NFL Week 12 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

Interestingly enough, we don't have many enormous spreads to work with in Week 12. That could be a coincidence due to contests between evenly matched teams, or it could be the result of contending squads feeling the heat of a playoff push.

Regardless, Vegas oddsmakers have kept things close this week—for the most part.

After many bettors felt their pockets lighten due to the Denver Broncos putting up just seven points on the St. Louis Rams in a double-digit-spread game in Week 11, recouping that lost money by wagering on another large spread in Week 12 seems like a great remedy.

There are two game to choose from in that category, and before we take an in-depth look at each one, here's an overview of the entire slate of games with corresponding odds and picks for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Kansas City at Oakland	KC -7.5	Chiefs	Kansas City has a great defense, and Oakland is having trouble scoring.
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3	Falcons	Cleveland couldn't contain Ryan Mallett, and Matt Ryan will give the team fits.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -11	Titans	See analysis below.
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5	Patriots	The Patriots are running like a well-oiled machine. Detroit sputtered in Week 11.
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1	Bengals	The Bengals are coming off a huge win, and their secondary will test Mallett.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -9	Packers	At this point of the year, there may not be a team that can stay within 10 points of the Packers.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -5	Buccaneers	Tampa Bay's passing game is much better, and Jay Cutler is still throwing interceptions.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -13.5	Colts	See analysis below.
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5	Bills	Kyle Orton took advantage of the Jets the fist time around, he'll do it again Sunday.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7	Cardinals	Arizona may not win in Seattle, but its defense is good enough to remain within seven points.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -4	Rams	San Diego isn't healthy, and the Rams are riding a great deal of momentum.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9	49ers	San Francisco hasn't been playing well, but Washington is downright terrible right now.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7	Broncos	Expect a nice rebound from Peyton Manning against a good Miami defense.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3	Cowboys	The Cowboys may not pick off Eli Manning five times, but they'll give him plenty of trouble.
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -3	Saints	Will the Saints lose three straight at home? The odds are against it.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 18.

Analyzing Biggest Spreads of Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5)

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Generally, picking the favorite with a spread of this size is just asking for a loss. However, in this case, going all-in on the Colts is the right move.

The biggest concern regarding Indianapolis is the injuries it suffered in Week 11 against the New England Patriots. Sure, that's a good reason to be scared of this spread, but here's why you shouldn't be.

Tight end Dwayne Allen looks to have a high ankle sprain, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter:

He's probably unlikely to play Sunday, but it's not as though the Colts lack at the position after him. Coby Fleener came on and performed admirably in Allen's absence, racking up seven receptions for 144 yards against the Patriots. Fleener figures to be the top dog at the position again this week, and he's no stranger to putting up numbers against Jacksonville, going for 49 yards and a touchdown in Week 3.

Running back Ahmad Bradshaw was lost for the season, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

That's a major blow, as Trent Richardson simply isn't a good option out of the backfield. Still, the Colts have survived without needing to run the football previously—they can do it again. Take their 40-24 drubbing of the New York Giants in Week 9, for example. In that contest, Indianapolis ran the ball a total of just 24 times, mostly late in the game.

Despite key injuries, the Colts are poised to put up some points on Jacksonville. After all, T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Donte Moncrief and Daniel Herron are all at Andrew Luck's disposal.

Now, here's one telling stat about the Jaguars: In 10 games this season, Jacksonville has scored more than 17 points in a single contest just twice. This isn't a team capable of lighting up the scoreboard, making an Indianapolis blowout win very likely.

Prediction: Colts 37, Jaguars 17

Tennessee Titans (+11) at Philadelphia Eagles

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Here's a perfect example of why it can be risky to take the favorite in a game featuring a double-digit spread. Sure, looking at these two teams on paper, the 7-3 Eagles should trounce the 2-8 Titans, right? Not so fast.

Tennessee's offense is beginning to come into its own with rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger getting more reps. Despite facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense known for tormenting inexperienced signal-callers Monday night, Mettenberger was able to complete 15 of his 24 passing attempts for 263 yards, two touchdowns and one interception for a passer rating of 110.2.

How did he do it? The Titans came into the game with an exceptional game plan that featured short, high-percentage passes to avoid the blitz and, when the time was right, double moves by wide receivers that allowed Mettenberger's strong arm to take the top off the defense. Here's an example, via NFL on CBS:

That may give the Eagles' 28th-ranked pass defense some trouble in Week 12.

Speaking of pass defenses, the Titans are ranked ninth in the league in that category. After intercepting Ben Roethlisberger in the end zone in Week 11, the team has tallied nine interceptions this season—and now it faces off against Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez was terrible against the Green Bay Packers. Sure, he threw for 346 yards and two touchdowns, but he completed only 26 of his 44 passing attempts, throwing two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) and losing two fumbles (again, one returned for a touchdown) in the process.

Tennessee has been susceptible against the run this season, but Eagles primary ball-carrier LeSean McCoy hasn't been able to get it going at all, averaging a mere 3.7 yards per carry and scoring just two rushing touchdowns this season.

While the Titans may not be well-rounded enough to pull a win out from under the Eagles in Week 12, they certainly have what it takes to keep this game close until the end—just like they did against Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Titans 26