Ranking the Most Overpriced Assets on the MLB Offseason Trade Market
There are five main negatives I looked at for a player to qualify for this list: age, injury history, current contract, rumored acquisition cost and opportunity cost.
In a perfect world, teams would trade for young players who are either signed to team-friendly deals or are young and not injury-prone, so signing them to a long-term deal would be a smart move. While the cost in those deals will be higher, the value of high-end, cost-controlled prospects around the league is greater than ever, so it is even more important to get equal value in return.
Some players on this list have multiple concerns, and some only have one. But they all have one thing in common: I wouldn't want my team to trade for any of them. I will list other options, either on the trade market or in free agency, teams should pursue instead.
Rockies OF Carlos Gonzalez
1 of 5
Biggest Reasons He's on This List: Injury history, current contract, rumored acquisition cost.
Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post beat me to the punch with his article Tuesday on the problem the Rockies face with their two best players: "Trades for Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez slowed by injuries, money:"
"There are so many hurdles," one GM said. "You need to find out how healthy they really are. Then you have to ask if the Rockies would be willing to take on some of that money. I'm not saying (a trade) won't happen, but I think it would be a longshot this winter."
[...]
Added another GM: "A trade right now doesn't seem to make much sense. We're not in the market for Tulo, but if we were, I'd want to see what he does on the field first — during spring training and early next season.
"When Tulo is healthy, he's one of the five best players in the game. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better player. But right now, it's about him staying healthy. I think there is a similar feeling about Gonzalez.
"
Carlos Gonzalez is only 29 years old. He's a two-time All-Star. He finished third in the 2011 NL MVP vote and is a career .294 hitter with a .520 slugging percentage. However, last season was by far his worst full season in the majors.
Limited to 70 games due to injury, Gonzalez hit just .238 with only three stolen bases (after averaging 22 the previous four seasons) and cost his team five runs defensively after saving 10 in 2013, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
In addition, his career home/road splits are very worrisome:
| BA | HR | RBI | OBP | SLG | |
| Home | .329 | 82 | 295 | .387 | .601 |
| Road | .258 | 54 | 162 | .314 | .437 |
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported on the asking price for both Tulowitzki and Gonzalez:
"One rival official said the Rockies are willing to move Tulowitzki and Gonzalez but only for returns that would reflect their contributions when healthy. In other words, no discount for injury.
If the Rockies hold firm in that stance, it would be difficult for them to move either player this offseason. But if they are willing to be creative — and in Tulowitzki’s case, include cash in any deal — they could reshape their club dramatically.
"
Gonzalez is owed $53 million over the next three seasons. Considering his injury-riddled past, a team could do a lot better than acquire his contract AND pay a full price on a player who clearly is not the player he once was.
Other Trade Options: Boston Red Sox OF Yoenis Cespedes, Atlanta Braves OF Justin Upton
Potential Free-Agent Options: Yasmani Tomas, Nelson Cruz
Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki
2 of 5
Biggest Reasons He's on This List: Injury history, current contract, rumored acquisition cost, age.
I'm going to re-post a part of Patrick Saunders' article in The Denver Post just in case you crafty readers skipped ahead of the Gonzalez slide. If you already read it (I hope you did!) then feel free to skip on down:
"There are so many hurdles," one GM said. "You need to find out how healthy they really are. Then you have to ask if the Rockies would be willing to take on some of that money. I'm not saying (a trade) won't happen, but I think it would be a longshot this winter."
Added another GM: "A trade right now doesn't seem to make much sense. We're not in the market for Tulo, but if we were, I'd want to see what he does on the field first — during spring training and early next season.
"When Tulo is healthy, he's one of the five best players in the game. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better player. But right now, it's about him staying healthy. I think there is a similar feeling about Gonzalez.
"
I couldn't agree more with what one of the executives said. When healthy, Troy Tulowitzki is one of the five best players in baseball. In just 91 games last season, he had 21 home runs, a .340 batting average, a career-high .603 slugging percentage and was likely on his way to earning his first MVP award.
The problem is he couldn't stay healthy, and he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since 2009.
Tulowitzki is owed $118 million with a $15 million club option for 2021. He's missed 56 games on average each of the past five seasons. Read that again. Over the past five seasons he's missed 281 games or 37 percent of his team's games. Heading into his age-30 season and coming off hip surgery, the odds of his suddenly becoming a healthy player are slim to none.
As I mentioned on the last slide, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Rockies' asking price would be set as if Tulowitzki doesn't have an injury history and will reflect his Hall of Fame potential. As great as he is, considering his age, contract and cost in terms of prospects, no team should reasonably consider trading for him.
Other Trade Options: Chicago Cubs SS Starlin Castro
No Potential Free-Agent Replacement Options
White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez
3 of 5
Biggest Reasons He's on This List: Age, rumored acquisition cost, opportunity cost.
Alexei Ramirez made his first All-Star Game last season.
