gained 157 yards to go with that score.

That followed a two-touchdown performance against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Jets may be starting something called a Marcus Williams at cornerback, making this even more enticing. New York has gotten a bit better at defending receivers, but that defense has still given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position.

With the game now set in the cozy confines—and fast track—of Ford Field in Detroit, per NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal, look for Watkins to break out of his recent malaise.

Fantasy Prediction: Five receptions, 105 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Had this game been played in Buffalo, we'd be singing a different tune. In Detroit against that soft Jets defense, however, Watkins is primed to blow again.

Sit: Kenny Stills and Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Brandin Cooks has been knocked out for the season with a broken thumb, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. 

That puts fellow receivers Marques Colston and Kenny Stills in the limelight. They stand to benefit from the rookie's absence on the field, right?

Well, perhaps. But if you had to pick one, which would it be?

Quarterback Drew Brees has been notorious for spreading the ball around throughout his tenure in New Orleans, which has made for some volatile fantasy options outside tight end Jimmy Graham in recent years.

Even Graham hasn't been immune from the roller coaster this season, most recently putting up a line of three receptions for 29 yards.

There is simply too much volatility here to trust either of these guys outside, perhaps, a flex spot. Even then, touchdowns might be difficult to come by—Graham or running back Mark Ingram is likely to grab those in the red zone.

Colston Prediction: Four receptions, 45 yards, zero TDs

Stills Prediction: Five receptions, 65 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: There is just too much uncertainty here to really trust either of these guys.

Start: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

He keeps yo-yoing from start to sit, and this time Ryan Tannehill is back in the former column.

The Miami Dolphins quarterback has had a predictably depressed couple of weeks from a fantasy perspective thanks to tough matchups against the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills. This week, he should get a bit of a breather.

The Dolphins travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. It's not even going to be that cold—it'll be downright balmy for Denver at 45 degrees.

More to the point, as good as the Miami defense has been, it might be hard-pressed to stop the onslaught quarterback Peyton Manning and the Denver offense will bring, even if it is missing a couple of skill players.

True, the St. Louis Rams shut the Broncos down offensively last week, but that was a road game for Manning and Co. during which running back Montee Ball, receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Julius Thomas left the game due to injury—highly disruptive developments.

The Broncos are home this week, likely looking for blood.

All that to say, Tannehill will probably have to play catch-up in what oddsmakers deem to be a high-scoring affair.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-35, 250 yards, two TDs, one INT; six carries, 45 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: The matchup is better for Tannehill than it has been in recent weeks, and Miami might have to throw the ball more in Denver.

Sit: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The talent is all around him. So why is Matt Ryan struggling in the fantasy realm?

The Atlanta Falcons quarterback has been a huge disappointment despite having receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White in his arsenal. Perhaps now-retired tight end Tony Gonzalez was even more valuable than we thought.

This weekend, Ryan goes up against a Cleveland Browns defense that has given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Sure, it's a defense that just gave up 23 points to the Houston Texans in a home loss, but there weren't many fantasy points to go around in that tilt.

Many of those points did go to running back Alfred Blue. That's where the Falcons will move the ball, and it's why Ryan can't be trusted in the fantasy realm.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-37, 250 yards, two TDs, two INTs; one carry, five yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Ryan doesn't have a great matchup, and the Falcons may try to get the ground game going against a softer Browns run defense.

Start: Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

You have stashed Josh Gordon all season long, or perhaps you traded for the talented Cleveland Browns receiver at some point.

Why keep him on your bench when he is finally active? Well, perhaps there is a concern about a lower snap count, given he was limited in practice, as Kevin Jones of ClevelandBrowns.com wrote:

"

Gordon was limited in practice because the Browns coaching staff wants to ease in their All-Pro receiver, something he is completely embracing.

"I want them to do what they see fit and just use me as an asset wherever," said Gordon.

Coach Mike Pettine met with head trainer Joe Sheehan, strength and conditioning coordinator Paul Ricci as well as wide receivers coach Mike McDaniel to formulate a plan to make sure the Browns are utilizing their offensive weapon in the correct way.

"

Whether this means he will see a limited snap count Sunday is barely relevant—Gordon can score from anywhere on the field. If he plays half the snaps, he should still be in fantasy lineups.

Pittsburgh Steelers rookie receiver Martavis Bryant played anywhere between 40 and 60 percent of his snaps when he was first activated this season, and he was unstoppable in the fantasy realm.

Fantasy Prediction: Four receptions, 70 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Gordon is too good to bench, even if he won't play a full game.

Sit: Owen Daniels, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Owen Daniels isn't a sexy option at tight end, but he might be enticing this week for teams who might be without some injured guys like Denver's Julius Thomas or Indianapolis' Dwayne Allen.

