Bad MLB Contracts That Can Actually Be Trade Assets This Winter
There's an long-standing theory in sports—baseball included—that bad contracts are immovable objects, destined to bury the team holding them until they finally run their course.
Yet year after year, we see holes blown in that argument.
Whether it's a player's history of success, a shortage of available options at a particular position or a combination of both, players with bad contracts are not always assets without value.
Not all bad contracts are created equal, of course. Philadelphia will still likely have to pay a team to take Ryan Howard off its hands, for example, and there isn't a team crazy enough to consider trading for, say, Alex Rodriguez, something the New York Yankees would unquestionably welcome.
But there are plenty of contracts that have gone sour—both on paper and in the court of public opinion—that can still command a significant return for the team on whose payroll it currently resides.
Let's take a look at five players who have those kinds of contracts and—while their current teams may need to pick up some of the cash remaining on their deals—are actually valuable trade chips that could be played this winter.
Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
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Remaining Contract: Eight years, $118 million, $15 million team option for 2023*
2014 Stats: 157 G, .263/.314/.333, 38 XBH (2 HR), 41 RBI, 27-of-42 SB
Elvis Andrus took a step in the wrong direction in 2014, at the plate, on the bases and in the field. His .647 OPS ranked 18th among 22 qualified shortstops, and he led the American League in failed stolen base attempts (15).
Additionally, advanced metrics were unkind to his work defensively, grading him as well below average in both defensive runs saved (minus-13) and UZR/150 (minus-4.4). Between his diminished production and his albatross of a contract, Andrus would appear to be one of the most immovable players in baseball.
But at 26, he should be entering the prime of his career, and it's not as if he hasn't had success before. Andrus made the All-Star team in 2010 and 2012, hitting a combined .277/.346/.348 over that three-year period.
Even with his shoddy defense in 2014, Andrus still grades out as an above-average defender over the course of his career. The same can't be said for the bulk of the shortstops available this winter, from Asdrubal Cabrera to Jed Lowrie to Hanley Ramirez.
Believe it or not, the chances of Andrus returning to his previous level of production—or even getting better—are as good, if not better than him continuing on his downward spiral.
There's value in that, and there are enough teams in need of a long-term answer at the position that would give up a quality package for Andrus, so long as Texas picked up the bulk of the money left on his deal.
*Option in 2023 becomes guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 plate appearances in 2021-22. If he's traded or claimed on waivers, that option becomes a player option. He can block trades to 10 teams beginning in 2016 and will have full no-trade protection if he's traded. Andrus can opt out of the deal after the 2018 and 2019 seasons.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
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Remaining Contract: Three years, $53 million
2014 Stats: 70 G, .238/.292/.431, 27 XBH (11 HR), 38 RBI, 3-of-3 SB
Some may bristle at the notion that Carlos Gonzalez sits with a bad contract, but the simple fact is that when he's not playing at Coors Field, the 29-year-old outfielder looks a whole lot like an average player.
The numbers don't lie:
| Home | .329 | .387 | .601 | .988 | 202 (82) |
| Away | .258 | .314 | .437 | .750 | 132 (54) |
Average players don't get paid more than $15 million a season.
Those extreme splits, coupled with his significant salary and the fact he has not been able to stay healthy, averaging 90 games a season over the past two years, make his contract fall on the bad side of the tracks.
So while the Rockies are willing to listen to offers for him, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, all those factors are sure to scare off some potential suitors.
But offense is at a premium these days, and a three-year pact isn't as onerous as some of the other deals that players believed to be available this winter carry with them.
If a team believes that CarGo can raise his level of production on the road—and that his injuries have been more unlucky than anything else—he's a far more likely candidate to pull in a significant package of talent in a trade than his highly touted (yet oft-injured) teammate, who we'll get to in a moment.
Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Remaining Contract: Five years, $107 million
2014 Stats: 150 G, .287/.346/.506, 66 XBH (25 HR), 89 RBI, 8-of-13 SB
While his return to health in 2014 found Matt Kemp producing at a fairly high level, he remains perhaps the least likely of Los Angeles' high-priced outfielders to move this winter.