As a 32-year-old, Ramirez hit .273 with 15 home runs and 74 RBI. He had the eighth-highest WAR among shortstops and since 2010 has the fourth-highest WAR, according to FanGraphs (both links here).
In addition to his consistency on the field, his one-year contract for $10 million for 2015 is a great value, especially for a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers who just need a stopgap for their top prospect, Corey Seager.
It's not a coincidence that they're aggressively pursuing him, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale. For a team like L.A., if it could send back a player like Andre Ethier and a prospect, it could be a win-win for both sides.
However, there are other teams such as the New York Mets, where the asking price is too high. According to the New York Daily News' Andy Martino, the Chicago White Sox are looking for top prospects in exchange for Ramirez, such as Mets right-handers Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero, or a proven starter, such as Zack Wheeler.
As consistent as Ramirez has been, teams need to make trades for what we can expect in the future, not what has been done in the past.
FanGraphs projects Ramirez to be slightly above-average next season with a 2.3 WAR, so to have to trade a top prospect for a 33-year-old shortstop who is signed for just one season doesn't make a lot of sense while there are cheap, high-upside players in free agency who will cost significantly less.
Other Trade Options: Cubs SS Starlin Castro
Potential Free-Agent Options: Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew
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Rangers SS Elvis Andrus
4 of 5
Biggest Reasons He's on This List: Current contract.
The idea of trading for a 26-year-old two-time All-Star who is signed through 2022 (with a 2023 team option) sounds like the perfect trade candidate, right?
Normally, yes, but when it comes to Elvis Andrus, the answer gets a little hazy when considering what it will cost to acquire him.
Before the 2013 season, the Texas Rangers gave Andrus an eight-year, $120 million extension, and nobody thought twice. He had just hit .286, saved a combined 15 runs defensively, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and was seemingly on the upswing.
Flash forward two years later, and Jim Bowden of ESPN is reporting the Rangers are listening to offers for him, also mentioning what they are looking for in return. His batting average and on-base percentage have declined each of the last two seasons, and his once prominent glove disappeared last year, costing the Texas Rangers 13 runs defensively, again according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Calvin Watkins of ESPN Dallas tried to explain his struggles, and FanGraphs' Mike Petriello believes Andrus will have value moving forward, even considering his contract. However, considering the length of his deal and the requirement to take on his contract and then some in terms of prospects, teams should find other options.
Other Trade Options: Cubs SS Starlin Castro
Potential Free-Agent Options: Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew
Phillies LHP Cole Hamels
5 of 5
Biggest Reasons He's on This List: Rumored acquisition cost, opportunity cost.
The problem for Cole Hamels doesn't necessarily have anything to do with him.
While he has a 17-23 record over the past two seasons, in 2014 he had a career-best 2.46 ERA, the second-lowest FIP (3.07) of his career and finished sixth in the CY Young race. What is hurting him is that the price the Phillies are setting for him is extremely high. CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury has the latest:
"Industry sources say the Phils are looking for at least three top prospects, two that can play right now and another that isn’t far away. The Cubs and Red Sox are two known suitors and both have the farm systems to get a deal done — if they are willing to meet the Phillies’ rightfully high asking price.
[...]
Hamels has a limited no-trade clause, but that shouldn’t be an impediment to a deal. Though he has said all the right things, Hamels is eager to pitch for a winner again. He is owed $96 million over the next four seasons and he’d be smart to have the Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers on his no-trade clause.
"
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported further on what the Phillies are up to:
"Speaking of Vazquez, the Phillies are doing background work on his makeup, as well as on the makeups of right-hander Matt Barnes and outfielder Mookie Betts.
Those are the kinds of prospects that the Phillies likely would request for Cole Hamels. Doesn't mean they would get them — Betts, in particular, seems untouchable —€“ but the Phillies have scouted the Red Sox extensively, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.
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So we have a high cost in terms of salary and a high cost in terms of prospects, but the biggest drawback may be the opportunity cost since there are nearly equivalent pitchers on the free-agent market who wouldn't require a trade. Here are stats for Hamels and two current free agents from 2011-2014:
| Age (in April 2015) | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K | |
| Cole Hamels | 31 | 856 | 48-38 | 2.99 | 1.10 | 810 |
| Max Scherzer | 30 | 817.1 | 70-24 | 3.52 | 1.19 | 897 |
| Jon Lester | 31 | 830 | 55-42 | 3.61 | 1.26 | 745 |
Jon Lester reportedly has a six-year offer worth between $110-120 million from the Boston Red Sox, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. Max Scherzer is projected to land a six- or seven-year deal for around $160 million, according to FanGraphs' Carson Cistulli.
With the player profiles being so similar, why would a team trade such a bounty of prospects to get Hamels when it can sign one of these guys and just give up a 2015 draft pick?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Other Trade Options: Baltimore Orioles RHP Bud Norris, Washington Nationals RHP Jordan Zimmermann
Potential Free-Agent Options: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields, Francisco Liriano, Kenta Maeda
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