Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers hit the road for an NFC North matchup with the Minnesota Vikings Sunday after outscoring their last two opponents 108-34 at home. While the Packers are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at Lambeau Field this season, they are just 2-3 on the road, with an identical 2-3 mark vs. the line.

Point spread: Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.4-20.0 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay is playing as well as any team in the NFL right now, using its home field to embarrass opponents recently, and now it gets to take that show on the road.

The Packers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Vikings and 6-3 vs. the line in their last nine road games against NFC North opponents.

Defensively, they are starting to play a lot better as well. But the key to winning and covering on the road in this spot is quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has taken the passing game to another level lately, so much so that he has been able to take the fourth quarter off in each of the last two games.

Rodgers might get that chance again even if the Pack do not score 50 points.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota has been outstanding as a home underdog recently, going 8-2 SU and ATS in the past 10 games under that scenario. The latest win for the Vikings in that situation came against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, as they earned a 41-28 victory as 5.5-point home dogs.

Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater seems to play better at home as well, leading Minnesota to a 29-26 win against the Washington Redskins as a one-point favorite before the team’s bye week.

The Vikings also still played solid defensively in a 21-13 road loss to the Chicago Bears last week and hope to turn in an even better effort in front of the home fans to stay within double digits like they did there.

Smart Pick

Green Bay is playing better than any team in the division at the moment and can finally take over sole possession of first place with a victory and loss by the Detroit Lions on the road against the New England Patriots.

The Packers host the Patriots next week in what could be a preview of this year’s Super Bowl matchup, and they want to stay sharp going into that game.

Minnesota has played well at times this season but is no match for Green Bay, even at home.

The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites, including four straight covers. Take them again here to make it five in a row.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in seven of Green Bay's last eight games on the road
• Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last eight games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.