His days of swiping 25-plus bases a year are over, but Kemp still has enough speed to stretch balls hit down the line and into the outfield gaps for extra bases, and he still has something that teams are desperate to get their hands on—power from the right side of the plate.
Kemp has averaged 24 home runs and 84 RBI a season since 2009 despite appearing in only 73 games in 2013, when he was limited to six long balls.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that wouldn't love to add that kind of a bat into the middle of their lineup, especially in the American League, where the wear-and-tear on Kemp's body could be limited by using him as a designated hitter once or twice a week.
The team's new president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman, acknowledged during a recent news conference that the Dodgers were likely to move at least one of their outfielders this winter, noting that it would be harder to part with Kemp than others. Per ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon:
"We just don't have any hard and fast rules. We're open to have any discussions. That doesn't mean that some aren't much more difficult to push across the finish line. Obviously what Matt has done, what Matt's capable of doing, is significant, especially in this day and age with the run-scoring environment the way it is. His ability in the batter's box is different.
"
The fact Kemp is different is what makes him so attractive. Not only can he hit for power, but he can hit for average as well, evidenced by his career .292 batting average.
He's a legitimate game-changer when he's healthy, which is why teams like the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners have been linked to the two-time All-Star for more than a year.
Unlike Andrus, for example, the Dodgers wouldn't have to pick up nearly as much of Kemp's deal to get a quality package of talent in return.
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Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Remaining Contract: Three years, $40 million
2014 Stats: 136 G, .243/.329/.370, 36 XBH (13 HR), 72 RBI, 0-of-4 SB
With both Miguel Montero and the Diamondbacks coming off a forgettable 2014 season, it's no surprise the club is listening to offers for nearly everyone on its roster.
While general manager Dave Stewart told MLB.com's Steve Gilbert that he's not shopping anyone, a rival executive tells The Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro that "they've definitely put him (Montero) out there."
It's true that not so long ago, Montero was one of the premier catchers in baseball. From 2009 to 2012, he averaged 14 home runs and 69 RBI a year while posting a .283/.361/.457 slash line and providing excellent defense behind the plate.
But since his five-year, $60 million contract extension kicked in at the start of the 2013 season, that player hasn't been seen anywhere near Chase Field. Instead, the Diamondbacks have seen Montero struggle to hit for average (.237) or get on base with any consistency (.324 OBP).
Yet enough teams are in need of an upgrade behind the plate, giving the Diamondbacks a valuable trade chip.
As another executive tells Piecoro, the Diamondbacks wouldn't necessarily have to pick up much of the money left on his deal to bring back a worthwhile return—though he notes that doing so would make such a haul easier to obtain:
"If they won't chew down any dollars, I'd say the return won't be as good as most think. It also depends on how motivated the acquiring club is."
Considering the dearth of starting-caliber catchers available and his overall profile, Montero represents the best option for teams looking for a backstop—and that will make it easier for the Diamondbacks to land something of value in exchange.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
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Remaining Contract: Six years, $114 million ($15 million team option in 2021 with $4 million buyout)
2014 Stats: 91 G, .340/.432/.603, 40 XBH (21 HR), 52 RBI, 1-of-2 SB
When Ken Rosenthal reported that Colorado was open to trading Troy Tulowitzki this winter, you can bet nearly every team in baseball began crunching numbers and trying to figure out whether they could fit his burdensome contract into their payroll.
That's the kind of reaction you'd expect to get when the best shortstop in baseball suddenly becomes available.
The club isn't going to move Tulo as a traditional salary dump, given his ability and the fact that he's the face of the franchise. Unlike other players that have called Coors Field home over the years, the perennial MVP candidate has proven to be productive both at home and on the road.
But concerns about his ability to stay healthy—he's averaged 88 games over the past three seasons—are going to limit the return that Colorado could expect to receive. Those concerns would become far less of an obstacle to get around if, say, the Rockies picked up $60 million of the money left on his deal.
Teams in need of a shortstop would be more likely to gamble on a six-year, $54 million investment in Tulowitzki—and far more willing to give the Rockies a huge package of talent in the process.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Want to talk baseball? Find me on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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