Fantasy Football 2014: Five Week 12 Sleepers to Start in a Pinch

Week 12 marks the final two byes of the fantasy football 2014 campaign. Pittsburgh and Carolina owners must scramble, while the rest of us relax. Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger owners can find reprieve in Andrew Hawkins, Tre Mason and Josh McCown.

What, no Jonas Gray? I’ll be sure to mention why he was excluded from the top running back spot; I promise it’s far more emotional than empirical.

Owners who are unsure of Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders’ questionable forecasts will find useful game-day substitutes, while Brandin Cooks and Ahmad Bradshaw owners can find reliable replacements.

"

Confirming that @brandincooks had successful thumb surgery & according to dr, should return in approx 4-6 weeks.

— Jeff Sperbeck (@jeffsperbeck) November 17, 2014

"

A sleeper in this context is any player who is available in approximately 50 percent or more of ESPN fantasy leagues with a favorable matchup per ESPN’s fantasy points against statistic. Rankings and point totals are based on scoring leaders in ESPN standard leagues.

Defense/Special Teams: Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Week 11 marked the first in recent memory that Jacksonville’s opposing D/ST wasn’t the obvious streaming start.

Oh right, that’s because the Jags were on a bye.

Indianapolis boasted a solid defensive record at home after a 30-point trouncing from the Eagles in Week 2, allowing just 30 points total to Tennessee (17), Baltimore (13) and Cincinnati (0). Then Tom Brady and the Patriots waxed the Colts for 42 points on Sunday night.

Blake Bortles and the league’s worst offense in D/ST points against (18.9 points per game) should suffice to drag Indianapolis back on track.

In fact, the Colts scored their only D/ST touchdown on a pick-six in Bortles’ Week 3 debut. Indianapolis finished with 23 points in its best road performance to date.

Count on the Colts bouncing back at home.

Honorable mention

• San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams
• Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Week 11 results

• Minnesota Vikings (featured), finished tied for 24th with minus-one point
• San Diego Chargers, fifth with 10
• Washington Redskins, tied for 17th with four

It was a crazy week for fantasy defenses: Tampa Bay nearly matched its season total (22) in one game against the lame-duck Redskins (21).

Tight End: Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

USA TODAY Sports

It’s perceived that Fleener is second fiddle to Dwayne Allen in Andrew Luck’s eyes, but the numbers on Pro Football Reference disagree:

	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TDs	Pts
Allen	40	26	375	7	75
Fleener	52	29	439	4	64

The disparity is even closer in the red zone, according to stats on CBS Sports:

	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TDs	Pts
Allen	7	6	29	4	26
Fleener	8	4	20	3	20

Fleener is an obvious stud this week if Allen can’t go, which is still unclear. Indianapolis re-signed Weslye Saunders Tuesday, per Mike Wells of ESPN.com, indicating the Colts aren’t optimistic about Allen’s prospects.   

Fleener—available in 73.5 percent of ESPN leagues—is the perfect sub for Greg Olsen owners who are dealing with the bye or Julius Thomas owners who are unsure about his status for Sunday.

Honorable mention

• Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
• Niles Paul, Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers

Week 11 results

• Jared Cook (featured), tied for 28th with one
• Jordan Reed, tied for 20th with two
• Kyle Rudolph, tied for 36th with zero

Kudos if you dug deeper and ignored this advice in lieu of Garrett Graham (nine), Chase Coffman (nine) or Jermaine Gresham (13). The trio was started in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues, combined.

Wide Receiver: Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

David Richard/Associated Press

Hawkins dispelled any notion there will be hard feelings when Josh Gordon steps in on Sunday, according to Pat McManamon of ESPN.com:

"

More than the talent on the field, I think what we’re most excited about is to get Josh back for his personality. Just to be around the guys. He’s a great teammate, something a lot of people don’t understand about Josh. Josh Gordon literally to any of the 32 teams in the NFL would be a significant upgrade.

"

Hawkins stands to profit from Gordon’s presence even if he’s rusty, given his league-leading 117.6 yards per game average in 2013.

Plus, Atlanta ranks 27th in wide receiver points allowed, giving up 24.2 PPG. Hawkins already matched up nicely against this defense without Gordon drawing attention on the other side.

The uncertainty Gordon creates should be enough to make Hawkins a fine call-up for Antonio Brown and Kelvin Benjamin owners on a bye, Emmanuel Sanders owners who are unclear about his concussion status or Brandin Cooks owners who are in need of a replacement.

Honorable mention

• Malcolm Floyd, San Diego Chargers vs. St. Louis Rams
• Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens

Week 11 results

• Jordan Matthews (featured), tied for seventh with 16
• Greg Jennings, tied for 82nd with zero
• Wes Welker, tied for 62nd with two

Let’s just hope Matthews was available in your league and you stopped reading.

Running Back: Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers

Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

Jeff Fisher-led backfields tend to feature a premier runner, whether it was Eddie George or Chris Johnson in Tennessee or Zac Stacy in St. Louis last season. This season, Mason has clearly taken on the bell-cow role, while Stacy and Benny Cunningham spar over the table scraps.

Mason leads the trio overall since Week 7:

	Touch	Yds	TDs	Pts
Mason	94	370	1	41
Cunningham	31	191	2	27
Stacy	8	37	0	3

St. Louis faces the 16th-ranked San Diego defense in running back points allowed (16.0 PPG). The Chargers might stack the box and make Shaun Hill beat them in the passing game, but that was presumably the strategy in Week 11 when Mason racked up 113 yards on the Broncos.

Mason will rescue Le’Veon Bell owners who are suffering through the bye, or Montee Ball and Ahmad Bradshaw owners who are looking for a season-long replacement.

Oh, and why not Jonas Gray? He’s certainly a must-add this week, but starting him against the league’s eighth-ranked defense in RB PA is a huge risk—especially considering Bill Belichick’s tendency to switch up the game plan each game.

Honorable mention

• Jonas Gray, New England vs. Detroit Lions
• Knile Davis, Kansas City at Oakland Raiders

Week 11 results

• C.J. Anderson (featured), 12th with 10
• Ryan Mathews, tied for 19th with eight
• Carlos Hyde, tied for 40th with two

Anderson is looking at another start for the Broncos with Montee Ball back on the sidelines with Ronnie Hillman.

Quarterback: Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

McCown and Lovie Smith are rolling into the Windy City eager to prove themselves against their former employer. Smith’s return is secondary to McCown’s in this matchup, as the journeyman faces Marc Trestman, the mentor who put his career back on track.

It’s difficult to say who truly holds the advantage when a quarterback returns to take on the team he once led. Trestman can disclose and predict McCown’s weaknesses during practice, but only McCown gets to take the field with the knowledge he gained from his last two seasons in Bears camp.

Although Tampa Bay continues to headline as a talent-stacked team that can’t reach its potential, McCown played admirably in four complete games. His 17.0 average PPG is right in between Jay Cutler (17.5) and Philip Rivers (16.8). He’s ranked 22nd out of 38 eligible QBs, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).   

Even if the Bears have a schematic advantage, they rank 29th in QB PA, allowing 19.5 PPG. Anyone not named Teddy Bridgewater (eight) has posted at least double-digit fantasy points against them.

Ben Roethlisberger owners slogging through the bye can count on McCown to grant his revenge upon the team that both nurtured and scorned him.

Honorable mention

• Kyle Orton, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
• Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 11 results

• Robert Griffin III (featured), tied for 19th with 12
• Teddy Bridgewater, 23rd with eight
• Josh McCown, tied for fifth with 19