The Baltimore Ravens tight end has had some nice games, and it seems like this might be a good matchup against the New Orleans Saints. Upon further inspection, however, nothing could be further from the truth.

Why? Because the Saints are giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, naturally. Here is what Brandon Niles of 4for4.com has to say about Daniels' prospects this week:

"

Daniels is a reliable, albeit unspectacular player in that offense.

This week, Daniels faces a Saints defense that has struggled this season, but has actually shut down the tight end position so far. Daniels remains a middle-of-the-road option for fantasy owners and we have him just outside the top ten, making him a borderline starter in most leagues.

"

Despite the doubt, Niles is more optimistic about Daniels than even I am.

Fantasy Prediction: Three receptions, 25 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: The Saints are a terrible matchup. Don't be fooled by the false potential.

Start: Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Now that Ahmad Bradshaw is out of the picture, it's time for Trent Richardson to shine.

Well, shine is a relative term, but the de facto Indianapolis Colts workhorse will certainly have all the opportunity in the world to do so going forward. Bradshaw is out for the year, per The Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder, and the Colts don't really have much behind Richardson.

Opportunity is absolutely key in fantasy output, and Richardson should have plenty of volume by default. If the Colts get way out in front of the Jacksonville Jaguars—oddsmakers have them as 14-point favorites this week—then he could see even more touches than normally scheduled.

Fantasy Prediction: 23 attempts, 95 yards, one TD; five receptions, 40 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Richardson was slated for a big workload regardless of the matchup now that Bradshaw is out, and a big lead will probably lead to additional touches in the second half.

Sit: Jonas Gray, RB, New England Patriots

AJ Mast/Associated Press

You blew the rest of your waiver-wire budget on Jonas Gray after his four-touchdown supernova Sunday night. Congratulations—now bench him.

This is the New England Patriots, after all. Have we learned nothing from years of shenanigans? 

Gray is a wonderful story, to be sure. The Patriots are the young journeyman's third team, and he was on the practice squad just a few weeks ago. But trusting him going forward is like putting your faith in a card dealer at an underground poker tournament.

That is all not to mention the fact the Patriots signed LeGarrette Blount after the Pittsburgh Steelers unceremoniously dumped him this week. 

Blount, you might recall, became a big part of the Patriots offense toward the end of last season, at least for a few games. He could easily step in and steal a good chunk of Gray's playing time right away.

Then there is the fact the Patriots are going up against the league's top run defense in the Detroit Lions this week.

Fantasy Prediction: 10 attempts, 45 yards, zero TDs; one reception, 10 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Bill Belichick's history should be enough to scare you away, but the Lions defense and Blount's arrival should take you over the top.

Start: Isaiah Crowell or Terrance West, RB, Cleveland Browns

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

One of the oddities that occurred this week was Ben Tate's release from the Cleveland Browns.

He was disgruntled, sure, but the Browns gave him one of the biggest offseason contracts at his position—granted, it was a mere $6.2 million over two years—and he has contributed positively this season.

His release fully paves the way for rookies Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West to shine, however.

The duo has seemingly traded off big games this season. Two weeks ago, West carried the ball 26 times for 94 yards and a touchdown. Crowell scored in that game too, and he took the lead last game with 14 carries for 61 yards.

West was all but an afterthought in that one, carrying the ball five times. It wasn't a game conducive for a strong showing on the ground, given the Browns were down for much of the game.

This week, the Browns get the abhorrent Atlanta Falcons run defense, one that is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.

Crowell Prediction: 13 attempts, 75 yards, zero TDs; three receptions, 25 yards, zero TDs

West Prediction: 17 attempts, 80 yards, one TD; one reception, five yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Both these backs are worth starting—Crowell on upside alone—especially given the matchup.

Start: Zach Mettenberger, QB, Tennessee Titans

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Last week we saw rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger nearly take down a traditional power that has been on the rise once again.

He put up 263 yards and a pair of touchdowns in an efficient performance that nearly felled Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

This week, the Tennessee Titans quarterback travels to Philadelphia to take on an Eagles defense that is unlikely to relinquish a big lead early.

Oddsmakers have the Eagles as 10.5-point favorites this week, meaning the Titans could be in for a long haul trying to keep up on the scoreboard. A big deficit means a bunch of passing attempts are likely in store for Mettenberger.

Fantasy Prediction: 21-of-32, 300 yards, two TDs, one INTs

Final Verdict: It's a bit of a Hail Mary, but the likelihood of a high-scoring game along with a good matchup makes Mettenberger a nice option for quarterback-needy fantasy teams.

All fantasy statistics and rankings courtesy of FFtoday.com. All odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Follow @AlexMiglio