Top Bounce-Back Candidates Available on the 2015 MLB Offseason Market
The headlines each MLB offseason are generally dominated by the market's superstar-caliber players.
It makes sense. Those are the guys who will be agreeing to big-money deals, and those are the guys who are often viewed as the missing piece that could push a team over the top in its pursuit of a championship.
However, scouring the market for potential bargains and taking a flier on a potential bounce-back candidate can be just as important in building a successful contender. Just look at last season, when guys like Chris Young, Joe Beimel, Pat Neshek and Casey McGehee were plucked from the scrapheap, only to wind up being key contributors for their respective teams.
So with that in mind, here is a rundown of the 10 most intriguing bounce-back candidates on the offseason market this time around as teams look to hit on the next big reclamation project.
SP Chad Billingsley
1 of 10
There was a time not too long ago when Chad Billingsley was one of the better young pitchers in the National League.
From the time he broke into the league as a 21-year-old in 2006 through his last full season in 2012, the right-hander went a combined 80-61 with a 3.66 ERA. His 16.7 WAR during that span was good for 33rd-best among all starting pitchers.
However, the 30-year-old made just two starts in 2013 and missed the entire 2014 season, as Tommy John surgery and a partially torn flexor tendon have kept him on the sidelines.
The Los Angeles Dodgers made the easy decision to decline their $14 million option on Billingsley this offseason, paying him a $3 million buyout, and that makes him one of the more interesting buy-low candidates on this year's market.
He will no doubt have to settle for a one-year deal chock-full of incentives, but he has a chance to be a real bargain if he's finally healthy.
1B/OF Mike Carp
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Mike Carp struggled mightily in limited action this past year, and he was sidelined for a stretch with a fractured foot, but he was one of the better part-time players in baseball during the Boston Red Sox's run to the World Series in 2013.
Splitting time between the corner outfield spots and first base, he hit .296/.362/.523 with 18 doubles, nine home runs and 43 RBI in just 216 at-bats.
However, those numbers fell to .175/.289/.230 with just six extra-base hits in 126 at-bats this past season, and the Texas Rangers claimed him off waivers in August.
Still just 28 years old, Carp has some legitimate power potential, and that is not the easiest thing to find via free agency these days.
This year's first base market is thin behind slugger Adam LaRoche, and teams looking for a platoon option or a low-cost left-handed bat off the bench could take a chance on Carp returning to his 2013 form.
RP Jesse Crain
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Jesse Crain has been one of the game's more reliable setup men throughout his career, posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 532 career appearances.
The right-hander was on his way to the best season of his career in 2013, as he had a 0.74 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 38 first-half appearances to earn a spot on the American League All-Star roster. However, a shoulder strain cost him the final 82 games of the year, and he never wound up pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays after they acquired him at the trade deadline.
He underwent shoulder surgery in October, and the Houston Astros gave him a one-year, $3.25 million deal two months later in hopes that he could return strong and give their bullpen a boost. Instead, the 33-year-old wound up missing the entire season recovering, and now he could be forced to settle for a minor league deal in an effort to recover some of his former value.
The chances he duplicates his brilliant 2013 numbers are slim, but he still has a chance to be a useful veteran arm for someone if he's healthy.
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2B/SS Stephen Drew
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To put it simply, Stephen Drew is just not as bad a player as his 2014 numbers showed.
After turning down a qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox, the free-agent market for Drew never materialized, and he wound up sitting in limbo until the Red Sox re-signed him in late May.
The 31-year-old went on to hit .162/.237/.299 with 14 doubles and seven home runs, splitting his 271 at-bats between the Red Sox and the Yankees, who acquired him at the deadline for utility man Kelly Johnson.
Now free of the dreaded qualifying offer, Drew will have an opportunity to go through a normal spring training with whatever teams winds up signing him, rather than playing catch-up all season like he did a year ago.
His rough numbers last season make it easy to forget how important Drew was for the Red Sox during their run to a World Series title in 2013. In his first season with the team, he hit .253/.333/.443 with 29 doubles and 13 home runs, which, combined with his plus defense, made him a 3.1 WAR player.
He will likely have to take a significant pay cut over the prorated $14.1 million salary he received last year, but he could land a multiyear deal this time around, and he has a good chance of being a bargain if he can come close to his previous level of production.
1B/OF Corey Hart
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After kicking the tires on a number of different hitters, including Nelson Cruz, the Seattle Mariners settled on signing Corey Hart to fill their need for a right-handed power bat in the middle of the lineup.
Hart missed the entire 2013 season recovering from microfracture surgery on his right knee, and as a result, he was forced to settle for a one-year, $6 million deal. At the time, the contract looked like a win-win, as it was a budget-friendly move for the Mariners, and at the same time, it gave Hart a chance to rebuild some value for a run at a big payday the following offseason.
Things did not go as planned, though, as Hart hit just .203/.271/.319 with six home runs and 21 RBI in 232 at-bats. The injury bug bit again, as hamstring and knee injuries limited him to 68 games on the year.
Despite the limited production the past two seasons, Hart should still find some interested parties on the free-agent market this winter, as the 32-year-old still has intriguing power potential from the right side.
In his six full seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers from 2007-12, he was one of the more productive hitters in the National League. During that span, he hit .277/.335/.495 and averaged 24 home runs, 78 RBI and 13 stolen bases per year while posting a 16.3 WAR.
The injury-plagued season will likely mean another one-year deal for Hart, and perhaps this time around, he can provide the type of value the Mariners were hoping for last season.
RP Luke Hochevar
6 of 10
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft, Luke Hochevar never quite found his footing as a starter for the Kansas City Royals. In his first six big league seasons, he went a combined 38-59 with a 5.39 ERA and 1.403 WHIP, with 128 of his 132 appearances coming as a starter.
When the Royals overhauled their rotation with the additions of James Shields, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie prior to the 2013 season, Hochevar was relegated to the bullpen. Turns out that move could not have worked out better, as he emerged as one of the team's most reliable relief arms, posting a 1.92 ERA, 0.825 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 70.1 innings over 58 appearances.
Tommy John surgery ended his 2014 season before it ever started, though, and he was forced to watch from the sidelines during the Royals' run to the World Series.
He was back playing catch in September, and best-case scenario, he could be in position for a normal spring training heading into 2015.
"I’d like to think I could go into spring training like just any other time," he told Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star. "Especially with the timing of it, with it happening in March, and having my surgery done in March. That would be almost a full year."
SP Josh Johnson
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It's been a rocky four-year stretch for Josh Johnson since he won the NL ERA title in 2010, when he was 11-6 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.105 WHIP over 28 starts while pitching for the Miami Marlins. He opened the following season strong, posting a 1.64 ERA over his first nine starts, but shoulder inflammation sidelined him and effectively ended his season May 16.
Back healthy in 2012, he rebounded to go 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA (3.40 FIP) over 31 starts, making him one of the more sought-after trade targets on the market that offseason.
The right-hander wound up landing in Toronto in the blockbuster trade that also shipped Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to the Blue Jays, and he was expected to help lead the rotation alongside R.A. Dickey.
He instead finished 2-8 with a 6.20 ERA (4.62 FIP) in 16 starts, before injury struck again and he landed on the disabled list with a forearm strain. Not the season he was looking for in a contract year, and offseason surgery to remove bone spurs only further cut into his value.
The San Diego Padres took a chance on him with a one-year, $8 million deal, but he wound up missing the entire 2014 season after needing Tommy John surgery. Now, he will have to take a significantly smaller deal and prove he can still make an impact at the highest level.
For what it's worth, the 30-year-old seems to have a chip on his shoulder and appears to be interested in making good in San Diego.
"I really do want to come back. I really enjoyed my time here, so I would like to come back," he told Jeff Sanders of the The San Diego Union-Tribune. "I really feel like I have unfinished business here."
SP Justin Masterson
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Justin Masterson was one of the biggest breakout stars of the 2013 season, as he went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.202 WHIP and 195 strikeouts in 193 innings, making his first All-Star appearance in the process.
The Cleveland Indians explored an extension with the right-hander but were not willing to offer him a long-term deal, and he eventually turned down a three-year, $45 million offer in favor of entering his contract year with a chance to cash in on the rising price of free-agent pitching.
Fair to say things did not quite go according to plan, as the right-hander went a combined 7-9 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.632 WHIP between Cleveland and St. Louis and was left off the Cardinals' postseason roster when the playoff rolled around.
There is plenty of reason to believe the 29-year-old could be in for a bounce-back season, including a 4.50 FIP, a strong 58.2 percent ground-ball rate and an overly high 14.6 percent HR/FB ratio (via FanGraphs), as all of those numbers point to some positive regression ahead.
It will be interesting to see if any teams are willing to offer up a multiyear deal for Masterson this offseason, though his best approach might be to take a one-year deal and look to rebuild his value for another run at a payday next winter.
3B Will Middlebrooks
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Will Middlebrooks looked like one of the most promising young hitters in the game after a terrific showing as a rookie back in 2012. The then-23-year-old hit .288/.325/.509 with 14 doubles and 15 home runs in 267 at-bats, taking over for longtime Red Sox staple Kevin Youkilis and running with the opportunity.
Pegged by many as a potential breakout star for 2013, Middlebrooks instead took a big step backward and found himself demoted to the minors at the end of June. He finished the season hitting .227/.271/.425 with 18 doubles and 17 home runs in 348 at-bats.
The struggles continued this past season, as he was limited by calf and finger injuries and was generally ineffective when he was healthy. His .522 OPS was the second-lowest in all of baseball among players with at least 200 at-bats, and he wrapped up the season with a .191/.256/.265 line.
That likely means the end of the line for Middlebrooks in Boston, as the team has made third base a priority this offseason and is aggressively pursuing Pablo Sandoval, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
The power potential is still there, and he is still just 26 years old, so he seems like a prime candidate to rebound from a change of scenery. It all depends on whether or not the Red Sox decide to ship him out this offseason and where he lands if they do pull the trigger on a deal.
SP Brandon Morrow
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The No. 5 pick in the 2006 draft by the Mariners, Brandon Morrow has flashed front-line potential at various times in his big league career, but he has never been able to put it all together for one season.
Traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2010 season for reliever Brandon League, Morrow went 31-25 with a 4.16 ERA (3.49 FIP) in his first three seasons in Toronto, striking out 489 batters in 450.1 innings of work. He was at his best in 2012, going 10-7 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.115 WHIP. However, a strained oblique cost him 64 games, and that would be just the start of the injury woes to come.
The right-hander has managed just 23 appearances (16 starts) over the past two seasons, going 3-6 with a 5.65 ERA (4.78 FIP) and 1.551 WHIP.
It was a nerve issue in his forearm that shelved him in 2013 and a tendon sheath injury on his right index finger this past season, and now he hits the free-agent market with the stigma of being injury prone.
From a stuff standpoint, he still has it, as his FanGraphs page shows that his velocity has not taken a hit when he has managed to take the mound the past two seasons. He just has to prove he's healthy.
Somewhere in there, he is still the guy who struck out 17 hitters in a dominant one-hit shutout back in 2010. It's just a matter of whether or not he can stay on the field long enough to get back to that level.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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